orioles

NYJ @ NE Patriots

I like New England here.

Bill Belichick is the arch-tactician and his ability to identify, isolate and take advantage of the opposition's weaknesses seems to move up a gear from here on in, particularly in key games and he can rely on his players to implement the plan.

Brady seems to have his game in good order; partly because of the protection he has been getting lately, and partly because the personnel around him who were exposed due to lack of experience have begun to find their feet. It is the sheer versatility of the Pats' O these days that will challenge the Jets very tough defense in ways it perhaps hasn't been so far. The blitzing and shut down corners won't have the same impact with Brady's quick release (this means people can get downfield quickly without blocking assignments) and his ability to spread the love. Belichick will try to draw off Revis and Cromartie and attack the Jets up the middle and I like Danny Woodhead catching out of the backfield to score. New England can change it up with BenJarvus Green-Ellis as a pure runner, but it's a tough assignment.

The Jets have the personnel, save for one key component;Sanchez just isn't reliable enough. Last time out a barely complete Bengals D gave him all sorts of problems as he failed to read and pick up unusual formations and looked flustered and hurried. His delivery was horrible. the running game shouldn't be too much of a threat - in a way, taking a crack at the Pats inexperienced secondary may just be too attractive.

I go back to Belichick though. Give him 11 days to prepare a gameplan and giving just 3.5 points at home in December and I don't care how accomplished the opposition defense is.

Pick: NE -3.5 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD none
Pick: Anytime TD Danny Woodhead 6/4, Santonio Holmes 6/5 (1pt each)

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Despite the battering I’ve just taken, I’m going back to the sacks market on this game!

The Steelers pass rush should cause Flacco problems tonight, especially with Michael Oher nicked up and with a shut down run D, Flacco is going to need to air it out. Recently, the Ravens have been giving up sacks (13 in the past four weeks) and the Steelers are suddenly beginning to sack the opposition QB on a regular basis. On the obverse of this, the Steelers are having problems with their O line and Big Ben is obviously going to be limited with his injured foot. Both teams are going to be bringing it on prime time TV and I see a torrid night for QBs ahead.
   
In terms of the game result, the Ravens have struggled to score of late and, despite Pittsburgh’s slightly rocky secondary, I don’t see them marching down the field too often tonight. The Baltimore D isn't quite as solid on the ground and with Ben injured, Rashard Mendenhall should see the rock a lot; if that aspect of the Pittsburgh O starts rolling, Roethlisberger can attack the Ravens vertically as he has before. I make the Steelers a strong bet with the points.

Pick: Pittsburgh +3 (3*)

Pick: Total Match Sacks Buy @ 4.9 (0.5/tick)

Oakland @ San Diego

My instinct says that laying 13 points is too much, even though the bolts are rolling and Oakland have been heavily outscored recently. San Diego are badly banged up downfield and, even with Gates looking like he’s coming back, Floyd is limping around (if he plays) and Rivers is looking at guys like Naanee to get it done. He’s no slouch, but he’s no Vincent Jackson. Even with Nnamdi Asomugha and Tyvon Branch injured in the Raiders’ secondary, I’m nervous about Rivers simply running out of personnel deep. That's one of the reasons I have a feeling Tolbert may have a big game tonight; he has stepped up mightily and the O line is clearing out lanes nicely – I like him to score.

An interesting angle here is my good old sacks supremacy spread. In their last four games, the San Diego D has managed 8 sacks, 6 interceptions and a pair of defensive TDs and may just go to town tonight with Campbell under center for the Raiders: he doesn’t react well to pressure and the 3-4 D in Pittsburgh gave the Oakland O line fits, so I can see Cambpell getting a rough ride. Against that we have the Chargers’ O line that has been solid and Rivers’ speedy release that should see the Raiders capable pass rush struggling to get home.

San Diego may blow the doors off here, but I’m going to err on the side of caution after the Titans embarrassment in the early game, and hope for a nice payout on the spread.

Pick: ATS No bet

Pick: 1st TD Tolbert 5/1 (1pt)
Pick: Sacks Supremacy: San Diego/Oakland Buy @ 0.8 (0.5pt/tick)

Someone contacted me (yes, really!) about the whole points recommendation thing. It’s my bad; for the ATS picks, the points indicate the strength of bet from 0-5. The ATS picks are the ‘main’ bet.

All other picks, then the points are bankroll points. I’ve altered the way I rate the picks. Sorry about that.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Simple - if Collins goes for the Titans, then lay the points, if he doesn’t and Rusty Smith is under centre, take the Jags and points. I’m getting nothing on the late injury reports, so I’ll assume Collins goes.

