stoozbet

Apologies for the pair of terrible headlines for todays posts!

Sometimes you look at the shape of a race & feel that you can get right inside how it is likely to be run & I get this feeling about the 17.00 at Yarmouth. Sometimes it can go very wrong & you look stupid but here goes...

We have a very strong favourite in the shape of Willie Wag Tail currently at 1.90. This is because he's what you would call an "eyecatcher" and has been unlucky in running in his last 2 races, coming from a long way back he was checked at a crucial stage. Now whilst this is crucial information it was clear to see & everyone had it marked down so this is reflected in a very short price. Now I don't know about you but I'm not a fan of backing "unlucky" horses, I like mine to be the ones that always seem to get the split when needed, what is is they say about good players making their own luck?

The reason I think Willie Wag Tail ran on so strongly & eye-catchingly last time out was due to a very strong pace for him to run at, that race was a 19 runner handicap at York thus ensuring a breakneck gallop which was always bound to set things up for a closer. Todays race only has 6 runners thus making it much more likely to be a tactical affair. This makes the 1.91 an easy enough offer to pass up.

The 2nd in the betting is Maria's Choice who is another hold up horse so for the same reason can be passed over.

There are 2 horses to be interested in for trading purposes, these are Assizes & Expert Fighter. Both are very valid trading options but Assizes is stepping up in class from his normal level & has a new jockey on board which makes me lean towards Expert Fighter.

Last time out both Expert Fighter & Willie Wag Tail were in the same race, Expert Fighter was at the front of things helping to set the high tempo gallop and still cruised to the front on the bridle around 2f from home under Frankie Dettori, he then bottomed out & dropped well away but had traded from a BSP of 19.0 down to 2.1. There are few better judges of pace than L Dettori & today I think that we can see Expert Fighter sent to the front with the minimum of competition, Frankie should be able to get a breather into his mount through the middle part of the race, before kicking again from the front to steal a march towards the finish line.

If the race is run to suit then Expert Fighter looks a big price right now to win but we just need a few things to go as planned for his price to drop at least enough to give us a trade.

There is currently a gap between Betfair & the bookies but I've been building a stake for Expert Fighter at 11.0. That is about the sort of price you would want to achieve for 2 points, if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.2 or if you're shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.2 to give you a 1 point profit all green screen.

Best of luck

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