Todays Tops
1.15; Novalist 25 b
1.45; Eium Mac 7 b (2nd)
2.15; Excelling Oscar 25 b
2.50; Marilyn Mon 41 (3rd)
3.25; Scarborough 31 (Joint) (won)
3.25; Oriental Relation 9 b (Joint)
4.00; Canadian Diamond 26 hp1
Comments;
1.15
Madam Mirasol; No top weight that was top Racing Post Rating has won a class 6 hcp this year. Six have failed (including Harwoods Star yesterday)
Queen of Skies, joint top weight, has RPR highest (TS) speed figure.
Similar factors show no winners from five races at Southwell during Dec and so far this year.
Novalist: Not confident with the two recent wins. Past records show better if won last two races.
1.45
Eium Mac: Attempt to be the third class6 hcp winner of year that is top RPR rated.
37 others have failed to win
Both winners had my top score (May Hay & Thomas Blossom) and 4 other top scores failed to win.
Continuing with RPR this year 5 highest rated that finished 2nd On latest run have
All failed to win, but the three that ran Southwell were all placed.
On that basis Eium Mac should be placed.
3.25
Extreme Supreme has top RPR TS speed. (Derek Shaw also had same with Loyalty on Sunday - unpl). Two 4yo’s this year failed in this grade hcp and from
Total of 16 of the same age group in all hcp grades there has only been two placed.
Archies Advice who very similar form (311) was unplaced at 5/2fav, but over much
Longer distance.
4.00
Carlanda falls in the Top Weight & Top RPR category as discussed in 1.15 race
24 Jun 17
23 Jun 17
22 Jun 17
16 Jun 17
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FLAT RACING
Comments: 2
The RPR experiment proved useful today
Add the research on the hoof between races
and the results came pretty good today.
Surprised the 10yo General Tufto won as not many win on trot at that age. Mind you winner and 2nd were only two C&D winners in race. Took the place only on Eium Mac and got 1.86 in AvB bet.
Research on last race showed the likely winner should have finished 1st or 2nd in last three runs - just 3 qualifiers
and went with winner with saver on Sawwala (unpl)
It's a full day of work looking at stats though.
Leaving the 3yo hcps alone.
Add the research on the hoof between races
and the results came pretty good today.
Surprised the 10yo General Tufto won as not many win on trot at that age. Mind you winner and 2nd were only two C&D winners in race. Took the place only on Eium Mac and got 1.86 in AvB bet.
Research on last race showed the likely winner should have finished 1st or 2nd in last three runs - just 3 qualifiers
and went with winner with saver on Sawwala (unpl)
It's a full day of work looking at stats though.
Leaving the 3yo hcps alone.
It relates to Queen Of Skies in first race.
OR TS RPR
65 71 78 2 day declaration stage
65 51 81 raceday
I usually take the data at 2 or 1 day prior to race.
It's amazing how the Track Speed data changed.
However all the comparison is on same basis.
Nothing to rely on but nothing ever is.