orioles

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

Picking this is difficult; the Bolts have been looking great, despite an offense decimated by injuries, with Rivers making a strong run for MVP - while the Broncos are hitting their straps with Orton getting it done.

Denver stuck it to the Chiefs behind a solid run game, but the Chargers D ranks fourth against the run and I doubt Moreno is going to have the same joy tonight and, in any case, this is a passing offense that may well find itself behind early.

Rivers should make hay against an almost non-existent pass rush and a weak secondary, whereas Orton (second only to the man he faces today in total yards) can look to Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney and even Demaryius Thomas deep if the run really does get stuffed at the line.

With a road dog this potent on MNF receiving 9.5 points, I'm unwilling to commit the Orioles' fortune ATS, although San Diego should win SU.

If you want to take an interest, go Over 50 (10/11) as this may turn into a shoot out.

No bet

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Maybe there are really smart bettors out there who will tell you Vick’s performance last week, the weight of money for the Eagles, and the Giants stumbling last time out, means that the clever play is on New York with the points. Well, I’m as numb as a boot – hell, I don’t know what a whole bunch of nines are – so I’m staying on board the Philly choo choo.

The home fans are going to be blowing the doors off Lincoln Financial Field and you’re going to have to be made of stern stuff to go in there and try to stop the Eagles’ juggernaut.

I won’t rehearse Vick's performance last week, save to say if Kitna can bend over Terrell Thomas and Corey Webster with the deep ball, then heaven knows what the Vick/Jackson combination is going to do. Puppy love is still arrogant enough to step up to a blatant challenge, so as the Giants drop guys to cover the ball over the top, don’t be surprised to see Vick launch the ball and wait to see if Jackson can arrive 70yds downfield. Oh, and he will. All this means defenses are obsessed with one guy who can damage you in so many ways that other members of the offense come free to damage you too; look for a little love all round with guys like LeSean McCoy on the ground and Jason Avant in the slot contributing.

On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia are almost as intimidating and the loss of Steve Smith is huge for the Giants because if there is a gap in the armour, it’s against the pass. Nicks is big and talented but will draw double coverage and Manningham, although he will see the ball a lot, often has difficulties completing his routes. All that said, Eli Manning has put up impressive numbers against the Eagles in the past, so perhaps not all is lost. On the ground the Eagles’ defense is very solid, so Bradshaw could be in for a long night if he tries to pound it up the middle; he’ll most likely catch out of the backfield and will be a danger.

Manning will also have to deal with a nicked up OL, and the loss of David Diehl and Shaun O’Hara does not bode well; Shawn Andrews had better contain Trent Cole or things could get bloody. Andrews is listed as questionable, so I fear for the left side. Eli will have to get rid of the ball quickly and his receivers had better be where they’re supposed to be as the pressure comes.

I’ve got to say, I’m trying to rein in my eagerness here, but I’ll temper my excitement (it’s not safe at my age) and give the points and watch two good sides duke it out.

Pick: Eagles -3.5 (4pts)
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick 16/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Jeremy Maclin 11/10 (1pt)

I hate to go back to this bet, but with the state of the NY OL and the lack of pressure their D brought last week on Dallas’s lumbering OL (and Vick’s mobility) this spread seems out of whack. I know the Giants haven't given any sacks recently, but really ...

Pick: Sacks Supremacy: NY Giants/Philadelphia Sell at 0.4 (1pt/tick)

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Yum, yum. If there’s anything guaranteed to make my walnut cake and tea taste better it’s a matchup like this. Peyton on Tom and I’m taking the good ol’ boy over the hair do.

In Formula 1, you get the feeling that if you put any of the top guys in the best car, they would win the Drivers’ Championship. Well, this season Peyton turned up in the garage and found a Reliant Robin. Injuries have robbed him of key players, Wayne has lost some form and Garcon is catching like he’s visually impaired – but still 18 can get it done. He may get something of a break here as the Pats haven’t a terrifying pass rush and there are a couple of ropey corners deep in a New England secondary that lacks experience, but be warned – New England gave Pittsburgh fits last week with some creative blitzes and looks. All that said, no-one picks up a blitz like Manning and he will tear apart a defense that isn’t well organised. Collie looks as though he’s back and maybe that’ll allow Wayne to find some space.

