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In the 15.10 at Goodwood I'm a little disappointed that the favourite Goodwood Atlantis has been taken out because I'd come up with a fair few reasons to take him on & I felt that he was creating huge amounts of value elsewhere in the field. As it is I still think that we have a very valid trading option in the form of the David Simcock trained Ghost Protocal.

The last 2 times out he too has been competing in handicaps above todays grade and whilst he’s come up short both times he still traded as we would require both times. He has a smooth traveling style where he sits off the leaders and is able to cruise up on the bridle to deliver his chance about 2f from home. He has a small amount of form on soft ground (more than the favourite does at least!) which suggests he may take to it well.

Ghost Protocal is available to back now for 2 points at 8.0 widely with the books and on here if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1.

Best of luck.

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We backed Alkadi at the beginning of this month for a trade, see here: http://community.betfair.com/stoozbet/blog/2012/09/05/alkadi-to-get-us-an-all-weather-trade

That day she did the business for us trading down to 1.31 in running & finishing 2nd. Today Alkadi runs again in the 16.40 at Beverley & I've been considering whether today is right to put her up again to trade on & it's not a clear cut yes but on the balance of probabilities it's just about a yes. I'll outline the factors going into making the decision.

Why yes?

She's bang in form being available to trade in all 5 of her last 5 starts including last time out in a class above this one (we skipped that race due to the step up in class). I've said before that Jo Fanning is the key to this horse, never one to shy away from attempting to make all those positive tactics are what have enabled her to trade for us in the past & it's highly likely they will be used again. I was disappointed to see the books price Alkadi up at 3/1 this morning however now even after a Non Runner 7/2 is widely available which is a much nicer price to try & trade from.

Why no?

The main question mark is over the ground. Officially described as Good it's been eased from Good to Firm over night. BBC weather is showing as rain expected at 2pm so it's likely to have 2 hours more rainfall before this race starts. Her best performances have all come on good to firm ground so as she's unproven on a softer surface this brings in an element of doubt. This is probably the reason for her easing in price out to 9/2.

On the balance of things she's usually the last horse to come off the bridle & her strong form has swayed me to put her up for a trade. The drift may continue so I'd be using your friendly Best Odds Bookmaker to protect against any further drift.

Back Alkadi now for 2 points at 7/2 (4.5). If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.3 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 2.9.

Best of luck.


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In the 16.10 at Beverley we have a 6 year old gelding  called Desert Romance who is on a long loosing run stretching all the way back to April 2011. In that time he’s been at the racecourse 19 times without getting his head in front and has therefore slipped in the weights so he’s now 8 lbs below his last winning mark.

The interesting thing about Desert Romance’s recent form is that he’s been running reasonably well in defeat being available to trade in 7 of his last 8 races. Shadowtime is another runner in this race that is very interesting, last time out Shadowtime & Desert Romance ran in the same race at Pontefract & that time Shadowtime came out on top and I felt that there could be a great deal more to come. However today Desert Romance arrives a hefty 9 lbs better off.

Tactics used on Desert Romance have varied from being held up to also making the running, he’s still traded regardless.  Last time out over 1m he tried to make all before not quite getting home, for this reason I feel that dropping him back to 7f could suit and off a low weight he can get away in front and get the others off the bridle between 2 & 1 furlongs from home.

Desert Romance can be backed now for 2 points at 6.5 with the books (Ladbrokes & Betvictor) and has been pushed out to beyond 7.0 on here. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, if you’re looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1.

As usual the lay off prices have been put for the lower back prices at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish. Backing with best odds guaranteed bookmakers can help to partially protect against any drift.

Best of luck.

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For those wanting to keep track of the stats on this blog. For this month so far we have had 14 successful trades from 16 selections, a strike rate of 87.5%. Last week we went 100% with all 5 selections trading for a full 1 point profit.

So moving onto today where an interesting 2 year old fillie runs in the 15.00 at Leicester by the name of Pira Palace. It's not that often that we look at the nursery handicaps as the form lines usually haven't developed but I think we've seen enough from this Sir Michael Stout trained runner to show that she's got some talent at this grade.

