The received wisdom is that you don’t bet on the first two weeks of the season, and after last week’s results, the usual panic and over-hyped cobblers is being talked. It would be interesting to see how you’d fare if you took the points on offer on every game, because some lines look badly out of whack.
Now THAT'S an acca!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
An awkward game, and not one I would normally get involved in.
Neither of these teams looks comfortable moving the ball, making the outcome difficult to gauge. For Tampa Bay, LeGarrette Blount misfired last week and Freeman looks short of confidence going vertical, preferring short, quick passes. For Minnesota, well, it’s AP versus the Bucs.
McNabb is horrible and the OL creaks badly (Tampa’s improving pass rush isn’t going to make things any easier) but Peterson is the most talented running back in the game and he gives the Vikings a chance whenever he suits up. He’ll need to have a big game here, because Percy Harvin is more or less it downfield and even then you’re asking McNabb to get him the ball against a couple of talented young corners.
The Bucs’ running game will profit from the continued absence of Kevin Williams, but I can’t see them tearing it up on the ground.
Pick: Tampa Bay @ 2.2
Pick: Under 41.5 @ 1.91
Pick: 1st TD Adrian Peterson @ 5.00
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
Brady. Yikes.
Even behind a ropey OL, tonsorially terrific Tom is money, and the Chargers, making the famous time zone hop to take on the Pats in Foxboro, will have a tough time keeping Brady quiet. He struggled against them last year, but that may be hoping against hope, because in truth he should make hay again tonight against safeties who will struggle to contain his new best friends, Gronkowski and Hernandez. Throw in the Welker wildcard, and the Chargers’ D will have a long day.
Not that the New England defense is in for an armchair ride; Rivers is a terrific QB with a multitude of weapons at his disposal and the Pats’ D struggled to contain the Fins deep last week, so they’ve got their work cut out with Jackson, Floyd and Gates.
Antonio Gates will get the looks in the redzone, even close in, as Haynesworth and Wilfork are big units to get past on the ground, making Mathews and Tolbert poor value in the TD market .
The New England run game may have more joy, and ‘the law firm’, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, should get a chance on the goal line.
I like New England to cover.
Pick: Patriots -6.5 @ 1.91 (PP)
Pick: 1st TD BJGE @ 8.00
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
Vick to Atlanta. Woof.
2006 seems a long time ago and doubtless the charmer will be keen to show the Georgia Dome that he’s turned it around in the city of brotherly love.
However, this may be one of those games where there’s been an overreaction to Week 1; the Eagles (particularly the OL) gelled better than most people thought they would and the Falcons were flat out horrible.
I’m still not buying the Eagles’ OL and as I mentioned in my season preview, I always feel like Vick is one scramble and big hit away from disaster. This is an offense that ticks with big plays and if John Abraham and Ray Edwards can get rolling, Vick may struggle – the Rams put pressure on him last week and the Falcons will have worked hard on getting to the QB. If they don’t though – watch out! Incidentally, Mike always likes a big room, so he’s worth a small interest to score first.
Ryan will sling it about as usual, but it would be nice to see Turner get the rock more in this one; he can put up some nice numbers against a less than stellar run D that Steven Jackson looked like shredding before he got injured. If Atlanta establishes the run, Ryan can look for some very talented receivers downfield. There’ll be heavy coverage for Roddy White and Julio Jones, and I have a sneaking suspicion Tony Gonzalez might turn back the clock as Ryan uses him underneath, matched up on a poor Eagles’ LB unit.
Pick: Falcons +3 @ 1.95 (Lad)
Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick @ 9.00
Pick: Anytime TD Tony Gonzalez @ 3.00