Brady was misfiring a little this season – until last week. He handed Pittsburgh a prison pounding (30/43/350/3 TDs) and unless Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis turn up today, Indy may find themselves in difficulty. However, even if Brady gets comfortable in the pocket, Indy aren’t terrible against the pass and the received wisdom - run the ball all day to keep Manning off the field - isn’t really open to the Patriots who, like the Colts, have limited options on the ground and in any case, it’s not their instinct.

This will be intriguing to see; Bill Belichick scheming, Manning trying to out-think him at the line of scrimmage, Freeny and Mathis trying to get after Brady, who in turn will be looking downfield to guys like Branch and Welker.  This should be close, so I wouldn’t recommend investing heavily ATS.

Pick: Colts +4.5 (2pt)
Pick: 1st TD Collie 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Welker  7/5 (1pt)

Houston Texans @ New York Jets

I have the Jets as one of my teams to go all the way (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Oakland, as you ask) and I’ll take them against Houston today. The Texan deep threats are potent and Schaub is capable, and paired with Foster they present the kind of balanced offense that I like: the problem is, it’s the Jets D, Houston stink on the other side of the ball, and there are real injury concerns on the Oilers’ sideline.

Everyone knows you attack Houston vertically, and every week they get torched. They have no pass rush to speak of, their safeties, Bernard Pollard and Eugene Wilson, are poor, and CBs Glover Quin and Kareem Jackson are out of their rookie depth. That makes them vulnerable deep and underneath, so I expect Edwards, Holmes and Keller to find room and Sanchez could put up big numbers through the air. The problem for Houston is exacerbated by the rejuvenated LT and Greene one-two punch on the ground. The Texans are giving up the fifth most ypg rushing over the last four as their line begins to creak too.

Houston are far from toothless - Andre Johnson is superb and can do real damage (just ask the Jags: 9/146/1 last week) but he is banged up and of course, he will find Darrelle Revis everywhere he goes today. With the dominant corner getting his game back as he regains his fitness, that’s going to be a problem for Schaub/Johnson. Another problem is Schaub’s knee, which saw him in hospital this week and I still see him listed as questionable on the injury report. His ribs are damaged too and the Jets will surely come after him and Orlovsky/Leinart ain’t getting it done.

I’ll give the points and take some interest in a Houston team with a toothless pass rush and the Jets hunting an immobile Schaub.

Pick: NYJ -6.5 (3pts)
Pick: 1st TD Santonio Holmes 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Dustin Keller 6/5 (1pt)
Pick: Sacks Supremacy Jets/Texans Buy at 0.8 (0.5pt/tick

I just don't buy the Bears (they've already made that judgement look foolish!) so I'm hardly going to look kindly on them on the road off a short week; but this is a really tough game to call.

Cutler seems to have woken up, the Bears' O line has held up as they get players fit and playing their proper positions and Mike Martz has discovered the run game. The Miami pass rush and secondary are struggling with injuries and their third string trigger man is under centre, behind an O line with Berger gone and Long struggling, so it must be Chicago, right?

Cobblers.

The Vikes were gutless last week - they just laid down and died - and I expect the home team to bring a lot more pressure up front on Cutler tonight. As I said, the phins' pass rush is dinged up (Cameron Wake limped off early last game) but I'm just waiting for Cutler to regress back to the curve and begin getting sacked and turning it over, again. The Dolphins' secondary has Clemons missing and is prone to giving up TDs through the air, but I have faith that a more sophisticated defense can frustrate Chicago sufficiently to get the home team over the finish line.

Having Thigpen at QB isn't the poke in the blow hole you might expect, as his mobility may lend some variety to Miami's offense and he's hardly a fresh faced kid, but Peppers and Idonije will bring it all night and there may be a few sacks flying around. I can't promise last week's make-up of 208 on the spreads, but the game sack total might be worth a buy.

Thigpen has options downfield (I have no idea where their run game went, and the Bears defend the run too well anyway) against a secondary that is beatable, but he has to get the ball there, so look for him going to Fasano underneath as the outlet under pressure.

I'm favouring Miami for very basic reasons - they need it, they're at home on the short week and they're capable of pressuring Cutler, but this is NOT a game to get heavily involved.

Pick: Miami -1.5 (1pt)
Pick: 1st TD (no bet)
Pick: Anytime TD (no bet)

Pick: Buy Total Match Sacks 0.5pt/tick @ 5.2

Philadelphia @ Washington

I'm all over the Phillies here. The Eagles D has really begun to step up and the worst friend of mans' best friend is getting it done.

