stoozbet

We backed Alkadi at the beginning of this month for a trade, see here: http://community.betfair.com/stoozbet/blog/2012/09/05/alkadi-to-get-us-an-all-weather-trade

That day she did the business for us trading down to 1.31 in running & finishing 2nd. Today Alkadi runs again in the 16.40 at Beverley & I've been considering whether today is right to put her up again to trade on & it's not a clear cut yes but on the balance of probabilities it's just about a yes. I'll outline the factors going into making the decision.

Why yes?

She's bang in form being available to trade in all 5 of her last 5 starts including last time out in a class above this one (we skipped that race due to the step up in class). I've said before that Jo Fanning is the key to this horse, never one to shy away from attempting to make all those positive tactics are what have enabled her to trade for us in the past & it's highly likely they will be used again. I was disappointed to see the books price Alkadi up at 3/1 this morning however now even after a Non Runner 7/2 is widely available which is a much nicer price to try & trade from.

Why no?

The main question mark is over the ground. Officially described as Good it's been eased from Good to Firm over night. BBC weather is showing as rain expected at 2pm so it's likely to have 2 hours more rainfall before this race starts. Her best performances have all come on good to firm ground so as she's unproven on a softer surface this brings in an element of doubt. This is probably the reason for her easing in price out to 9/2.

On the balance of things she's usually the last horse to come off the bridle & her strong form has swayed me to put her up for a trade. The drift may continue so I'd be using your friendly Best Odds Bookmaker to protect against any further drift.

Back Alkadi now for 2 points at 7/2 (4.5). If you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.3 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 2.9.

Best of luck.


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