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So we've had 3 successful trades from 3 selections to give us a perfect start to this trading project. For 2 of the selections we had to go in-play to get our trade but in one of them we were fortunate enough to have the price drop to our required lay off price prior to the off.

As a trader this is the perfect situation because we've made our profit without having to hold the risk of the race going in play. As soon as the starting stalls open thousands of variables impact on how each horse's price will trade and whilst we can make our best guess as to what will happen it doesn't always go according to plan.

For this reason if we can take our money off the table before the race goes off then we should. It's risk free money.

So to take advantage of these risk free situations when they arrive lets introduce a rule which says if we can take a 30% profit pre race then we should trade out.

To clarify our normal profit is 50% ie back for 2 points and lay for 3 points to make 1 point profit all round. So we're making a 50% return on our investment of 2 points.

From now on I will be recording results so that if a 30% profit presents itself then we will take it. However if the 30% profit does not become available pre race then we will stick with our target of a 50%, 1 point profit. With all selections from now on I'll post a 30% profit pre race lay off price and also a 50% lay off price incase we have to go in-play.

The reason for going for the larger profit if we have to go in play is because we are taking on more risk, if we are taking on more risk then we should be rewarded for doing so.

I've got some good selections lined up for tomorrow (sunday) to hopefully keep the good run going. 3 points profit is a great start, lets see where this can take us!
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Looking to put a run together with the last race at Newmarket the 17.35.

The horse we're interested in is Moon Trip. This horse appears to like the firmer ground and is another very progressive type. The horse won comfortably over 2m last time out but prior to that has run with credit at 1m4f & shorter.

As he has the the stamina the faster they go the better for him, but he also has a burst of speed which negates the worries about how the race is run. He can go from the front or be held up but either way I expect this improver to run with credit under a penalty and drop in price at some point to give us a trade.

Available to back right now at 5.5 on here & with Sportingbet for 2 points, put your lay bet in at 3.6 for 3.05 points to give you an all green screen of 1 point profit.

Best of luck
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Looking for A Riotous Trade

28 Jul 12 10:57
After yesterdays successful start I'll try to build on that today.

In the 15.20 at Ascot I'm looking at the Ralph Beckett trained Riot of Colour. The filly has been holding her own in this grade and in her 6 races to date she's traded down to at least 2.02. She's been improving nicely and cheekpieces are applied today to try & get some further improvement.

She is typically held up just behind the leaders & her strong traveling style means that around 2f from home her price will drop enough for us to get a trade.

She's available to back now at 6.8 on Betfair for 2 points, put your lay bet in at 4.4 for 3.05 points to give yourself an all green screen of 1 point.

There is a possibility that the market may push her out before the off so if you're feeling conservative you may want to wait until near the off to get a better back price.

Best of luck.
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Hello all,

A very warm welcome to my Trading blog. Winning at Gambling is an incredibly hard thing to do but it is most definitely possible by carrying out in depth form study and finding the value within markets.

There are many different strategies that you can use to make money on the exchanges. My strategy of choice has been pioneered by one of the legends of the Betfair blog, someone who is no longer on here but is still plying his trade, Jinxy1.

The basic strategy applies to any horse race where you back a horse prior to the race with a view to trading out of your position during the race in order to give yourself an even profit in every outcome.

The basic strategy is to back a horse for 2 pts and then when the price shortens if the horse runs well lay it off for 3 pts to give you an all round profit of 1 pt.

Here's an example:

If we say that 1pt = £10

We would back our horse "Tradeplease" for 2 pts IE £20 at a price of say 10's (decimal odds). I know that to make a return on my investment of 50% that I need the odds to drop by 1/3rd or by 33%. I will then put a LAY bet in the queue at a price of 6.6 for 3 pts which is £30. I will check the "keep in play" button so that the lay bet is still offered after the race starts. I am then hoping for my horse "Tradeplease" to run well so that the price drops to 6.6 or below. When my £30 lay bet gets matched I will have an all green positive position on the race of +£10 regardless of whether my horse goes on to win or not.

No selection is ever bombproof and winning in the long term is about consistency but in order to win you have to be able to loose without it affecting your decision making. Therefore no trade will ever be more than 2 points, this should be 2% of your betting bank.


So for the 1st Selection


In the 16.40 at Ascot the horse I'm looking to trade on is Love Your Looks. The filly is stepping up in class which makes her an unusual selection for me but she's been hugely progressive this year and has traded odds on in her last 5 races. She's got a great attitude and will stick on up the Ascot hill and I expect the step up in trip to suit.

Available to back now at 7.6 for 2 points, put your lay bet in the queue for 3.05 points at 4.8 and hope for the 1 point green screen (after commission).

Another variable to note is that last time out she finished 2nd by a head to Moone's My Name. This horse runs in the 15.30 listed event earlier in the day so if Moone's My Name wins or runs well the form will gain a boost & the price should shorten before the race. However the oposite can also happen, regardless I still expect Love Your Looks to trade nicely.
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