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FLAT RACING

AW Thursday Feb 19th

19 Feb 15 19:25
The system is expanding and can be looked at various ways.

Going through Chelmsford card last night.
comparing the RPR & Top speed best figures in the races - similarly with past results
Two horses came out with strong chances based upon age of race, form, grade and track.

Plaisir and Winter Queen

5.10
Further research with Plaisir presented doubts when looking at Botti's record with maiden fillies that had been placed 2nd.
More doubts when looking at claimer jockeys in such races (Maiden fillies). In her races so far she looks like not having the final burst to win (one paced near finish).

Plaisir Lay bet

5.40
Winter Queen has already won two races. So far this year I make it 20 horses (14 Races) that have won two successive races in 3yo hcps - and only 3 have won. All three won at Kempton.
Charlie Appleby put a 3lb claimer on Winter Queen, when 2nd LTO, and today puts up 7lb claimer.
The  record with claimers relating to the 20 horses is one win from five rides (Alistair Rawlinson 5lb).
That win was on Godolphin runner (Suroor).
This race is the fourth race this year where there was a runner with two successive wins AND WHEN top RPR matches with Top speed - two won and Coursing was beaten yesterday (2nd).

Winter Queen No bet

6.1O
Third Strike looking to achieve a third win on the trot.
He would be the first this year in his AGE group (4yo) and grade.
It appears on past results in such circumstances that a Course win is essential (Difficult with this new track)

lay bet

6.40
The versatile Putin catches the eye in this race.
Surely the up in grade (F to E) and distance (8f to 6f) will test this today.
Eight 7yo's this year have failed to repeat a win with a penalty (and neither has Putin won with the penalty)

Lay bet

7.10
4yo's with penalty appear have great difficulty to win above E grade in hcps so this D grade race might be against Vosne Romanee
Also not much going for dual winner Stonecutter.

UPDATE
OK there's usually one to spoil the party (Third Strike) but all the horses mentioned were either Top Score or next best (Vosne Romnanee).
GLEIGHS normally has at least one Top Score winner and was hoping it would be in last two races (Miniskirt or Joints Youm Jamil/ Ever Yours

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