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ROYAL ASCOT Day 5

24 Jun 17 09:33

A bit low key today.
The maths exercise has taken it's toll, but well worth it with profit of £318 over the last 4 days.

Saturday Bets

Thomas Hobson @ 5/2
Normandy Barriere @ 14/1
Dartmouth @ 2/1
Central Square @ 15/2

Yankee, 11 bets * £1.00  E/W


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ROYAL ASCOT DAY 4

24 Jun 17 08:57
2.25 ALBANY G3 2yo Fills
Not a race for me due to lack of races, but  ALPHA CENTAUR1 comes out top due to 2 wins from 2 races over distance. (2nd)

3.05 KING EDWARD G2 3yo's
PERMIAN (8+(top) in 11 races . Top Career rating, 7+ (top) on turf runs and 2nd highest rating in race (WON)

BEST SOLUTION (2+) in 10 races. 2nd in career rating, 4+ on turf runs and Top rating in race.

Permian comes out best with 3 tops (total Score 163.5) compared to Best Solution having one (total score 153.5).

3.40 G1 3yo's
BLUE POINT (8+) in 7 races, Joint 2nd in career rating, 8+ on turf runs, 8+ over distance & 3rd rated in race (3rd)

CARAVAGGIO (10+ top) in 5 races (unbeaten), Joint 2nd career rating,8+ over turf, 6+ over distance. 2nd rated. (WON)

HARRY ANGEL (4+) in 4 races, Top career rating, 4+ over turf, 4+ over dist, Top Rated. (2nd)

Harry Angel is let down by lack of Course win in 2 runs at track, whilst other two both won their single race runs there.
It's a very close call between other two but Blue Point total score is 198.5 and Caravaggio has 196.5
On the basis value in prices it is worth going with Blue Point.

4.20 3yo fills G1

WINTER score 178.5  (WON)
DABYAH score 159
hydrangea score 141
La Corenel score 70
Precieuse score 164.5
Roly Poly score 144.5
Tomyris score 145.5

5.00 Queen's Vase 3yo G2

The 3 earmarked are way ahead of rest  (all unplcd)
DESERT SKYLINE 140
TIME TO STUDY 136.5
FIERCE IMPACT 129.5


5.35 DUKE OF EDINBURGH HCP  (all unplcd)
CAPE COVA 159.5
SOLDIER IN ACTION 157
WAGIDOR 154







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ROYAL ASCOT Day 3

22 Jun 17 20:22
As the previous posts (last week) showed 3yo+ & 4yo+ definitely favours the ratings.

Royal Ascot has been good for me so far but the races/age reads
2yo NIL from 3
3yo 2 wins from 3 races
3yo+/4yo+ 5 wins from 6 races

ASCOT BETS day 1
Ribchester @ 6/5
Brother Bear @ 11/2
Marsha @ 7/2
Barney Roy @ 5/2
Thomas Hobson @ 6/1
Declarationofpeace @ 5/2
Heinz, 57 bets * £0.25 £14.25 £58.24
--------
Ribchester @ 6/5
Brother Bear @ 11/2
Declarationofpeace @ 5/2
Lady Aurelia @ 4/1
Yorkidding @ 16/1
Barney Roy @ 5/2
Heinz, 57 bets * £0.25

Day 2
Le Brivido @ 11/4
Qemah @ 2/1
Jack Hobbs @ 3/1
Tabarrak @ 25/1 (placed)
Tisbutadream @ 16/1 (placed)
Super Yankee, 26 bets * £0.25 E/W £13.00 £32.40

DAY 3 BETS
Havana Grey @ 7/1
Orderofthegarter @ 13/2 (placed)
Mori @ 5/2 (placed)
Order Of St George @ 1/1 (placed)
Afaak @ 16/1
Drochaid @ 14/1 (placed)
Heinz, 57 bets * £0.50 E/W
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Todays Qualifiers
2yo's
1.50 SOSIAN 2nd 4/1 Cnov
2.00 GLACEON 3rd 4/5 fv Enov
5.55 KLOSTERS WON 11/10 fv Dnov
6.05 ROYAL HOUSEHOLD WON 5/6 fv Dnov

