Pinza

LINGA
12.50 LA ESTRELLA
1.20  JAGANORY
1.55  DAT IL DO (fillies have a poor record though)
2.25  NANCY ASTOR
3.00  PETERHOUSE
3.35  . Three top
4.10  SPOWARTICUS

4.35  No Selection
5.10  Bosstime  (not keen on this)
5.40  THOMAS BLOSSOM
6.10  HILL OF DREAMS
6.40  HAWKSBURY
7.10  AYE AYE SKIPPER

Todays Tops
1.15; Novalist 25 b
1.45; Eium Mac 7 b (2nd)
2.15; Excelling Oscar 25 b
2.50; Marilyn Mon 41 (3rd)
3.25; Scarborough 31 (Joint) (won)
3.25; Oriental Relation 9 b (Joint)
4.00; Canadian Diamond 26 hp1

Comments;
1.15
Madam Mirasol;   No top weight that was top  Racing Post Rating has won a class 6 hcp this year. Six have failed (including Harwoods Star yesterday)

Queen of Skies, joint top weight, has RPR highest (TS) speed figure.
Similar factors show no winners from five races at Southwell during Dec and so far this year.

Novalist: Not confident with the two recent wins. Past records show better if won last two races.


1.45
Eium Mac:  Attempt to be the third class6  hcp winner of year that is top RPR rated.

37 others  have  failed to  win

Both  winners had  my top  score (May  Hay &  Thomas  Blossom)  and 4 other top scores failed to win.

Continuing with RPR  this year  5 highest rated  that  finished 2nd On latest  run have
All failed to win, but the three that ran Southwell were all  placed.

On that basis Eium  Mac should be placed.


3.25
Extreme Supreme  has top RPR TS speed. (Derek Shaw also had same with Loyalty on Sunday - unpl).  Two 4yo’s this year failed in this grade hcp and from
Total of  16 of the same age group in all hcp grades there has only been two placed.
Archies Advice who very similar form (311) was unplaced at 5/2fav, but over much
Longer distance.


4.00
Carlanda falls in the Top Weight & Top RPR  category as discussed in 1.15 race

WOLV

top    Horse      days    Age
nb    Naoise 16 t     7
Y    Yair Hill 10 p     7

Y    Pearl Nation 8 h     6

Y    Harwoods Star 8 t     5

Y    Ability N Delivery 3     10

Y    Beta Tauri 35     3
Y    Cape Cay 27     3
Y    Dutch Uncle 16     3

nb    Oratorio´s Joy 5     5
Y    Thecornishcowboy 3 t     6

Comments:
Gone through all and can't really be confident.

Claimer should be between top & bottom (Tops have best record)
Harwoods Star looks best but Williams record here doesn't inspire with 5yo's at the minimum distance but should be placed.

Ability Deliver is too old at 10yrs

The 3yo hcps have insufficient runs/wins to give a high score

5.25 Dutch Uncle looks best but Ed Dunlop in Jan with mdn wins isn't.

5.55 I prefer the NB Oratorio's Joy on form figures. (Usually recent win or 2nd LTO in similar past races.

The data is from Racing Post entries and input into database.
Other data from newspapers input into d/b.
Top score relates to CD, C, DC and D, plus Newspaper "spot"( highest rating) horses and hints.
The top score is the highest figure of the combined information.
Sometimes the Next Best (NB) are considered if within 1 point of top figure.
Sometimes there are Joint top score (J) and occasionally joint next best (NBJ)
That is the basic method.
It's simplistic really and just a guide.

However the win rate of the selected could be better if other avenues are explored.

Comparing previous races at Track, Distance & Grade, in particular month, over last few years is best, but time consuming.

The ratings from other sources are useful for comparison and support.
"Theonlywayforward" provided his ratings and was quite  successful when top figures matched. "Grendel" is an AW expert and Southwell selections are worthy of a bet.