Collins can at least get it done and involve Johnson in the game (Rusty Smith managed to remove his own ace from the game) and the threat of guys like Moss and Washington downfield, the Titans will change it up as required, particularly as the Jags’ pass rush/defense is very poor. They’ve defended the run well recently, but Tennessee must get the run going first, and Johnson will see the ball a lot early.

The QB issue is the biggest concern because the Titans are solid on D and they should be able to control this side of the ball and pressure Garrard whom they knocked out last time. All that said, Maurice Jones-Drew has been strong recently and is worth a touch for 1st TD.

Give the points.

Pick: Tennessee -3 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Maurice Jones-Drew 5/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Randy Moss  13/8 (1pt)

Texans @ Eagles

Vick put up the numbers last week (29/44/333 yards, 2 TDs, and a pick) but there were flashes of why I had reservations about Vick: it's not just a question of moving him to his right, to successfully defend him, he needs to be restricted and pressured in the pocket. If you can bring pressure, but leave men downfield, then he forces plays and makes a cobblers of his reads, breaking up the rhythm of the offense and allowing it to stall - and that happened particularly in the redzone last week. I still think the Bears are a bust, but kudos to their front seven for getting it done.

Houston however, are going to struggle to bring that pressure, and they don't have the speed to move Vick around, that's a fatal combination that will expose their now famously weak secondary to Vick on the ground and through the air. Mike likes a big room, so if the Eagles get down near the goal-line early, he'll try to take it in; I got him at 18/1 a couple of weeks ago and he's clipped into 11s, but it's still worth a sniff.

DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant and maybe even Brent Celek should go to town tonight, picking apart a secondary that has haemorrhaged yards and points (we can ignore the Rusty Titans) and the likelihood is that Kareem Jackson and Glover Quin will get owned. The Texans can defend the run, but look for McCoy catching out of the backfield on a variety of screens to keep the chains moving

On the Texans' offense, Andre Johnson is bound to want to get it done on national TV after his Mike Tyson bit, and at Evens he must be worth a couple of quid to score. With Asante Samuel back, the Eagles secondary will be more solid as Trevard Lindley was lost for much of the Chicago game, so while Johnson will score, Philadelphia should be able to limit the damage, especially as their pass rush is strong enough to ensure Schaub won't have a comfortable night.

The big beast on that side of the ball for the Oilers' though, is Arian Foster. Foster has been running all over defenses this year and combines that with an ability to operate as a very effective receiver. The Eagles had been tough against the run, but Forte got them for 117yds last week and guys like Stewart Bradley and Antonio Dixon need to step up to try and bottle up Foster, because if he gets to the second level, he can go for big yardage.

All in all, I'm going to take the Eagles again because although the Texans have the weapons, I believe the way these teams match up and the fact that the Texans are coming into a bear-pit on a short week makes Philadelphia a strong bet.

Pick: Philadelphia -8 (4pts)

Pick: 1st TD Michael Vick 11/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson Evens (2pts)

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Well, a weekend in Vegas stag party of sport (flicking between football and kicking the Aussies around the Gabba at 3am ... really?) ends with someone finding a turd in the punch bowl. And there it is, floating among the fruit, the 49ers at the Cards. Horrible.

The complete absence of quarterbacking means that, if you must take an interest, go with the 49ers, simply because they have the edge with skill players who can match up better. Arizona is nice out wide, but Anderson has to get it there and he couldn't hit a wide open barn door from a yard out. Also, although inconsistent, SF does have a pass rush to speak of. The 49ers are tough against the run, but Wells and Hightower are broken and below par respectively, so it doesn't really matter.

Frank Gore should be the key to this game; he's put up good numbers against the Cardinals before and should do so tonight against the league's 29th ranked run defense. If Smith needs to change it up, he can do it against a passing defense that is almost as awful as the run D (Arizona have given up the most yards through the air in the NFL in their last 3) again though, he'll need to get it there - Smith does at least have the arm for it.

These teams are unpredictable and home dogs on MNF are traditionally bankroll killers, so keep stakes to an absolute minimum.

Pick: SF -2 (1pt)

Pick: Anytime TD SF Defense 4/1 (1pt)

San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts

A brutal Sunday so far, but that's football.

I like the bolts here: usually, with Peyton Manning giving just 2 points at home, I'd leap on it, but I get the feeling that even 18 is beginning to sag under the weight of injuries. Collie is out again, Addai looks as though he'll follow and Reggie Wayne is limping around. Bizarrely, Garcon is looking increasingly out of sync, and while Tamme and Blair White are stepping up, there's a sense that offensive luck is beginning to run out. The San Diego pass rush has been brutal and their D is all-round solid, so this may be an improvisation too far for the Colts.

