orioles

Jets @ Steelers

Two offenses that are staggering towards the regular season finishing line. The Jets' line is giving up sacks as Sanchez looks increasingly skittish. Sacked 6 times last week against the Dolphins, the Jets are really missing Damien Woody. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Jonathan Scott and Flozell Adams and the rest of the O line seemingly offer Big Ben as much protection as a wet tissue.

I was going to take the Jets, but the -6/6.5 on offer earlier in the week has disappeared by gametime and at -4 I'm not as happy, so I'm staying away ATS.

Instead I'm going back to my old favourite: total sacks in the game. Both teams are being sustained by their defenses, and both sides are going to try and outslug the other on that side of the ball. This means that not only will the Steelers blitz a QB with little or no confidence (or protection) all day, but the Jets should do exactly the same (although they have been oddly gun-shy this year) against a statuesque Roethlisberger who is badly nicked up behind an equally porous line.

It should be a bloodbath.

Pick: Total Match Sacks Buy @ 5.3 (1pt/tick)