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Stoozbet's Trading Blog

August Results

31 Aug 12 17:31
Scarlet Whispers. No trade. -2 points
Miss Ellany. 4.0 down to 2.98. +0.6 point
Half A Billion. 5.0 down to 2.12. +1 point
Clear Praise. 5.0 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
New Falcon. 8.0 down to 4.5. +1point
Love Your Looks. 13.0 down to 2.5. +1 point
Chosen Character. 7.0 down to 5.0 pre race. +0.6 point
Travellers Tale. 10.0 down to 3.25. +1 point
Dancheur. 4.9 down to 2.96. +1 point
Storm Moon. No trade. -2 points
Communicator. 5.5 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Miss Ellany. 8.0 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Strada Facendo. 10.0 down to 4.8. +1 point
Light From Mars. 11.0 down to 3.55. +1 point
Urban Kode. No trade. -2 points
Hunters Belt. 8.0 down to 5.1. Partial match at 1 point lay off price but only counting as +0.6 point
Shirocco Star. 10.0 down to 7.0. +0.6 point
Bated Breath. 6.2 down to 3.25. +1 point
Opt Out. 7.5 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Ypres. 6.4 down to 2.12. +1 point
Granston. 6.5 down to 1.31. +1 point
Maverick. 5.4 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Johnny Lesters Hair. No trade. -2 points
Miss Cap Estel. 5.5 down to 2.5 +1 point
Bunce. 6.0 down to 3.8. +1 point
Blue Shoes. 4.5 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Joyful Spirit. 5.5 and WON thereby trading down to 1.01. +1 point
Devdas. No trade. -2 points
Peter Island. No trade. -2 points

Total = 9.4 points

29 selections, 23 traded 6 didn't trade, strike rate 79.3%. ROI 16.2%

If you didn't trade & just punted the selections then 7 of them actually won. If you had punted £1 on each of them then you would be showing a profit of +12.4 points and a huge 42% ROI.

If this trend continues then perhaps we should look to punt rather than trade. However I like the positive validation the comes from being able to achieve a high strike rate on trades. If we didn't have the 2 reversals today then the trading figures would be outstanding but that's the nature of the game. We also ended July with 2 losses after a positive month and there is nothing like a loss to refocus the mind. It's certainly better to have them at the end of a profitable month rather than at the beginning of a new one when we wipe the slate clean.

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Peter Island is a front running 9 year old who until earlier this month had been of the racecourse for 13 months. However he returned earlier this month in a similar contest to todays race and ran with the enthusiasm of a 3 year old to jump out & see off all his opponents from the front.

Peter Island goes today in the 14.50 at Sandown. On the Sandown 5f course stalls 1-4 have an advantage and Peter Island is drawn in 4, stall 1 has become a non runner thereby upgrading him by 1 stall & making it easier to grab a (hopefully) uncontested lead. The valid favourite is Swendab who should probably go in but he's unlikely to lead from stall 8 and usually requires some jockey encouragement from a fair way out to mount his challenge. If we get to 2f from home with Peter Island traveling smoothly and the other jockeys nudging away then the price should contract enough to give us our trade.

Peter Island can be backed at 7.5 with the books & 7.8 on here (possibly drifting), if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.5 or if you're shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.8 to give you a 1 point profit in every outcome.

Best of luck.

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Devdas To Trade At Sandown

31 Aug 12 12:03
In the 16.35 at Sandown the Clive Cox trained Devdas runs over 1m.  The 3 year old colt has been available to trade in 8 of his last 9 starts and he's traded odds on in his last 2 races which were both a better class than he competes in today.

We can expect Devdas to be held up just off the pace at a course where horses just held up off the pace are favored. He should be delivered around 2f from home where he will pick up nicely where we can expect his price to drop enough to give us our trade.

Devdas can be backed now for 2 points at 5.5 at the bookies & 5.8 on here, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in every outcome (after commission).

Best of luck.

(Note that again I've put the lay off prices for the lower back price at the bookies so that everyone has a chance of following if they wish, if you use a BOG bookie then you may partially protect yourself against any possible drift that may occur).
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Can We Get A Joyful Trade?

30 Aug 12 11:56
I've looked through Lingfield & Kempton today and come up with just 1 selection for trading in the 14.30 on the turf course at Lingfield.

The 3 year old fillie Joyful Spirit runs again today with regular jockey Ted Durcan aboard and in every run this year she has gone clear of the field and traveled very well in doing so. Timeform's opening comment is "expensive to follow after showing promise". Fortunately for us this has been for win purposes as she's been available to trade in running in 5 of her last 6 runs with the only time she didn't being the only time she ran over less than a mile.

