Forums
55 people are following this blog
Stoozbet's Trading Blog
The 15.40 at Epsom is an interesting race where the jumps jockeys race flat horses over the Derby course at Epsom & I'm interested in the mount of Tom Scudamore, the 4 year old gelding Spartan Spirit. He's been running well in handicaps around this grade and had traded in 5 of his last 6 races. He usually travels around mid-field but has been making his way onto the heels of the leaders with the minimum of fuss about 2f from home which has enabled him to trade to 2.1, 1.32 & 1.25 in his last 3 races.

Another reason to back him is because he's simply at too big a price. I've been backing him at 19's & 20's this morning & the price has contracted slightly. We're probably looking at a SP of around the 15.0 mark.

Spartan Spirit is available to back for 2 points now at 13.0* widely at the books & at 14.0 on here. If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 9.4 or if you're shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 8.2.

As usual I've put the lay off prices for the lower back prices at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish. I would strongly suggest that you can easily achieve in excess of 15.0 before the off on betfair so think twice before jumping in. If you get a better price then revise your lay off prices upwards to make the trade easier.

Best of luck.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 371 views ]

Graham Lee At Newcastle

10 Sep 12 14:32
Few could have predicted how well Graham Lee would adapt to the switch in codes from jumps racing to the flat but his decision has been vindicated as he smashed his way through 50 winners and the fan club for him is growing. His national hunt pedigree makes him a very good judge of pace, something which gives him an advantage at the longer distance races such as the 2m handicap in the 15.00 at Newcastle.

In this race he partners the 6 year old gelding Descaro who has recently been competing in races a class above todays race and likes to be towards the front of things with a smooth traveling style, albeit a little one paced. Today I'm hoping that the combination of a drop in class, an ex national hunt jockey & good to firm ground can all combine to give us a nice trade.

Descaro can be backed now for 2 points at 11.0 with Betvictor and 10.5 on here. If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0.

Best of luck
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 376 views ]

A Front Runner At Bath

10 Sep 12 10:48
Bath is a track where hold up horses are favored with the up hill finish however the 16.50 today is a race with only one runner who you could say with confidence is likely to make the running. That runner is the 5 year old gelding Annelko who ran last week in the same grade over 1m5f and he had the field all off the bridle 3 furlongs from home, he was swallowed up in the final furlong but showed enough to suggest that he may not be far off a winning mark.

Last weeks race was in soft ground but there has been no rain at Bath all week so it’s now officially firm. Annelko’s best form has been on firm or good to firm ground, no doubt due to his front running style.

In a race where there is likely to be no pace on it may be possible for Martin Lane to control things from the front and get away from the field turning for home. He knows that his horse more than gets the distance which today is 1m3f so if Annelko is at the front & still on the bridle 3f from home then we can expect the price to drop accordingly. He may get home or he may not but we’re hoping that the shape of this race can give us a profit regardless of the outcome.

Annelko can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0* with the books & on here. If you’re looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point all round profit.

Best of luck

*If I had to guess a fair SP for Annelko I'd say around 5.5 so do try & get the best price possible & revise your lay off prices upwards to make the trade easier for yourself.

PS whenever I blog on Betfair I send out a tweet so if you want to get alerted 1st then just follow on twitter. https://twitter.com/stoozbet
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 574 views ]
The 19.50 at Kempton is a nursery handicap and contains an interesting runner, the Mark Johnston trained Wellingrove. He's justifiably at the head of the market on his 2 previous performances where he traded to 1.1 & 1.32 in running, I think he's the one in this race with the most tallent and should be competing in handicaps at a grade or 2 above this in time. He has run a little green which is why he didn't get his head in front before but I think that he's got all the ability & should improve for each run he has.

A useful claimer gets the ride today in Raul Da Silva and he's well drawn in stall 2 to get a good passage around the inside rail to either deliver a challenge turning for home or to take it up from the front.

He's on the short side for a trade but we can still invest 2 points at 4.3 (stan james) or on here, if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.2 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 2.78.

Best of luck.

I'm aware that the prices don't last long on some trades so if you want an alert when the Betfair Blogs get published you can follow on twitter @stoozbet
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 189 views ]
Trying to maintain the 100% success rate for this month we're turning again to the all weather at Kempton where in the 1st race the 18.20 we have a handicapper who has been slipping in the weights all year from a high of 96 last August down to an official rating today of 77. The gelding in question is the David Nicholls trained Snow Bay who consistently runs from the front to pull the field along. He hasn't been getting home in his races meaning that he's slipped in the weights & grade but he's been available to trade in each of his last 6 races in spite of a weak finish. This has been because of his ease of getting to the lead & maintaining it with a smooth traveling style, unfortunately he doesn't usually find much for pressure.

However he managed a good staying on 3rd in a similar race on turf last time out hinting that the elusive win may not be far away, when horses like this reach low weights they can be dangerous to give a lead to.