They go up against a Redskins side that looks as though it's in a very weird place: what Mike Shanahan was dong with that benching of McNabb is anyone's guess, but I hardly think it'll make for a happy sideline. As it is, McNabb is struggling with both hammys tweaked and has been below par all season - whether going up against his old team at home will fire him up remains to be seen.

McNabb has a limited set of options downfield (and Asante Samuel will sit on Santana Moss all game)and the run game is badly banged up, so he's going to have to look for guys like Cooley and Armstrong. Torain will carry the ball, but he's been limping around all season. Add in the protection problems which seem to be emerging for the 'Skins, with a sketchy O line and McNabb's lack of mobility (they have given up 17 sacks in the the last four games)and it doesn't look good; it gets worse - the Eagles D ranks in the top ten in all defensive categories.

On offense, Vick has improved elements of his game that used to be masked by his mobility. I never liked the way he would break up plays and then try and manufacture something: savvy and patient defenses could wait to exploit what was always on the brink of shambolic. Now he completes over 60% of his passes and has added some discipline and zip and hasn't thrown a pick in 125 attempts - although he got lucky last week when the Colts missed a couple, including a pick-six.

Vick has options downfield and likes to go deep, he should have some success against a weak Washington secondary and look for Vick to find DeSean Jackson deep at some point. LeSean McCoy mixes it up on the ground and is a nice option catching out of the backfield too, so the Eagles have the balance I like to see in a team I'm preparing to invest in.

This is one of the famous revenge games that punters seem to look for (it's a rotten system) but the Phils won't have forgotten Week 4.

Pick: Philadelphia -3.5 (4pts) 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick (0.5pt) 25/1
Pick: Anytime TD DeSean Jackson (1pt) Evens

Pick: TD Yardage Supremacy: Philadelphia/Washington Buy @ 20 (0.5pt)

Minnesota @ Chicago

The corpse that was the Vikings is beginning to twitch. Of course, it may be doing so in order to rise up and bite Childress’ head off, but what the hell, they might actually be a team after all and, truth be told, I think the Bears stink.

Petersen will lead the charge as usual and, although da Bears aren’t a pushover on the ground, ‘All day’ has owned Chicago in the past (179/3 last year; career 6 TDs) so expect him to do the usual. Chicago are more vulnerable downfield, which may be a weakness too far after Favre went crazy last week and had a career game (446 yards, 2 TDs) and again, he has murdered Chicago in the last couple of years.

Although Favre has commented this past week that he understands the Chicago D, Peppers literally played Bryant McKinnie off the park last year (although he has had a much stronger season this year) and Minnesota still have protection issues on the O line. Despite getting the ball out quickly, Favre still felt enough pressure last week to throw two picks and was sacked three times ... by Arizona. Peppers can be patchy these days, so I feel happy enough to invest in the Vikes.

I like Harvin in this game (even Camarillo and Berrian have turned up) and if he doesn’t go on Sunday, I’ll feel a lot less happy. As it is, he was on the field on Friday, albeit for walk-throughs, so I expect him to suit up. Shiancoe matches up nicely and might offer some value for 1st TD. Minnesota used him out wide last week and the Bears’ safeties are weak.

The other big factor of course, is Cutler and the protection he is (or isn’t) afforded by his O line. Martz won’t run the ball, and the line is so porous Cutler inevitably gets sacked or throws picks as the relentless pressure comes. Jared Allen and that dynamic pass rush have been slow to get going this season, but they sacked Anderson 6 times last week and should be carrying some momentum into this game.

I’ll take Petersen and Favre to get this done, putting up enough points while the Vikes’ D get to Cutler.

Pick: Minnesota -1 (2pts) 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Shiancoe (0.5pt) 16/1 Skybet
Pick: Anytime TD Percy Harvin (1pt) 17/10


St Louis @ San Francisco

I like St Louis in this game.

Despite lacking a receiver corps with any stand-out targets, Bradford has kept this team rolling with a strong arm and intelligent protection of possession. Of course, having a running back of the calibre of Steven Jackson helps – and if he gets it going tonight, the Rams should dominate completely – but I like the way St Louis are coming together on both sides of the ball.

Jackson gets a lot of touches, as you might expect with Bradford under centre, and needs to come off the bye week with a bit of vigour back in those old legs. However, the 49ers are strong against the run, and could limit the big, battering workhorse. This may put Bradford in long yardage situations, which would make me nervous if it kept occurring, so keep an eye on how that develops. Bradford needs to be able to get it to guys like Laurent and Gibson, who will be matching up on SF’s disappointing secondary containing a dinged up Clements, Shawntae Spencer and particularly rookie safety Taylor Mays and if he does, the Rams can get it done.