The Chargers have injury problems too, but crucially Vincent Jackson has returned after contract/drugs hiatus and the word is that he has been tearing up trees in practise. He'll see the ball a lot. San Diego also has Tolbert in the backfield and I like how he's taken advantage of Ryan Mathews going down. With the Indy D line still nicked up, and giving up yardage to RBs, I'll look for him to get a lot of touches today too, if only to follow the traditional wisdom of keeping Manning off the field. The bolts' O line protects Rivers well and, even under pressure, he gets the ball out quickly and is running into his usual mid-late season, devastating form.

All in all, I think it spells trouble for Indianapolis, even at home, and I'll take the points and see if I can't salvage something from a very frustrating evening.

Pick: San Diego +2 (3pts)

Pick: 1st TD Mike Tolbert 13/2 (1pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson 6/5 (1pt)

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The coach killers take on the 18-1 home trigger man. This should be a great game; two teams who are playing well and look destined to be significant players down the stretch.

I know I harp on about this (and it’s hardly a startling insight!) but I like to see strength on both sides of the ball – it doesn’t have to be overwhelming, but there must be balance. In this respect, the Packers have the clear edge in this matchup.

When Finley went down, I feared for the Pack. He was the x-factor on the offense that somehow seemed to make it tick, even so early in his career, but Rodgers has got Green Bay rolling as Greg Jennings, , James Jones and latterly Donald Driver have proved their worth.

Getting Rodgers as a dog, even in the Georgia Dome, is an attractive proposition. The Falcons’ secondary is beatable and if they’re hoping to stop Green Bay by getting to Rodgers, you should bear in mind that the Pack’s O line has only given up 6 sacks in the last three and conversely, the Atlanta pass rush has got home only three times in their last three. Look for Rodgers to attack Grimes in the Atlanta secondary and Jennings to score as he has recovered from a slow start to be the go to receiver in this offense.

Ryan is 18-1 at home, it must be the most quoted QB stat of the week, but he’s matching up on a Green Bay defense that will test his nerve and decision-making under pressure. Over that recent three game spell, the Packer D has yielded 10 points to the opposition. Total. That’s against the Jets, the Cowboys and the Vikes – that’s some line of form. Their corners are dominant (look for the Tramon Williams/Roddy White battle) and in Clay Matthews they have the league leader in sacks.

Atlanta have protected Ryan nicely though and any team that boasts Roddy White out wide and Tony Gonzalez over the middle, along with a more than capable supporting cast downfield has a puncher’s chance, but they really need to establish the run and unfortunately that seems unlikely as the Atlanta run game has been sketchy and I don’t see Turner dominating B.J. Raji , Frank Zombo and Clay Matthews.

The Pack are more solid all round and they should have enough to break the Ryan home magic.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 (3pts)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD James Jones 2/1 (0.5pt)


Philadelphia @ Chicago

I don’t buy Chicago (still!) and I have the Eagles at better than a touchdown over the Bears, so giving anything less than that is a strong bet.

I mentioned this to a pal of mine in the US and he started waxing lyrical about last week’s defensive performance by the Giants and the speed of the Bears’ D and cautioned against going too big on Philadelphia, “Just force the guy to go right and it’s over”. However, while Vick didn’t go off like he did two weeks ago, and he even showed glimpses of the old problem that made me express the view that the Eagles would be better concentrating on Kolb (too many broken plays that lead to turnovers and lost yards as he tries to make plays) Vick wasn’t helped by all the drops, and if Avant had caught a pass I would have snagged in the endzone, it might have played out very differently.

Peppers et al will come after Vick though, and try to move him about, but the defense also needs to get contain out wide and to bring consistent pressure, and to do that they’ll have to send extra bodies. That’s fine if your secondary is secure enough to spare the cover – but I don’t see that depth when I look at Chicago. Tillman and Jennings can be beaten deep (to be fair, Jackson would beat anyone deep) so Chicago will be forced into this quandary of exposing the corners over the top; or leaving their safeties in coverage and risk Vick getting free. Chicago tend to leave the safeties deep, but Vick is so potent that the Bears’ hand may be forced.

Now the other aspect that makes the Eagles the bet for me: Mike Martz has surprised everyone by discovering the run all of a sudden, but Philadelphia are effective at stopping the run. They also bring a lot of pressure, which means Cutler will need to make quick decisions, moving around in the pocket, with a line in front of him that doesn’t always protect him too well - although it has improved somewhat lately – and I expect him to throw picks today. I’d like Asante Samuel to be on the field, but even without him, I take the Eagles’ D to dominate.

My worries? Well, Chicago do have the talent out wide, and Hester on special teams is a nightmare. So if the defense can restrict Vick and force him back into his old habits, the Bears have a shot, but they'll need to protect Cutler.

The Bears keep managing to stagger over the line, but that ends today.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (4pts)

Pick: 1st TD Vick 18/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Maclin 11/10 (1pt)

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets

Meh, Bengals. They've hurt me all season with their horrible play. Teams that don't bother some weeks murder you ATS, because the spreads get out of whack and I keep getting the wrong side of it.