Using the RPR rating over the period from December 1st show that there have been 76 winners that were highest rated (361 races).

Comparing the Daily Express Spot there were 96 winners.

For Virgin and  any other interested parties

TOP SCORES since Jan 4th
9 denotes unplaced

pos    Horse                days
9    Divertimenti 2 b
won    Lucky Mark 17 p
won    Showtime Star 16 h
won    Apache Storm 29
9    Bognor 16
won    Abi Scarlet 16
9    Percys Princess 13
won    Harry Hurricane 170
9    Jolly Red Jeanz 38 b
2    Missandei 21
3    Lord Of The Storm 24
9    Fire In Babylon 9 b
won    Thomas Blossom 33 v
9    Enzaal 24
9    Toofeeg 29 b1
2    Best Tamayuz 10 h
won    Ruban 32 t
9    Laughing Rock 19 v
2    Eium Mac 5 6xb
2    Matraash 23 eb
won    Apparatchika 167
9    Johnny Splash 18 v
9    Sheila´s Buddy 21
4    Varsovian 20
2    Warbond 20 p
2    Fire King 27 p
2    Hollie Point 81
won    Brigliadoro 16
3    Celestial Bay 20
9    New Rich 35 b
9    Haadeeth 6 tb
3    Hell Of A Lord 195
9    Lucky Mark 4 6xp
9    Sooqaan 20
9    Keep To The Beat 76J p
2    Red Stripes 7 6xb
3    Glorious Dancer 8
9    Khajaaly 33 tv
9    Geordan Murphy 21
3    Poppy Bond 6 6x
9    Golly Miss Molly 19 b
3    Belrog 275
3    China Club 12 b1
won    Don´t Be 18
won    Sabre Rock 10 6xt
2    Invincible Ridge 32 t
won    Topaling 25
won    Dream Child 13
won    Admirable Art 10 6xp
9    Kachou
9    Magical Effect 91
9    The Dream Fast 39
9    Pharoh Jake 10
9    Wrood 57
9    Turning Times 136
3    Rakaan 7 p

TODAYS
    Zamoura 37
    Blue Aegean 134 h1
    Zac Brown 37 h1
    Super Kid 50 p
    Lunar Deity 8
    Copper Cavalier 15 v

The blog is currently tied in with forum post titled "2.30 Southwell"

Continuing with January "spot" project.
12.20 Monein (stable usually in Dubai at this time of year)
12.50 Classic Colori
1.25 Jack of Diamonds
2.00 Personal Opinion
2.35 Boom The Groom (sots rarely win this class hcp)
3.10 no selection
3.45 Caminel

New try out for the New Year. Only AW Flat racing.
12.50: MAJOR ROWAN
1.30: Little
2.05: GROSMONT
2.40: Poyle Vinnie
3.15: Reve De Nuit
3.35: Swing Alone (Royal Maskel)

Not the best of days, but first attempt at deciphering of loads of data collected over last 3 years.
Working to the "spot" selects from two newspapers, plus other enhancing (?) features that are used for scoring.

No winners from the selections today.
Major Rowan was the highest score of the two spot runners in the first race, and low behold the Express spot (A 6yo maiden) won the race at 16/1.

Was not keen on the 3yo race as not looked at that age group.
   
Looking at the spot runners in Conditions race (Dungannon & Poyle Vinnie) I was wary of Dungannon, as it seemed to best horse in race, and I've been caught out by laying the best horse on two occasions recently (Shyron yesterday), so set a low lay bet at 1.53 - on the basis that the higher age group rarely win these conditions races on AW - and the winner was a 9yo!!!

That one ran poorly six days ago, but wins today over 5f.
The previous post included mention of Woolfall having a chance of beating Pretend - (My other lay bet)
"Two dangers are Woolfall Sovereign that has won all its AW races between Dec & January months. Recent wins have been over the shorter 5f though - but Wolver seems its best track."