She's run twice already in similar races, the 1st of these she pulled hard throughout the early part before getting squeezed in the middle of the race and being shuffled to the back of the pack & forced to check her run. This would normally be enough to end the chances of such an inexperienced horse over a sprint distance but she managed to get herself back up to the leaders when in space & fight out the finish to come 2nd & trade down to 1.07 in the process.

Last time out at Lingfield (remember the golden highway for horses drawn high) she came from stall 4 of 12 & jumped out & crossed in front of nearly the whole field to grab the stands rail from her rivals, no mean feat! She pulled the field along & only tired in the final furlong but not before she had traded down to 2.02 in running. That race was over 7f and today she steps back to 6f which should be in her favor.

The markets are still yet to firm up but Pira Palace can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0* at the books (skybet & sportingbet). If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5.

*A drift is entirely possible, I'd suggest achieving at least 7.0, try to back with a BOG bookmaker to partially protect against any drift.

Best of luck.


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Lingfield has one of those cliché, vomit inducing, racing phrases banded about whenever you hear a pundit talk about the turf course. That phrase is the “golden highway” up the stands rail which strongly favours horses drawn high.

Whilst I hate the phrase there is nothing wrong with a draw bias for us punters to acknowledge & take advantage of. Lingfield also has a pace bias towards front runners & in the 15.50 today we have a horse both drawn highest & also one who likes to be up with the pace.

That horse is the 3 year old gelding Welease Bwian. He’s been running consistently with credit in this grade and has been available to trade in 5 of his last 6 outings. Because he hasn’t been winning he’s slipped in the weights and with the plum draw I think that things can go well enough for us to at least get a trade.

Welease Bwian can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 with Betvictor. If you’re looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point all round profit.

Just so everyone knows I’m off to a wedding today so with hangover etc planned I’m unlikely to have another selection before Sunday or Monday. I won’t be watching the race so if anyone else can post up the trading results in the comments I’d be grateful.

Best of Luck

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My Sharona was put up earlier this month on this blog as a trading opportunity of a well-handicapped horse following a cheeky win on the bridle. It seems that I wasn’t the only one to notice as there was a modest gamble on My Sharona which gave us a very nice pre race trade as she went off at a BSP of 3.9.

I always advocate taking your money off the table pre race if possible as the money is risk free & I’m not a fan of un-needed stress! This race proved why as My Sharona took an uncharacteristic stumble out of the stalls which nearly unseated the jockey. She still went on to run well but giving the field 4 lengths at the start meant she didn’t go any lower than her BSP.

This basically means that you can draw a line through that performance. Today My Sharona is turned out in an easier race, the 16.00 at Yarmouth and is currently available to back at 6.0 with both Paddy Power & Betvictor & 6.2 on Betfair. So to be clear, this horse was judged by the market to go off at 3.9 in a better race than this last time out. She took an uncharacteristic slip coming out of the stalls meaning that the last performance was meaningless. All other things are equal & yet she’s available at 6.0 right now, some market readjustment is required!

My Sharona likes to sit just behind the leaders and cruise up to challenge in a smooth traveling style around 1f from home. If we don’t get the pre race trade which would be nice then hopefully it shouldn’t be too much trouble for us to go in play.

Back My Sharona now for  2 points at 6.0 at the books & 6.2 on here, if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.5 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.9.

Best of Luck

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Consistency is what we look for in a trading horse and there are few that have made a more reliable or consistent start to their equine careers than the 3 year old colt Kaafel who runs today in the 17.35 at Sandown. He's been available to trade in all 8 of his visits to the track to date including in an identical race over course & distance last time out.

That day he was able to get near to the lead from Stall 15 (a low draw is generally preferred at Sandown) and today he goes from stall 7 making it that bit easier to be up with the pace near the rail. His official rating was raised 3 lbs for his good run last time out but that day he went from near the top of the weights & today he actually runs with 1 lb less on his back.

With 2 time champion jockey Paul Hannagan on board we should hope to see Kaafel sent to the front again & stay there long enough to give us our trade.

Kaafel can be backed now for 2 points at 11.0 on here and 10.0 at the books, if you'r looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 7.2 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 6.4.

As usual the lay off prices mentioned are for the lower back prices at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish. If you achieve a higher back price then revise your lay off price upwards to make the trade easier.

Best of luck

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Apologies for the pair of terrible headlines for todays posts!

