First of all, an apology. I had a full mail bag this morning complaining I hadn't covered the New England game. Well, I did put the pick on my forum post, but when it came time to write it up, I had a poorly little girl who needed her daddy and making you lot rich
had to be set aside (the Jets pick notwithstanding!)
Webb. Seriously? He's listed as a wide receiver in my 'Big Book of the NFL 2010'! I'll confess I had to read up a bit about the mighty Joe Webb, but it looks like he has a strong arm and some talent (presumably he can run too) but, as Green Bay proved last night, when the hammer comes down, inexperienced QBs tend to blow it.
Usually, I like games where the 2nd (or 3rd) string QB is starting, because there's always an overreaction and the spread is way too big, meaning the dog is a strong bet (again, Green Bay were a good example last night). The dog is almost always fired up to do its best for the plucky young lad/veteran team player. I guess the Redskins were another example last night - although I broke my rule and opposed them.
HOWEVER, I like the Bears here because there must come a point at which the puppy is so far behind, it can't catch up.
Presumably the Vikes will try to get 'All Day' and Toby Gerhart going tonight, but with a limited threat behind centre, Chicago will stack the box and give them no room for manoeuvre between the tackles. The Bears' front and pass rush will overwhelm a weak Minnesota O line and look for Julius Peppers to ramp it up off the edge as the game goes on.
On the other side of the ball, Mike Martz must realise that the run is the way to go, after the Giants gashed the Vikes on the ground last week, but nothing is for sure where Martz is concerned and the temptation to attack the weak CBs downfield may be too much, even in the Golden Gophers' outdoor stadium on a freezing night.
The rule tempers the bet, but I'll give the points.
**UPDATE**
Favre is reported to be thinking of playing and Minnesota have upgraded him on the injury report to 'questionable'. In these weather conditions, with the field like rock, I'd actually make the Bears a stronger bet, as they're bound to knock an immobile and fragile Favre out of the game (after he's thrown his customary late season pick six and turned the ball over twice) effectively lobbing Webb to the wolves, or bears - it's much tougher if the rookie doesn't start and has to come in mid-game. The line has moved and is a stronger bet at -7.
Pick: Chicago -7.5 (2*) -7 (3*)
Pick: Anytime TD Bears Defense 4/1 (1pt)
Pick: Chicago Sacks Buy @ 2.7 (1pt/tick)