San Francisco rely on their premium runner too, but the St Louis run D is very strong, with Fred Robbins, Gary Gibson and James Laurinaitis really stuffing the run. Troy Smith will see a lot of different looks from the Rams’ D and will be under a good deal more pressure this week as St Louis can also defend downfield – this may offer some value with Vernon Davis operating as a safety valve for Smith underneath and getting looks in the redzone.

I’ll take the points.

Pick: St Louis +6 (3pts) 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Steven Jackson (1pt) 11/2
Pick: Anytime TD Vernon Davis (1pt) 13/10


One other bet for week 10 - Randy Moss always seems to score on his debut for a new team. Take him to score this week too at 13/10.

Matt Ryan is money at home (17-1; 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 7.8 yards per attempt and a 64.3 completion percentage) and is going to challenge a Ravens' defense that has struggled to limit the pass without a true shutdown corner.

The key here is Roddy White, who is arguably the most dangerous wide receiver in the NFL. He matches up all over the place as Atlanta like to use him in a variety of looks, and he would give any defender fits, let alone a secondary that has issues. The problem is; White is injured.

It's often difficult to know how limited by injury a player is in the NFL because frankly, just about everyone is injured all the time. Don't believe the egg-chasers; American football is the most violent and physically demanding oval ball game on the planet and it can often be a question of 'last man standing'.

The word is that White is good to go; he was listed as questionable yesterday (that means 50/50 - all clubs are required to provide the names of injured players who missed any practice work) but the knee injury was listed as 'minor' and I'm not picking anything up on Twitter (!), so let's assume he goes.

Another crucial element is the re-emergence of Michael Turner who has begun to find some form. Atlanta run an interesting gameplan up front, but will presumably seek to take the excellent Haloti Ngata out of the reckoning; if they do, expect Turner to make some significant headway and once Atlanta establish the run, this will begin to free up Ryan to go deep.

On the other side, I love Flacco. I have him in a couple of my fantasy teams and he has been on an upward curve all season. The Ravens keep it simple for him and, although there have been some protection issues, Atlanta have a mediocre pass rush, so I expect him to do well again tonight. The question is whether guys like Boldin, Mason and Houshmandzadeh can make hay against a Falcons' secondary that is giving up a lot of yards when there's no ground game around to help create the space. The Ravens also appear to have redzone issues - never good.

Ray Rice is the Ravens' run and at present he's more of a threat catching the ball out of the backfield than as a pure running back pounding the rock. Atlanta are tough against the run, so I don't expect him to be a threat on the ground - this reduces the sort of variety I like to see in a side matching up on a home team that has the chance to show the watching world they're for real this season.

This should be close, so if you must take an interest, make it a small one, but I see Atlanta taking it.

Pick: Atlanta -1 (2pts) 10/11
Pick: 1st TD Michael Turner (0.5pt) 6/1
Pick: Anytime TD Derrick Mason (1pt) 7/4

The Bengals have hammered me all season; they're hopelessly inconsistent and trying to guess which team will turn up on any given gameday is a nightmare, however, I'll give it a whirl.

I'm going to rely on the Bengals' weakness against the run, their poor front and Carson Palmer's deterioration in this one; this once useful passer has lost his arm and Cincy will find it difficult to establish an effective offense with a running game that is also struggling and facing a powerful and aggressive Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers are rated first against the run and, coupled with a shaky Bengals offensive line, Benson is unlikely to get it going. Wideout, TO has been putting up the numbers (as Ochocinco has slowly sunk out of sight) but as I say, Palmer no longer has the zip or accuracy to get the ball deep with any confidence.

On the other side of the ball for Pittsburgh, look for Mendenhall to have a solid game. Cincinnati are poor against the run and are badly banged up with Tank Johnson out and Frostee Rucker and Keith Rivers limited. This will relieve what little pressure Roethlisberger will feel (and that won't be much, the Bengals have no pass rush to speak of) as the Steelers will establish the run early and air it out as the game goes on.

One caveat; this is Monday Night Football, when the home team always seems to raise their game, so don't go crazy.

Nonetheless, I expect Pittsburgh to cover.

Pick: Pittsburgh -6 (3pts)
Pick: 1st TD Mendenhall (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace (1pt)