Sometimes you look at the shape of a race & feel that you can get right inside how it is likely to be run & I get this feeling about the 17.00 at Yarmouth. Sometimes it can go very wrong & you look stupid but here goes...

We have a very strong favourite in the shape of Willie Wag Tail currently at 1.90. This is because he's what you would call an "eyecatcher" and has been unlucky in running in his last 2 races, coming from a long way back he was checked at a crucial stage. Now whilst this is crucial information it was clear to see & everyone had it marked down so this is reflected in a very short price. Now I don't know about you but I'm not a fan of backing "unlucky" horses, I like mine to be the ones that always seem to get the split when needed, what is is they say about good players making their own luck?

The reason I think Willie Wag Tail ran on so strongly & eye-catchingly last time out was due to a very strong pace for him to run at, that race was a 19 runner handicap at York thus ensuring a breakneck gallop which was always bound to set things up for a closer. Todays race only has 6 runners thus making it much more likely to be a tactical affair. This makes the 1.91 an easy enough offer to pass up.

The 2nd in the betting is Maria's Choice who is another hold up horse so for the same reason can be passed over.

There are 2 horses to be interested in for trading purposes, these are Assizes & Expert Fighter. Both are very valid trading options but Assizes is stepping up in class from his normal level & has a new jockey on board which makes me lean towards Expert Fighter.

Last time out both Expert Fighter & Willie Wag Tail were in the same race, Expert Fighter was at the front of things helping to set the high tempo gallop and still cruised to the front on the bridle around 2f from home under Frankie Dettori, he then bottomed out & dropped well away but had traded from a BSP of 19.0 down to 2.1. There are few better judges of pace than L Dettori & today I think that we can see Expert Fighter sent to the front with the minimum of competition, Frankie should be able to get a breather into his mount through the middle part of the race, before kicking again from the front to steal a march towards the finish line.

If the race is run to suit then Expert Fighter looks a big price right now to win but we just need a few things to go as planned for his price to drop at least enough to give us a trade.

There is currently a gap between Betfair & the bookies but I've been building a stake for Expert Fighter at 11.0. That is about the sort of price you would want to achieve for 2 points, if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.2 or if you're shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.2 to give you a 1 point profit all green screen.

Best of luck

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Folkestone is a track with a pace bias towards front runners & draw bias towards the high numbers. In the 15.50 we have both of these combined in the Mark Johnston runner Centrifugal. The 3 year old has been available to trade in each of his last 5 starts including 2 class 4 handicaps. He was dropped to maiden races for his last 2 starts finishing a close 2nd & winning comfortably on his latest start. I think we're seeing some progression now from him & back in a class 4 handicap we can see him go well from the front in a small field.

His action looks like his loves to hit the ground hard so the good to firm conditions today should be ideal. I also think that 7 furlongs is his optimum trip which he ran over (and won) for the 1st time last time out. Today I think that all the stars are aligned for Centrifugal to run a big race which should be enough to give us our trade.

Now here comes the warning! As any regular readers will be familiar with I bang on about taking the best back price possible. The mood in the markets looks clearly to me like the layers want to take Centrifugal on, he's currently been matched at 5.0 on betfair & the bookies are a best price 4/1 too. I will not be jumping in myself yet as a drift closer to the off is expected. I will be trying to get on at 6.0 or above. Below are the lay off prices if you can get backed at 6.0 but obviously adjust your own lay off prices to reflect the back price you achieve.

If you back Centrifugal for 2 points at 6.0 on betfair, if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.5 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.9.

Best of luck

The 14.25 at Doncaster is a small field but high quality group 2 race for 2 year olds and when looking for a trade in a race like this it usually pays to side with the more experienced runners as they are more likely to get their act together and focus on the job in hand earlier in the race. The most consistent & professional in this field is the Godolphin runner Tha’ir who has won of his 6 starts & traded down to 1.43 & 1.33 in his 2 latest outings both in group company. He was just nosed out in a blanket finish 2 weeks ago at Sandown & in this small field I’m hoping that Frankie Dettori can deliver him with every chance around a furlong from home which should see the price contract at least enough to give us a trade.

Tha’ir can be backed now for 2 points at 8.0 with the books & on here, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9 or if you’re shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point all green screen.

Best of luck

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