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New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions

Detroit have been something of a revelation this year; in technical coaching terms they have become Scrappy Do instead of Shaggy ripped on dope. If Stafford were fit (and that may never happen, poor guy) and Best wasn’t at 30% with turf toe, this would be a dangerous game for the Pats. As it is, I expect to watch New England chow down on their traditional Thanksgiving lion dinner.

Suddenly, New England has shown a commitment to the run, with Brady attempting only 25 passes last week and rolling with BenJarvus Green-Ellis who got 21 touches and Danny Woodhead changing it up catching out of the backfield. The Lions’D has struggled to maintain its pass rush (Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril and Corey Williams are banged up)and ranks 22nd overall on defense and 13th and 26th against the pass and run respectively in yardage, so I would expect Belichick to set up the pass after getting the run going and allow Brady to attack CBs Alphonso Smith and Chris Houston who can over-commit in coverage. Branch is getting healthy and is clearly making Brady more comfortable with his reliability; he got the most looks last week.

If we assume that Best is going to be very limited, if he plays at all, everything rests on the Hill/Johnson/Burleson combination. The Lions have had no success on the ground, but if Hill can get it to his two receivers, they can make a game of it against a soft Patriots’ secondary. The problem is that Belichick specialises in shutting down individual threats and Calvin Johnson will draw a lot of coverage. Johnson is much bigger than the Pats’ DBs, so that doesn’t rule him out and it may give Burleson and Pettigrew some room to work, as the Lions are likely to fall behind and Hill will have to pass a lot to keep them competitive, but I doubt it will be enough.

I’ll give less than a TD.

Pick: New England -6.5 (3pts)

Pick: 1st TD Rob Gronkowski 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Nate Burleson 7/4 (1pt)

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

Wow. The Cowboys have won two in a row. So the guy next to Wade Phillips had the answers all the time? Well, he won’t today - Brees is back, baby.

The problem for the Cowboys is that secondary, where a surging Brees is going to find enough holes to put up big numbers. Colston has had a couple of massive games and the Dallas zone coverage matching him up on the weak safeties and corners should see him follow Brees in with a big game. Moore and Meachem will similarly profit. Chris Ivory is a nice option on the ground and Reggie Bush may be back. I like all the options.

That’s not to say Dallas are without hope in this game; Kitna (whom I picked up in fantasy, then threw away as he started to produce – it’s been that kind of year) has found some real rhythm and Dez Bryant has become a favourite redzone target. Austin is also capable out wide, but they may not see the ball enough in favourable match ups tonight.  On the ground, Felix Jones was finally showing signs of life, only to go down with a gimpy hip and the Saints defend the run stoutly anyway. That makes the offense too one-dimensional to succeed.

This plays to one of the less trumpeted elements of the New Orleans’ game; their defense. They gave up yards last week, but it was garbage time O and the Saints know that Thanksgiving is the time to really step up, and I expect Greg Williams and his pass rush to come after Kitna, who does not react well and makes poor decisions under pressure.

The Saints just have too much on either side of the ball, and I like them a lot here.

Pick: New Orleans -3.5 (4pts)

Pick: 1st TD Colston 9/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Robert Meachem 7/4 (1pt)