2.25 ALBANY G3 2yo Fills
Not a race for me due to lack of races, but ALPHA CENTAUR1 comes out top due to 2 wins from 2 races over distance. (2nd)
3.05 KING EDWARD G2 3yo's
PERMIAN (8+(top) in 11 races . Top Career rating, 7+ (top) on turf runs and 2nd highest rating in race (WON)
BEST SOLUTION (2+) in 10 races. 2nd in career rating, 4+ on turf runs and Top rating in race.
Permian comes out best with 3 tops (total Score 163.5) compared to Best Solution having one (total score 153.5).
3.40 G1 3yo's
BLUE POINT (8+) in 7 races, Joint 2nd in career rating, 8+ on turf runs, 8+ over distance & 3rd rated in race (3rd)
CARAVAGGIO (10+ top) in 5 races (unbeaten), Joint 2nd career rating,8+ over turf, 6+ over distance. 2nd rated. (WON)
HARRY ANGEL (4+) in 4 races, Top career rating, 4+ over turf, 4+ over dist, Top Rated. (2nd)
Harry Angel is let down by lack of Course win in 2 runs at track, whilst other two both won their single race runs there.
It's a very close call between other two but Blue Point total score is 198.5 and Caravaggio has 196.5
On the basis value in prices it is worth going with Blue Point.
This time of year the 3yo's are very dodgy so i'm not keen on backing them.
2yo maidens are off the radar also.
Ratings are based upon past performance and there isn't enough to feed proper ratings, so it's best to stick with 4yo+ hcps.
Today there are several races where the top ratings confer with my top score system.
It will be interesting to compare the 2yo and 3yo's with the older generation (but not too old)
2yo qualifiers
2.00 AYR; POIGNANT unpl
2.15 BRIGHTON; HATEYA unpl
6.00 WINDSOR; KIT MARLOWE NR
6.40 PONTE; MISS DD WON2/1Fv
3yo qualifiers
2.30 AYR; PARADISE COVE (mdn race) WON 4/7 Fv
2.45 BRIGHTON; HAMSTER JAM (fillies E Hcp) unpl
6.30 WINDSOR; THINK FASHION (Maiden race)WON 10/3
7.40 PONTE; BLACK ISLE BOY (C hcp) unpl
8.10 PONTE; TRUE ROMANCE (D hcp) unpl
4YO+ qualifiers
3.00 AYR; HAYMARKET 3rd 2/1 fv
3.30 AYR; GWORN (this one comes 2nd on rating but in best form, and high score, always wary of dual winners.2nd 9/2
3.45 BRIGHTON; MORNINGTON (another dual winner) 3rd 11/8 fv
4.15 BRIGHTON; ZIPEDEEDODAH 2nd 7/4 fv
4.30 AYR; MY NAME IS RIO. This one carries 10-4 (above my limit 0f 10-0) WON 15/8 fv
5.00 AYR; TONTO'S SPIRIT (Lady Amateur race!) WON 4/6 fv
5.15 BRIGHTON; FANFAIR (apprentice race!) always wary of these. unpl 7/2fv
7.00 WINDSOR; BIOTIC 2nd 5/2 fv
8.40 PONTE; CASTLEREA TESS unpl
Summary:
The 2yo's had one win from three races Profit/Loss Nil.
3yo's had two winners from five races. All hcp races failed, but maiden races both won. Profit/Loss +1
4yo+ Seven favs of the nine races and just Two winners. Profit/ Loss - 6.5
Monday not a good day, low grade tracks and low number of runners per race have to be taken into account.
Three meetings today.
Top Scores (y) Next Best (nb)
Y 5 LINGA Triple Dip 144 . LINGA
Y 6 LINGA Henry Grace 42 b
nb 5+ LINGA Skidby Mill 21 (WON)
. LINGA
Y 5 LINGA Callac 21
. LINGA
nb 4 LINGA Swift Blade 39 h
Y 5+ LINGA Thecornishcowboy 11 t
. LINGA
nb 5+ LINGA Dishy Guru 32 b
Y 6 LINGA Pharoh Jake 21
. LINGA
Y 7 LINGA Beggers Luck 29
nb 5 LINGA Black Truffle 7 v
.
