orioles

49ers @ Chargers

The bolts are getting well - and they ranked 2nd in offense as it is! It is just possible the juggernaut is gassed up and ready to roll, but these teams are in a precarious post-season position and, while neither particularly deserve a run at it all, it's all on the line tonight. however, the line worries me; it has drifted out to double digits and while the chargers will take this, I never like to lay double digits.

With Vincent Jackson fit downfield, Rivers' penchant for the big play is bound to mean some deep shots early and jump balls in the redzone, and given the weakness in the SF secondary with guys like Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer, I take Jackson to score, as he'll get a lot of looks with Floyd and Gates likely out.

The 49ers are tough against the run, which suggests the Chargers will need to air it out, but nonetheless they'll use Tolbert, Matthews and Sproles to mix it up on O. San Francisco has some injury problems in the linebacker corps and if San Diego gets ahead, those touches in the backfield will go up and Tolbert may well see some goal line carries.

On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith will go to Vernon Davis, his favourite target, with San Diego's safeties struggling a little in coverage. With Joe Staley out and Mike Iupati nicked up though, Smith may find his protection creaking. Although the Chargers lack the marquee pass rush, Ron Rivera has the defensive unit ticking and Smith reacts badly to pressure. Westbrook has looked nice catching out of the backfield of late, but the 49ers will find it difficult to establish the run and, as the options become limited, this may provoke errors as Smith tries to force the ball in against guys like Quentin Jammer.

By the numbers, San Diego should dominate (2nd in offence, 1st in total defense, 1st against the pass, 4th against the run, and 3rd in sacks) and teams travelling on a short week traditionally struggle, but I return to laying double digits. I just don't like it. There is a little 9.5 available and a small interest at that is not too bad.

Pick: SD -9.5 (2*)

Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson 11/8 (2pts)
Pick: Spread - San Diego Performance/San Francisco Performance Buy @ 47 (0.5pt/tick)