However, there's no getting away from it - the Bengals are crap. Simple. What NFL team with any self-respect lays down in front of the Bills? They gave up 35 points in the second half last week without managing a score and if that form carries over, the Jets will murder them.

The Bengals have no pass rush, are struggling to put out a D with healthy bodies on it as Mark Sanchez is beginning to really find his feet under centre. He profited against the Texans' shaky secondary, so goodness only knows what he'll do against a Cincinnati D who have Roy Williams, Antwan Odom, Chris Crocker, Tank Johnson, Frostee Rucker, Brandon Ghee, Johnathan Joseph and Rico Murray either out, or injured.

On the other side of the rock for the Bengals are TO and Ochocinco - the former called Revis "average" and the latter will have Cromartie sitting on him all game. The Jets stuff the run, so Benson will struggle mightily to get anything going on the ground and, to cap it all, Carson Palmer is going backwards and throwing too many picks. The Jets are going to come after him and it does not bode well.

This should be a pounding by the Jets, who have plenty of weapons wide out and LT in the backfield (Ryan may not trust Greene with a greasy ball) to mix it up to terrorise the battered, hapless Bengals' defense.

Ten points is a lot to give and, as I said, the Bengals have hurt me this season, so I'm going to take a small interest. Check the weather too, that might be the only thing restricting the Jets, but it's a valid factor at the Meadowlands.

Pick: NY Jets -10 (2pts)

Pick: Anytime TD Jets Defense 5/2 (1pt)

New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions

Detroit have been something of a revelation this year; in technical coaching terms they have become Scrappy Do instead of Shaggy ripped on dope. If Stafford were fit (and that may never happen, poor guy) and Best wasn’t at 30% with turf toe, this would be a dangerous game for the Pats. As it is, I expect to watch New England chow down on their traditional Thanksgiving lion dinner.

Suddenly, New England has shown a commitment to the run, with Brady attempting only 25 passes last week and rolling with BenJarvus Green-Ellis who got 21 touches and Danny Woodhead changing it up catching out of the backfield. The Lions’D has struggled to maintain its pass rush (Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril and Corey Williams are banged up)and ranks 22nd overall on defense and 13th and 26th against the pass and run respectively in yardage, so I would expect Belichick to set up the pass after getting the run going and allow Brady to attack CBs Alphonso Smith and Chris Houston who can over-commit in coverage. Branch is getting healthy and is clearly making Brady more comfortable with his reliability; he got the most looks last week.

If we assume that Best is going to be very limited, if he plays at all, everything rests on the Hill/Johnson/Burleson combination. The Lions have had no success on the ground, but if Hill can get it to his two receivers, they can make a game of it against a soft Patriots’ secondary. The problem is that Belichick specialises in shutting down individual threats and Calvin Johnson will draw a lot of coverage. Johnson is much bigger than the Pats’ DBs, so that doesn’t rule him out and it may give Burleson and Pettigrew some room to work, as the Lions are likely to fall behind and Hill will have to pass a lot to keep them competitive, but I doubt it will be enough.

I’ll give less than a TD.

Pick: New England -6.5 (3pts)

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Nate Burleson 7/4 (1pt)

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

Wow. The Cowboys have won two in a row. So the guy next to Wade Phillips had the answers all the time? Well, he won’t today - Brees is back, baby.

The problem for the Cowboys is that secondary, where a surging Brees is going to find enough holes to put up big numbers. Colston has had a couple of massive games and the Dallas zone coverage matching him up on the weak safeties and corners should see him follow Brees in with a big game. Moore and Meachem will similarly profit. Chris Ivory is a nice option on the ground and Reggie Bush may be back. I like all the options.

That’s not to say Dallas are without hope in this game; Kitna (whom I picked up in fantasy, then threw away as he started to produce – it’s been that kind of year) has found some real rhythm and Dez Bryant has become a favourite redzone target. Austin is also capable out wide, but they may not see the ball enough in favourable match ups tonight.  On the ground, Felix Jones was finally showing signs of life, only to go down with a gimpy hip and the Saints defend the run stoutly anyway. That makes the offense too one-dimensional to succeed.

This plays to one of the less trumpeted elements of the New Orleans’ game; their defense. They gave up yards last week, but it was garbage time O and the Saints know that Thanksgiving is the time to really step up, and I expect Greg Williams and his pass rush to come after Kitna, who does not react well and makes poor decisions under pressure.

The Saints just have too much on either side of the ball, and I like them a lot here.

Pick: New Orleans -3.5 (4pts)

Pick: 1st TD Colston 9/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Robert Meachem 7/4 (1pt)