3YO'S
5.25 DOMINATING WON 7/4fv EH
7.10 EYNHALLOW 3rd 5/4 fv CH
7.40 ROAD TO DUBAI 2nd 13/8 fv DH
8.45 COOL TEAM UNPL 8/11 fv mdn

4YO+
2.20 YORK; BURGUILLOS 2nd 4/1 CH
3.30 YORK; SUN LOVER 2nd 11/2 CH
3.45 SAND; SHAGIAH WON 11/8 fv CH
4.05 YORK; SAINTED NON RUNNER
5.15 YORK; OPPOSITION (APP)WON 5/2 fv DH
8.05 CHEP; FRANK BRIDGE NON RUNNER
8.35 CHEP; BONJOUR STEVE NON RUNNER
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NO BETs Today
all selections are priced 5/2 AND Lower
Will update tomorrow.

The Qualifiers were.
2yo's
1.30 ROGUE  7/4fv UNPL
1.40 KIT MARLOW 15/8 Fv 3rd
2.00 MUTAKTIF 4/7 Fv 2nd



3YO'S
2.30 HIGHWAY ONE (Mdn Fill) UNPL
3.05 TALAAYEB Listed fills 4/7fv UNPL
4.50 BRIMHAM ROCKS (EH) 11/8 fv UNPL


4YO+

3.20 ESCALATING (Non Runner)

3.55 ARCTIC ANGEL 6/4fv UNPL
5.20 THE MAJOR (amateur) WON 13/8 fv
6.05 LUGANO WON Evens FV
8.10 GULF OF POETS WON 7/2 fv

Review: The 4yo+ came good with 3 wins from 4 races

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Todays Qualifiers.

2YO
YARM 2.10; ONE MINUTE (Enov) (Odds On) 2nd 1/3Fav
HAMIL 6.25; TOUGH REMEDY (Enov) (Odds On) 3rd 8/13 fav

3YO
YARM 3.10: DAIRA PRINCE (EH) WON 2/1fv
HAYD 3.30: MUTARABBY (Mdn) 2nd 2/1 jt fv
HAYD 4.00: RELY ON ME (DH) UNPL 3/1 fv
HAYD 5.00: UAE KING (Mdn) WON 6/5 fv
HAMIL 8.25 INTENSE ROMANCE (DH) UNPL


4YO+
YARM 3.40 ROBBIE ROO ROO (FH) 2ND 4/1 fav
YARM 4.10 HACKNEY ROAD (EH fill) 3rd 11/4
HAYD 4.30 MUTADAFFEQ (CH) 2nd 9/4
HAMIL 5.55 TANGO SKY (FH amat) UNPL
HAMIL 6.55 YENSIR (FH) 2ND 10/3fv


Multiple Bets
Total Stake: £11.50
Pot. Win: £1,572.03

Total Stake: £24.80
Pot.  Win: £75,110.53

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Todays qualifiers
2YO'S
2.00 SALISBURY: INITIATIVE WON 6/5 Fv
2.15 YARMOUTH: TIVOLI   NR (WD)
2.30 SALISBURY: AQUADABRA  3RD 7/2
8.20 LINGA: ELIZABETH BENNET WON 13/8 fv

3YO'S
4.15 YARMOUTH: PERMANENT (Fclassified) UNPL
5.50 LINGA; SPORTING TIMES (Emdn) WON 15/8

3YO+
4.00 SALIS: BILLESDON BESS (CH fill) WON 4/1
7.20 LINGA; AKAVIT (EH) WON 7/4 fv
7.50 LINGA; NAGS WAG (Seller) WON 11/8 fv

Decided to play today - larger fields than yesterday
Total Stake: £12.10
Pot. Win: £4,897.26

Return £127.94
Profit £115.84
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This time of year the 3yo's are very dodgy so i'm not keen on backing them.
2yo maidens are off the radar also.
Ratings are based upon past performance and there isn't enough to feed proper ratings, so it's best to stick with 4yo+ hcps.

