orioles

Double digit spreads are practically always an automatic play on the dog, especially on national television, but I can't roll with the Browns tonight.

Cleveland don't have a pass rush likely to bother Flacco much and with Joe Haden absent, the Browns are soft against the pass, because Buster Skrine and Dimitri Patterson aren't getting it done. Baltimore will attack that weak secondary with three wide sets (Torrey Smith's speed, even as #3 receiver, can exploit the inevitable mismatches) and shouldn't have any problem moving the ball. Ray Rice may run amok against a run defense that ranks 22nd, as long as Cam Cameron gives him the rock.

On offense the Browns are going to struggle with Brandon Weeden throwing the ball; he's liable to be inaccurate and his receivers aren't the most talented bunch, even if they manage to catch the ball (Greg Little has been killing me in fantasy). On the ground, the excellent Trent Richardson will have to run against a Ravens' front that ranks 5th; he'll be more effective catching out of the backfield, but it'll be a tough game for him either way.

I'll reluctantly give the points in what may be a blowout.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -11.5 @ 1.95

Pick: Cleveland Trios Sell @ 340 (Sporting Index)
Pick: 1st TD Torrey Smith @ 7.5
Pick: Anytime TD Jacoby Jones @ 2.8