Y 5 SOUTH Tijan 147 h
nb 2+ SOUTH Legal Art 27
. SOUTH
NB 5 SOUTH Blazeofenchantment 14 v
y 6+ SOUTH Tartan Trip 20 v
nb 5+ SOUTH Pearl Nation 18 h (WON)
Y 8 SOUTH Two Moons 14
. SOUTH
Y 6 SOUTH Lucky Mark 27 p
NB 5 SOUTH Coiste Bodhar 22 b
. SOUTH
Y 8 SOUTH What Asham 8 (WON)
. SOUTH
Y 7 SOUTH Light The City 5J
.
co 5 KEMPA Chevise 35 b
co 5 KEMPA Baltic Prince 15
coy 5+ KEMPA Major Muscari 27 p
. KEMPA
Y 4 KEMPA Clampdown 12 (WON) . KEMPA
NB 4 KEMPA Mrs Warren 153 Y 6 KEMPA Elusive Ellen 32 t (WON) . KEMPA
NB 2++ KEMPA Honourable Action 13
Y 4 KEMPA Ya Hade Ye Delil 182 . KEMPA
NB 4+ KEMPA City Of Angkor Wat 7 p (WON) Y 5+ KEMPA Biotic 169 . KEMPA
Y 4 KEMPA Tears Of The Sun 139
Potential Lays LINGA 4.00 Swift Blade 39 h
LINGA 4.00 Estibdaad 11 t
SOUTH 3.50 Meshardal 301
KEMPA 7.45 Bountybeamadam 182 p
KEMPA 7.45 Ocean Legend 2
KEMPA 8.15 Mambo Rhythm 179 v
Experimental
2.50 South; Blazeofenchantment
3.30 Linga: Valentine Mist
4.00 Linga: Comedy House
4.30 Linga: Dishy Guru
5.00 Linga: Teenager (WON) 5.45 Kempa: Chevise
6.15 Kempa: Hold Firm
Experimental 2 2.20 South: Tijan
3.00 Linga: Henry Grace
3.20 South: Two Moors
4.20 South: What Asham
4.50 South: Light The City
Reserves.
3.30 Linga Callal
5.00 Linga Beggars Luck
8.15 Kempa Tears Of The Sun.
My Best Today 2.20 Tijan
2.50 Tartan Trip
3.20 Two Moons
3.30 Callac
4.20 What Asham
4.50 Light The City
5.00 Beggars Luck
UPDATE:
Rubbish today on the scores.
Kempton is usually my worst AW track for winners but was the besttoday.
Two Experiments failed miserably. (They were to do with Daily Mirror tipsters)
All Lays beaten (2 NR's)
With time to go through and compare past results today (Track,grade,distance) it paid dividends.
I have to do the full works and most of it is on the hoof (between races)
Take the maidens - past results of similar races Feb-April months showed high percentage won by FTO runners or Long Break.
Backed all three winners of maidens, which is unusual as rarely bother with those races.
The system is expanding and can be looked at various ways.
Going through Chelmsford card last night.
comparing the RPR & Top speed best figures in the races - similarly with past results
Two horses came out with strong chances based upon age of race, form, grade and track.
Plaisir and Winter Queen
5.10
Further research with Plaisir presented doubts when looking at Botti's record with maiden fillies that had been placed 2nd.
More doubts when looking at claimer jockeys in such races (Maiden fillies). In her races so far she looks like not having the final burst to win (one paced near finish).
Plaisir Lay bet
5.40
Winter Queen has already won two races. So far this year I make it 20 horses (14 Races) that have won two successive races in 3yo hcps - and only 3 have won. All three won at Kempton.
Charlie Appleby put a 3lb claimer on Winter Queen, when 2nd LTO, and today puts up 7lb claimer.
The record with claimers relating to the 20 horses is one win from five rides (Alistair Rawlinson 5lb).
That win was on Godolphin runner (Suroor).
This race is the fourth race this year where there was a runner with two successive wins AND WHEN top RPR matches with Top speed - two won and Coursing was beaten yesterday (2nd).
Winter Queen No bet
6.1O
Third Strike looking to achieve a third win on the trot.
He would be the first this year in his AGE group (4yo) and grade.
It appears on past results in such circumstances that a Course win is essential (Difficult with this new track)
lay bet
6.40
The versatile Putin catches the eye in this race.
Surely the up in grade (F to E) and distance (8f to 6f) will test this today.
Eight 7yo's this year have failed to repeat a win with a penalty (and neither has Putin won with the penalty)
Lay bet
7.10
4yo's with penalty appear have great difficulty to win above E grade in hcps so this D grade race might be against Vosne Romanee
Also not much going for dual winner Stonecutter.
UPDATE OK there's usually one to spoil the party (Third Strike) but all the horses mentioned were either Top Score or next best (Vosne Romnanee).
GLEIGHS normally has at least one Top Score winner and was hoping it would be in last two races (Miniskirt or Joints Youm Jamil/ Ever Yours