Today there are several races where the top ratings confer with my top score system.
It will be interesting to compare the 2yo and 3yo's with the older generation (but not too old)

2yo qualifiers
2.00 AYR; POIGNANT  unpl
2.15 BRIGHTON; HATEYA  unpl
6.00 WINDSOR; KIT MARLOWE NR
6.40 PONTE; MISS DD WON2/1Fv



3yo qualifiers
2.30 AYR; PARADISE COVE (mdn race) WON 4/7 Fv
2.45 BRIGHTON; HAMSTER JAM (fillies E Hcp) unpl
6.30 WINDSOR; THINK FASHION (Maiden race)WON 10/3
7.40 PONTE; BLACK ISLE BOY (C hcp) unpl
8.10 PONTE; TRUE ROMANCE (D hcp) unpl


4YO+ qualifiers
3.00 AYR; HAYMARKET 3rd 2/1 fv
3.30 AYR; GWORN (this one comes 2nd on rating but in best form, and high score, always wary of dual winners.2nd 9/2
3.45 BRIGHTON; MORNINGTON (another dual winner) 3rd 11/8 fv
4.15 BRIGHTON; ZIPEDEEDODAH 2nd 7/4 fv
4.30 AYR; MY NAME IS RIO. This one carries 10-4 (above my limit 0f 10-0) WON 15/8 fv
5.00 AYR; TONTO'S SPIRIT (Lady Amateur race!) WON 4/6 fv
5.15 BRIGHTON; FANFAIR (apprentice race!) always wary of these. unpl 7/2fv
7.00 WINDSOR; BIOTIC 2nd 5/2 fv
8.40 PONTE; CASTLEREA TESS unpl

Summary:
The 2yo's had one win from three races Profit/Loss Nil.
3yo's had two winners from five races. All hcp races failed, but maiden races both won. Profit/Loss +1
4yo+ Seven favs of the nine races and just Two winners. Profit/ Loss - 6.5

Monday not a good day, low grade tracks and low number of runners per race have to be taken into account.














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AW Weds 25th March

25 Mar 15 23:24
Three meetings today.
Top Scores (y) Next Best (nb)

Y    5    LINGA    Triple Dip 144
.        LINGA   
Y    6    LINGA    Henry Grace 42 b
nb    5+    LINGA    Skidby Mill 21 (WON)
.        LINGA   
Y    5    LINGA    Callac 21
.        LINGA   
nb    4    LINGA    Swift Blade 39 h
Y    5+    LINGA    Thecornishcowboy 11 t
.        LINGA   
nb    5+    LINGA    Dishy Guru 32 b
Y    6    LINGA    Pharoh Jake 21
.        LINGA   
Y    7    LINGA    Beggers Luck 29
nb    5    LINGA    Black Truffle 7 v
.           
Y    5    SOUTH    Tijan 147 h
nb    2+    SOUTH    Legal Art 27
.        SOUTH   
NB    5    SOUTH    Blazeofenchantment 14 v
y    6+    SOUTH    Tartan Trip 20 v
nb    5+    SOUTH    Pearl Nation 18 h (WON)
Y    8    SOUTH    Two Moons 14
.        SOUTH   
Y    6    SOUTH    Lucky Mark 27 p
NB    5    SOUTH    Coiste Bodhar 22 b
.        SOUTH   
Y    8    SOUTH    What Asham 8 (WON)
.        SOUTH   
Y    7    SOUTH    Light The City 5J
.           
co    5    KEMPA    Chevise 35 b
co    5    KEMPA    Baltic Prince 15
coy    5+    KEMPA    Major Muscari 27 p
.        KEMPA   
Y    4    KEMPA    Clampdown 12 (WON)
.        KEMPA   
NB    4    KEMPA    Mrs Warren 153
Y    6    KEMPA    Elusive Ellen 32 t (WON)
.        KEMPA   
NB    2++    KEMPA    Honourable Action 13
Y    4    KEMPA    Ya Hade Ye Delil 182
.        KEMPA   
NB    4+    KEMPA    City Of Angkor Wat 7 p (WON)
Y    5+    KEMPA    Biotic 169
.        KEMPA   
Y    4    KEMPA    Tears Of The Sun 139