Snow Bay can be backed at the books at 9.0 and at 9.8 on here. A drift in price before the off would really not surprise me given his weak finishes so think twice before diving in straight away. Perhaps use a best odds guaranteed bookmaker to partially protect against this.

If you back for 2 points at 9.0, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2 or if you're shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7. Note the lay off prices are for the lower back prices at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish, do try to get a better price though & revise your lay off prices upwards.

Best of luck
Rate post:
4.1 (2 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 236 views ]
In the 15.15 at Brighton Inffiraaj goes for Mick Channon and she's a fillie who's been running well but not winning which has meant that her handicap mark has slipped throughout this summer.

She's been available to trade in 5 of her 6 handicap runs to date so hopefully we can get one more today.

Available to back at 8.5 at the books (betvictor, Hills) and on here, if you want 30% profit then lay off at 6.2 or if you want 50% profit lay off at 5.4.

Best of luck.
Rate post:
3.7 (1 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 334 views ]

Stall 3 Again At Kempton

06 Sep 12 11:10
Last night at Kempton stall 3 did the business with Alkadi going heavily odds on in running to provide us with a trade & tonight we turn back to the same stall in the 19.10 where a similar performance should provide us with the same all green screen.

Filling stall 3 tonight is the 4 year old fillie Flashbang who has recently been competing in handicaps a class above the race she goes in tonight. Usually at the business end of things she has a smooth traveling style which has made her available to trade in 9 of her last 10 races. Tonight the favourite is Kinglami because he went clear of the field last time out and only got nabbed close home however he is plenty short enough at 5/2 and he’s unlikely to get his own way from stall 10. If he wants to lead then he will have to work for it & may end up doing too much early on. So Flashbang is the selection for a trade.

Flashbang can be backed now for 2 points at 7.0. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.1 or if you’re looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.5 to give you a 1 point all round profit.

Best of luck
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 193 views ]

My Sharona To T T Trade!

06 Sep 12 08:44
Richard Hughes is now all out to win the flat jockey’s championship and wants to put the competition to bed before Ryan Moore returns from the sidelines. He & his agent are looking for every winner going & he managed to get himself aboard a nice ride 11 days ago on My Sharona. I would urge anyone to go to the Sporting Life website & watch the replay because it was evident to everyone that day that Hughes had a huge amount in hand and won by less than a length practically on the bridle. I think Hughes knew that he was aboard a well-handicapped horse in form & wanted to prevent her being wacked by the assessor.

My Sharona is turned out again today in the 15.45 at Sailsbury under a modest 4lb penalty and Hughes has retained the ride. As luck would have it she is also drawn very well in stall 2. She’s been a great horse to trade on too being available in running at the prices we would require in each of her last 11 starts

My Sharona is available to back for 2 points at 5.5 at the books & on here, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0 or if you’re shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit all round after commission.

Best of luck.

Place your bets then give this a play for good luck ;-) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4vKaiZQwUI
Rate post:
3.7 (1 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 407 views ]
The 19.30 at Kempton is an interesting 1m handicap and the 3 horses to focus on for trading purposes are all near the top of the market namely Dubai Sunshine, Kung Hei Fat Choi & Alkadi. The latter 2 of these are drawn beside each other in stalls 2 & 3 and with a no hoper in stall 1 they are ideally placed to get out & grab the lead early on. I think that Alkadi is the more likely of the 2 to take it up especially with Joe Fanning in the saddle who used these tactics on Alkadi to make all for victory aboard Alkadi 2 starts ago.

Dubai Sunshine is drawn wider in stall 9 so will struggle more to get across for the lead hence the choice is made for Alkadi. I think that Fanning is the key to this horse with 2 victories from 4 rides and trading as we would require each time. I'm hoping that the all weather champion can provide us with another vintage ride from the front which should be enough to get us our trade.

Alkadi can be backed now for 2 points at  5.5 at the books & 6.0 on betfair, if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5.

As usual I've put the lay off prices for the lower back prices at the bookies so that everyone can follow if they wish BUT I really think that you would want to be backing at at least 6.0 and this would be a fair SP. Always consider backing at best odds bookmakers to protect against any drift.

Best of luck


PS: whenever I post a betfair blog you can get notified on twitter @stoozbet
Rate post:
3.7 (1 Ratings)
Share |
report
2 Comments [ 232 views ]
In the 15.45 at Beverley the consistent 7 year old Liberty Island runs a grade lower than his last 2 races where he traded down to 2.02 & 2.04 respectively from a BSP of around 6.0.

Today he's been available to back at 10.0 on betfair this morning & 9.0 at the books. So go figure! He travels through his races very smoothly and is the selection to give us a trade today. It's been a later shout as the mood in the markets this morning was to take him on but it seems that the layers have come to their senses now.

Liberty Island is available to back at 8.0 at the books & 9.0 on here. If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point all round profit.

The lay off prices are for the lower back prices available at the books so that everyone can follow if they wish.

Best of luck.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
1 Comments [ 342 views ]

Page 25 of 30  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | ... | 30 | Next
www.betfair.com