orioles

An intriguing pick. Pittsburgh have a number of crucial injuries on both sides of the ball and Roethlisberger is going to have little time and even less protection tonight against a quick, aggressive Bengals' pass rush that leads the league in sacks, especially as he'll have no run game to help. Cincinnati have plenty of defensive talent, but don't rank as highly as I'd expected when I checked the numbers (17th/21st vs. pass/run) however their real problem is under centre. Andy Dalton is difficult to trust, which is a shame because in A J Green he has one of the most exciting wideouts in the game. Again, the run game is poor. This comes down to the triggermen and in Big Ben we trust. Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1.95 Pick: 1st TD Heath Miller @ 11 Pick: Anytime TD Jermaine...

[b]NY Giants (6-6) at Dallas (7-5)[/b] Channel 4, 1.15am Ouch. Robbed in the first game, but humiliated in the second - that'll teach me to try and be smarter than Mr Rodgers! I've run out of superlatives for an offense like that. This one? Well, I don't like the error-prone Cowboys (witness last week's fiasco) who are atop the division seemingly by default. While Romo is solid, his offensive line is not, and Jason Pierre-Paul and his buddies should be able to make the Dallas triggerman sufficiently uncomfortable to provoke mistakes. That said, New York are really suffering with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and the loss last week of Safety Kenny Phillips makes them even weaker deep. DeMarco Murray must get going for Dallas to help Romo out. TEs have caused New York...

[b]Pittsburgh (7-3) at Kansas City (4-6)[/b] The late night pick! Kansas are over-matched in every department here and Pittsburgh should beat the hell out of the anaemic Chiefs. Tyler Palko won't get much joy against this defense and the Steelers have too many options on offense. Give the points. [i]Pick: Steelers -10.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 Pick: 1st TD Rashard Mendenhall @ 5.5; 450; 9/2 Pick: Anytime TD Antonio Brown @ 2.3; 130;13/10[/i]

[b]Philadelphia (3-6) at NY Giants (6-3)[/b] Ch4, Monday November 21st, 1.15am Vick is out, and the Eagles are nearly done. Eli Manning is beginning to look like a top QB and the Giants look like they may contend and putting away a divisional rival at home will improve that case no end. Philadelphia specialise in the 4th quarter collapse, whereas Manning has become a final quarter hero. So I’m taking the Eagles. Vick has driven me bananas all year, and I’m not going to pretend that Young is an upgrade, but I have a feeling his team will rally to the flag in what is essentially their season deciding game. The Giants have 30 sacks on the season, but Young is mobile and if he can mix it up with LeSean McCoy, who can exploit New York’s 20th ranked run D, he has some dangerous...

[i]*Edit: Sorry about the confusing price on Pittsburgh! I'd flip-flopped on the pick and left in the wrong line/price. The Pick was, of course, Pittsburgh -2.5. I'd also like to thank Joe Flacco for ramming my criticism of him down my throat in an astonishing finish[/i] [:silly:] --------------------------------------------------------------- [b]Baltimore (5-2) at Pittsburgh (6-2)[/b] Ch4, Monday November 7th, 1am This should be the sort of throwback, brutal football I love: but it’s a very difficult pick. The Ravens are flat out the best defensive team in football; 2nd in points given up, 1st in total yards, 3rd in pass yards and 3rd in rushing yards. The problem is Flacco, who is notoriously unpredictable and he’s facing a defense that is ranked respectively; 3rd,...

[b]Dallas (3-3) at Philadelphia (2-4)[/b] Channel 4, Monday October 31st, 12.30am Could there be life in Philly? Well, maybe, but tonight may not be the night. The really interesting matchup here is the Eagles’ O line, up against the ever-improving Cowboys’ pass rush. Dallas have come on leaps and bounds on the defensive side and Ryan has really got them rolling – which means Vick must keep upright and show some of that new composure he’s supposed to have found, because if the Cowboys have a weakness, it’s vertically. If Vick can hit DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin deep, the Eagles have got a chance. The other way of blunting the pass rush is to use LeSean McCoy catching out of the backfield; Philadelphia won’t get much joy on the ground against a defense that ranks...

[b]Indianapolis (0-6) at New Orleans (4-2)[/b] Ch4, Monday October 24th, 1.30am Another blow-out ATS bear trap. To beat the spread, you need a team that’ll beat its brains in to stay two TDs ahead, when they’re in control – the surest way to lose money. Still, how can the lost boys of Indianapolis possibly stay with the Saints? The consensus seems to be attacking them on the ground, but the Saints have been solid against the run recently, and it’s not as if the Colts’ O line is creating great lanes. As it is, although Addai looks as though he may suit up, he’s carrying a limiting injury. Painter has been ok, and I don’t mean that as a put down, he’s a distance ahead of Kerry Collins, but he’ll need to deal with a Saints’ defense that, although it doesn’t...

[b]Minnesota (1-4) at Chicago (2-3)[/b] Ch4, Monday October 17th, 1.20am I wouldn’t bet this game for all the foot longs in Chicago. (Actually, all three games tonight have been difficult ... honest!) Two horribly misfiring offenses; save for two outstanding backs. Cutler is just getting battered behind that O line (and the Vikings have a terrific pass rush) and McNabb couldn’t play QB in a peewee flag football league. This will effectively be Forte vs Peterson, and given that the Vikes stuff the run and the Bears couldn’t stuff a chicken; it’s the Vikes, I suppose. I tell you what – take the points, go to bed with a mug of cocoa, and watch the baseball. [i]Pick: Vikings +2.5 @ 1.91; -110; 10/11 Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 5.00; 400; 4/1[/i]

Some thoughts ... The received wisdom is that you don’t bet on the first two weeks of the season, and after last week’s results, the usual panic and over-hyped cobblers is being talked. It would be interesting to see how you’d fare if you took the points on offer on every game, because some lines look badly out of whack. Now THAT'S an acca! [:laugh:] [b]Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings[/b] An awkward game, and not one I would normally get involved in. Neither of these teams looks comfortable moving the ball, making the outcome difficult to gauge. For Tampa Bay, LeGarrette Blount misfired last week and Freeman looks short of confidence going vertical, preferring short, quick passes. For Minnesota, well, it’s AP versus the Bucs. McNabb is horrible and ...