orioles

Bucs @ Redskins

I like the Bucs here. My Redskins have the look of a team that have given up, and while the Buccaneers managed to blow a 10 point lead last week, they look the team most likely.

The Redskins malaise is particularly evident on defense and LeGarrette Blount should have a big game.  He is a massive unit and can wear down a Washington defense that sits last in yards per carry given up. Interestingly, Raheem Morris has expressed increasing frustration at the big boy's inability to convert short yardage and at the goal-line, and the 3/1 on offer at Paddy Power for Earnest Graham to score may offer some sneaky value as he may get those carries in the redzone. The Washington secondary has struggled all season and is banged up and Josh Freeman, even with limited options downfield, is developing into an efficient and talented QB.

Losing Aqib Talib is a blow for the Bucs, so I expect them to come after McNabb to limit the aerial attack and they should get to him. The 'skins O line is playing poorly, allowing 13 sacks in the last four weeks and Tampa have 12 sacks over the same period. That is a worrying combination of stats for McNabb. Washington is also turning over the ball much too much. Their running game is a shambles, so I don't expect the Bucs to be too troubled on the ground, which is a bust for Washington as that probably represents their best chance.

I'll give the point.

Pick: Tampa Bay -1 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Mike Williams 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Earnest Graham 3/1 (1pt)
Pick: Buy Tampa Bay Sacks @ 2.4 (1pt/tick)