orioles

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The coach killers take on the 18-1 home trigger man. This should be a great game; two teams who are playing well and look destined to be significant players down the stretch.

I know I harp on about this (and it’s hardly a startling insight!) but I like to see strength on both sides of the ball – it doesn’t have to be overwhelming, but there must be balance. In this respect, the Packers have the clear edge in this matchup.

When Finley went down, I feared for the Pack. He was the x-factor on the offense that somehow seemed to make it tick, even so early in his career, but Rodgers has got Green Bay rolling as Greg Jennings, , James Jones and latterly Donald Driver have proved their worth.

Getting Rodgers as a dog, even in the Georgia Dome, is an attractive proposition. The Falcons’ secondary is beatable and if they’re hoping to stop Green Bay by getting to Rodgers, you should bear in mind that the Pack’s O line has only given up 6 sacks in the last three and conversely, the Atlanta pass rush has got home only three times in their last three. Look for Rodgers to attack Grimes in the Atlanta secondary and Jennings to score as he has recovered from a slow start to be the go to receiver in this offense.

Ryan is 18-1 at home, it must be the most quoted QB stat of the week, but he’s matching up on a Green Bay defense that will test his nerve and decision-making under pressure. Over that recent three game spell, the Packer D has yielded 10 points to the opposition. Total. That’s against the Jets, the Cowboys and the Vikes – that’s some line of form. Their corners are dominant (look for the Tramon Williams/Roddy White battle) and in Clay Matthews they have the league leader in sacks.

Atlanta have protected Ryan nicely though and any team that boasts Roddy White out wide and Tony Gonzalez over the middle, along with a more than capable supporting cast downfield has a puncher’s chance, but they really need to establish the run and unfortunately that seems unlikely as the Atlanta run game has been sketchy and I don’t see Turner dominating B.J. Raji , Frank Zombo and Clay Matthews.

The Pack are more solid all round and they should have enough to break the Ryan home magic.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 (3pts)

Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD James Jones 2/1 (0.5pt)


Philadelphia @ Chicago

I don’t buy Chicago (still!) and I have the Eagles at better than a touchdown over the Bears, so giving anything less than that is a strong bet.

I mentioned this to a pal of mine in the US and he started waxing lyrical about last week’s defensive performance by the Giants and the speed of the Bears’ D and cautioned against going too big on Philadelphia, “Just force the guy to go right and it’s over”. However, while Vick didn’t go off like he did two weeks ago, and he even showed glimpses of the old problem that made me express the view that the Eagles would be better concentrating on Kolb (too many broken plays that lead to turnovers and lost yards as he tries to make plays) Vick wasn’t helped by all the drops, and if Avant had caught a pass I would have snagged in the endzone, it might have played out very differently.

Peppers et al will come after Vick though, and try to move him about, but the defense also needs to get contain out wide and to bring consistent pressure, and to do that they’ll have to send extra bodies. That’s fine if your secondary is secure enough to spare the cover – but I don’t see that depth when I look at Chicago. Tillman and Jennings can be beaten deep (to be fair, Jackson would beat anyone deep) so Chicago will be forced into this quandary of exposing the corners over the top; or leaving their safeties in coverage and risk Vick getting free. Chicago tend to leave the safeties deep, but Vick is so potent that the Bears’ hand may be forced.

Now the other aspect that makes the Eagles the bet for me: Mike Martz has surprised everyone by discovering the run all of a sudden, but Philadelphia are effective at stopping the run. They also bring a lot of pressure, which means Cutler will need to make quick decisions, moving around in the pocket, with a line in front of him that doesn’t always protect him too well - although it has improved somewhat lately – and I expect him to throw picks today. I’d like Asante Samuel to be on the field, but even without him, I take the Eagles’ D to dominate.

My worries? Well, Chicago do have the talent out wide, and Hester on special teams is a nightmare. So if the defense can restrict Vick and force him back into his old habits, the Bears have a shot, but they'll need to protect Cutler.

The Bears keep managing to stagger over the line, but that ends today.

Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (4pts)

Pick: 1st TD Vick 18/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Maclin 11/10 (1pt)