Grosmont was a let down in the maiden race, as the last 3 years the race had been won by the Mirror spot horse.

The claimer races are the least profitable with this experiment and was not a viable race to bet in considering a long odds on favourite who won the race last year. Even that failed to win today.

The last race was a none starter, because I was looking for the Top 3 weights to match one of the Top three in betting and that did not materialise, although The Lock Master did slip in as joint 3RD in betting, it was not a spot horse.

1.10
Rarely is this race won by a runner that has achieved more than one 2nd placing.
Secret Glance comes to the race with three and Kyrenia comes with two.
That leaves Rahmaah with just the one second placing and FTO Tavener.

1.45
The Godolphin set up has changed its stance on December AW runners and this has proved well this year for the 2yo's.

Pretend the 3yo comes to this race after a Hcp win in same grade.
Looking back over the years there appears to be one 3yo horse that had won both a B hcp and Bcon races. That was Secrecy and it took a years break to win both.

Pretend comes here within 7 days!
It seems they have taken a while to realise that 6f is the distance for Pretend - or is it? At current odds of 4/7 it might be worth avoiding.
Most of their 3yo's have ran at Listed or Group level before conditions race win.


Two dangers are Woolfall Sovereign that has won all its AW races between Dec & January months. Recent wins have been over the shorter 5f though - but Wolver seems its best track.

Baddalini has a chance on it's form with Secondo (link to Pretend) and won't be far away on the weights. Two of its 3 wins were with first time up jockeys and Chris Catlin has a 40% record for Alan Bailey.
The track also suits him based upon his two runs, a win and close 2nd.

Totally wrong in first two races so trying the last few races
3.05
3yo bottom weights with a win LTO do fairly well so going with MOULIN ROUGE

3.40
Botti farms these class 2 hcps on AW so going with SOLAR DIETY

4.45
Back to the 3yo bottom weights in this but can't decide between
KNOW YOUR NAME and YARD OF ALE

This meeting over Friday & Saturday has shown that top speed horses have a very decent strike rate.
I use Speed Plus and Split Second via Raceform Interactive.
Taking todays races the horses that are top in either of the two ratings are..
12.30 Tafahom
1.00  Crown Command
1.30 Unison / Ventura Quest
2.00 Terror
2.35 Red Pike
3.10 Headline News / Bantam
3.45 Sohar / Entihaa
4.15 Eurystheus

Yesterdays Results
12.30 unplaced
1.00 unplaced
1.30 WON 20/1 (Unison)
2.00 WON 1/5F
2.35 WON 5/6F
3.10 WON 4/1 (Bantam 2nd)
3.45 2ND 11/2 (Sohar)
4.14 WON 9/4F


SATURDAY
12.20 Ignoring this race
12.50 Shadow Rock / Dark Wave; Going with Shadow Rock
1.25 Lady Of Dubai / Encore L'amour
2.00 Dream Walker / Uncle Dermot
2.35 Air Pilot / Educate
3.10 Bronze Angel
3.45 Showboating
4.15 Teds Brother

The last two races look a bit dodgy as neither of the tops have produced there best for a while, so I'm including Pashan Garh who has been 2nd on both occasions that it ran in this race and Tiger Tim that produced it's best speed latest run.

Not as good as yesterday but I really messed up on 12.50 race. There were three runners with the top speed rating - Yorkriding, Shadow Rock and Rotherwick (winner). My brain was clearly out of gear on that race.

Still there were two winners with Dream Walker 14/1 (18.5 BF) and Air Pilot. Showboating let me down for a decent treble when finishing 2nd.

Was torn between French Navy and Bronze Angel in 3.10. The race stats said that Godolphin had a very good record in this race over last 5 years but Bronze Angel shaded French Navy on both Speed Plus and Split Second. The winner (French Navy) won with the penalty - which has now occurred on 5 occasions in last 20 years, to date, but the older age group,6yrs or more, have managed 3 wins from 8 races and now twice in last 2 years.