I'm putting this tip up early so that everyone can get on BUT the price comes with a serious health warning! There has been a mood to take her on by the betfair layers and she's also drifting at the bookies. She can be backed at 5.5 at the books & 5.7 on here but I really wouldn't be surprised if the SP is larger than this.

So I'll put up prices now but be wary of steaming in & maybe hedge by using a Best Odds Bookmaker to partially protect you if any drift does occur.

Joyful Spirit can be backed for 2 points now at 5.5 with the bookies & 5.7 on here, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, if your looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5.

(note again that the lay off prices are for the lower back prices at the bookies so that everyone has a chance of following if they wish)

Best of luck.

PS I post all selections on twitter so if you want to get them 1st I'm @stoozbet
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So according to google it's raining in Carlisle right now which is good for the front running Blue Shoes who goes in the 15.00 today. The 3 year old fillie is justifiably favourite for the contest but she's at a price where even if she doesn't win I still think a trade is a safe option.

She loves to get out ahead of the field & has a high cruising speed which should get most of her opponents off the bridle before she does and give us our trade.

Blue Shoes can be backed widely at 9.2 (4.5) for 2 points, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.4, or if you're shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 2.9.

Best of luck.
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Bunce To Trade At Catterick

29 Aug 12 10:46
In the 16.10 at Catterick a speedy type called Bunce runs in the 16.10.

He usually goes from the front and at a track where prominent runners are slightly favoured when he jumps out ahead the market should react accordingly. We also have the advantage of a good draw and with him dropping down in class & trip which I expect to suit I'm hoping for an early(ish) trade.

Bunce can still be backed at 6.0 for 2 points at the bookies (Stan James), if you're looking for 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.4 or if you're shooting for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.85.

Best of luck
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Estel At Epsom

28 Aug 12 16:38
A quick shout for the Andrew Balding trained Miss Cap Estel in the 17.00 at Epsom.

Not much time so I'll keep it brief but she's traded in her last 4 outings including her 1st 3 runs in handicaps which were a grade higher than today. She gained her 1st victory last time out under todays jockey so the form is all there for a good run today.

Miss cap Estel can be backed now for 5.5 at the books & on here for 2 points, for 30% profit lay off at 4.0, or for 50% profit lay off at 3.5.

Best of luck
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At Ripon in the 16.15 a tough front running handicapper (as described by Tmeform) goes by the name of Johnny Lesters hair He's been consistently making the frame throughout 2012 without a win since he was 1st home at this course nearly a year a go. Finally the handicapper has started to loosen his grip which I'm hoping will allow Johnny Lesters Hair to produce a big run and give us our trade.

He's also not been getting home in his latest races over 1m2f so I expect the drop back to 1m today to suit, He should go from the front & if he's still there with about 1f to go then the price should drop to give us a trade.

Johnny Lesters Hair can be backed now for 2 points at 8.5 with the bookies or at 9.0 on here, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.4.

Best of luck.

Again I've put the lay off prices for the lower back prices at the bookies so that if people wish to follow they can.
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A Wild Maverick At Epsom

27 Aug 12 15:16
In spite of all the racing today I've just come up with the 1 selection from a rather long shortlist, it's never a great thing to have question marks about draw, ground running style, fitness etc etc so the only selection that I've produced is Maverick in the 17.25 at Epsom.

He ran well just 15 days ago and likes to stride along near the head of affairs which should see his price shorten enough to give us a trade. He's been running well in partnership with todays jockey Jim Crowley and usually competes in better quality races than this handicap today so if he's able to enjoy himself near the front the market should react accordingly & shorten him up.

Maverick can be backed widely at 5.0 and 5.4 on here for 2 points. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2.

Best of luck.

PS Again I've put the lay off prices for the lower back price at the bookies so that everyone has the chance of getting on if they wish to follow.
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A beautiful grey 11 year old goes in the 16.05 at Beverley by the name of Granston. The old boy has been a tremendous servant to connections for many years and has been consistent although he's been in the grip of the handicapper for the last year or so. Only recently has the handicapper started to release and he's now dropped to a tempting mark & is able to get into this class 5 handicap. Last time in a better race at this venue he hinted that he's still got all the old enthusiasm for the job running on well at the end, he's returned to his usual trip of 1m4f today and I think that he can get us a trade late on.

Granston can be backed now at 9/2 (5.5) on here & with Betvictor, if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0 or if you're looking for 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5.

Best of luck.
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