orioles

Green Bay look as though they're hitting stride nicely as the post-season looms and this game will decide whether they get a first round bye. Minnesota need to win to make the post-season, so this should be a cracker. Rodgers has finally got the offense ticking, but the Vikings' pass rush can bring pressure, so his offensive line needs to give him an opportunity to hit the talent Green Bay have in abundance downfield. Rodgers will have a miraculously rejuvenated Ryan Grant (in tandem with Alex Green) to fall back on in the run game and they'll be critical to keeping the Vikes off-balance. Adrian Peterson. A player who had his knee rebuilt and promptly tears off a season that not only threatens a 2000yd season, but also Eric Dickerson's out of sight record of 2105. Again, the Packers'...

[b]Houston Texans at Detroit Lions - Sky Sports 5.30pm[/b] Last week the Texans got it going through the air, but I expect them to revert to type today and key on Arian Foster who can take advantage of the Lions' defense's tendency to over-pursue. The Jags loaded up the box last week and limited Foster nicely, and the Detroit run defense has had its moments, but Schaub's ability to air it out and a defensive inconsistency against the run means that Houston should be able to move the chains. The Detroit inconsistency on D is reflected on the offense; Stafford has had a patchy season and was poor last week. That spread to the rest of the offense and culminated with Titus Young having a hissy fit on the sidelines which sees him benched today. The Texans were lit up by Chad Henne last...

The Giants are strong on the road ATS (10-3-1 since 2011) and I'll take them to cover tonight. Manning went 26 of 40 for 337, but looked slightly out of sync last week and Coughlin needs to get Bradshaw rolling, particularly catching out of the backfield now that the Cowboys have lost Sean Lee. Cruz is a beast and can prosper in this matchup where he's likely to draw Scandrick operating in the slot; look for the usual big play attempt with Cruz on the end. Unfortunately for Dallas, they're badly depleted in the run game, because Washington ran all over the Giants last week: Phil Costa's absence won't help and the net result is that the Cowboys will need to rely on Romo's arm and he has struggled to produce consistently this season - largely because of continuing protection problems....

The Patriots are still misfiring a little on offense, but judging by the Rams' pass rush last week Tom Brady will have time to look downfield - that's a dangerous luxury to afford what is still a capable side like New England. Aaron Hernandez is out, so they'll need Brandon Lloyd to find some form, but the Pats have enough weapons (and decent balance on the ground) to put up points. The Rams are no mugs and, were it not for their problems in the redzone, they might be in a very different place in the standings going into this game. Their problems up front continue however, and even with the already poor Pats' secondary banged up, there's no guarantee St Louis will have enough to keep this within a TD. [b] Pick: New England Patriots -7 @ 1.95 [i] Pick: 1st TD Wes Welker @ 9 Pick:...

[u][b]New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills[/b][/u] A young, promising home defense is probably over-matched here with Belichick and Brady coming to town. While the Pats struggled for defensive control against the Ravens, the fact that Jackson and C.J.Spiller are banged up at best (and one or both may not go at all) means that Buffalo will be shifted off their preferred gameplan. Give the points. [b]Pick: New England Patriots -3.5 @ 1.91 [i]Pick: 1st TD Ron Gronkowski @ 7.0 Pick: Anytime TD Steve Johnson @ 2.1[/i][/b] [b][u]New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers[/u][/b] The Saints may have the worst defense in the league, so a visit to a smarting Green Bay is probably the last thing the beleaguered New Orleans organisation needs. On offense they look lost, with Brees...

Double digit spreads are practically always an automatic play on the dog, especially on national television, but I can't roll with the Browns tonight. Cleveland don't have a pass rush likely to bother Flacco much and with Joe Haden absent, the Browns are soft against the pass, because Buster Skrine and Dimitri Patterson aren't getting it done. Baltimore will attack that weak secondary with three wide sets (Torrey Smith's speed, even as #3 receiver, can exploit the inevitable mismatches) and shouldn't have any problem moving the ball. Ray Rice may run amok against a run defense that ranks 22nd, as long as Cam Cameron gives him the rock. On offense the Browns are going to struggle with Brandon Weeden throwing the ball; he's liable to be inaccurate and his receivers aren't the most talented...

I'm looking forward to this game; Houston rely on a low-risk, rush-heavy offense, but Denver have been tough on the run (119 rushing yards at a 2.8 YPC) and that means Schaub will have to look for Andre Johnson more downfield, but beyond Johnson, the pickings are slim. Add in the first real test for Houston's offensive front (Schaub is notoriously skittish in the pocket) and a lot of people's fancy to go all the way will be severely tested at Mile High - always a difficult place to go. Denver, or rather Peyton Manning, started dreadfully last week, and the offense still looks like it needs fine tuning. That's not good news against a Texans' defense that is well organised and tough. If Peyton struggled against the Hawks, Houston may stymie him. I'll give the points. [b][i] Pick: ...

It might be a little early to be looking at Tebow, but Sanchez had better get his chit together. After starting at a gallop, the offense disappeared last week and Sanchez was horrible, only managing to pad his stats in garbage time. The books aren't too sure here; the line started out as far as Jets -5, closed up to -1 and has drifted back to -2, but really, if the Jets have any ambition, they should put the Fins away today. Sanchez is likely to need to throw because Miami have closed down the run nicely and Shonn Greene looks pedestrian. Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill should get some looks today and I fancy one of them to have a big game, particularly with Keller out. Outside of Cameron Wake, there isn't a really threatening pass rush from Miami, so last week's protection issues...

I hate capping the Giants, particularly in the first month of the season. Last week was a good example; they started like a junior flag football team and ended like unstoppable world champions. Cons? Short week, a tough Carolina on the road, Bradshaw and Nicks out, problems at tackle that may expose their QB and a secondary that wasn't too hot to start with, has missing bodies. Pros? Cruz can dominate, Andre Brown may be up to the job against a poor home run D and Manning broke all sorts of records after starting badly last week. Carolina need to attack that Giants' secondary, but Cam Newton and the ground game did some damage last week, so it'll be a significant chance of approach. They can still pound the rock as New York aren't a brick wall up front (although Keith Rivers is back...