Potential Lays
LINGA 4.00    Swift Blade 39 h
LINGA 4.00    Estibdaad 11 t

SOUTH 3.50    Meshardal 301

KEMPA 7.45    Bountybeamadam 182 p
KEMPA 7.45    Ocean Legend 2
KEMPA 8.15    Mambo Rhythm 179 v

Experimental
           
2.50 South; Blazeofenchantment
3.30 Linga: Valentine Mist
4.00 Linga: Comedy House
4.30 Linga: Dishy Guru
5.00 Linga: Teenager (WON)
5.45 Kempa: Chevise
6.15 Kempa: Hold Firm

Experimental 2
2.20 South: Tijan
3.00 Linga: Henry Grace
3.20 South: Two Moors
4.20 South: What Asham
4.50 South: Light The City

Reserves.
3.30 Linga Callal
5.00 Linga Beggars Luck
8.15 Kempa Tears Of The Sun.

My Best Today
2.20 Tijan
2.50 Tartan Trip
3.20 Two Moons
3.30 Callac
4.20 What Asham
4.50 Light The City
5.00 Beggars Luck

UPDATE:
Rubbish today on the scores.
Kempton is usually my worst AW track for winners but was the besttoday.
Two Experiments failed miserably. (They were to do with Daily Mirror tipsters)
All Lays beaten (2 NR's)


With time to go through and compare past results today (Track,grade,distance) it paid dividends.
I have to do the full works and most of it is on the hoof (between races)
Take the maidens - past results of similar races Feb-April months showed high percentage won by FTO runners or Long Break.
Backed all three winners of maidens, which is unusual as rarely bother with those races.








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AW Thursday Feb 19th

19 Feb 15 19:25
The system is expanding and can be looked at various ways.

Going through Chelmsford card last night.
comparing the RPR & Top speed best figures in the races - similarly with past results
Two horses came out with strong chances based upon age of race, form, grade and track.

Plaisir and Winter Queen

5.10
Further research with Plaisir presented doubts when looking at Botti's record with maiden fillies that had been placed 2nd.
More doubts when looking at claimer jockeys in such races (Maiden fillies). In her races so far she looks like not having the final burst to win (one paced near finish).

Plaisir Lay bet

5.40
Winter Queen has already won two races. So far this year I make it 20 horses (14 Races) that have won two successive races in 3yo hcps - and only 3 have won. All three won at Kempton.
Charlie Appleby put a 3lb claimer on Winter Queen, when 2nd LTO, and today puts up 7lb claimer.
The  record with claimers relating to the 20 horses is one win from five rides (Alistair Rawlinson 5lb).
That win was on Godolphin runner (Suroor).
This race is the fourth race this year where there was a runner with two successive wins AND WHEN top RPR matches with Top speed - two won and Coursing was beaten yesterday (2nd).

Winter Queen No bet

6.1O
Third Strike looking to achieve a third win on the trot.
He would be the first this year in his AGE group (4yo) and grade.
It appears on past results in such circumstances that a Course win is essential (Difficult with this new track)

lay bet

6.40
The versatile Putin catches the eye in this race.
Surely the up in grade (F to E) and distance (8f to 6f) will test this today.
Eight 7yo's this year have failed to repeat a win with a penalty (and neither has Putin won with the penalty)

Lay bet

7.10
4yo's with penalty appear have great difficulty to win above E grade in hcps so this D grade race might be against Vosne Romanee
Also not much going for dual winner Stonecutter.

UPDATE
OK there's usually one to spoil the party (Third Strike) but all the horses mentioned were either Top Score or next best (Vosne Romnanee).
GLEIGHS normally has at least one Top Score winner and was hoping it would be in last two races (Miniskirt or Joints Youm Jamil/ Ever Yours

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