orioles

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Sky Sports 4/HD4 - Sunday 1am

The impregnable Georgia Dome welcomes the Pack ... and I expect the Pack to come away with the win.

This will be a duel between the two QBs. Although both defenses boast very capable pass rushers – John Abraham for Atlanta and Clay Matthews for Green Bay – Rodgers and Ryan will need to test the respective secondary they face.

Green Bay will have to worry about Michael Turner, because if he gets rolling, Atlanta could be as unstoppable as the human bowling ball himself. The Pack will put eight in the box to stop the run first, and they’re perfectly capable of doing it with B.J. Raji really hitting his straps. Again, this is a team that has tightened up as the season reaches its climax, and the Packers have been strong against the run recently.

The problem for Atlanta is that if Turner isn’t moving the chains, they have to fall back on the pass, which means that the Green Bay corners, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams come into play – and that’s exactly how the Packers would want it, because I’m sure they feel confident their secondary can handle the Atlanta wide receivers, even ones as talented as Roddy White. If Ryan starts dropping deep, that also exposes him to the Packers' pass rush as they have more time to get home.

It would be wrong to disrespect the Atlanta defense. Their season numbers aren't great, but they have also developed nicely lately and players like Grimes, who attracted attention from the opposition because he was the soft underbelly of the Falcons’ defense, are now solid.

But, Atlanta are facing Aaron Rodgers, and if anyone can find a way, it’s him. He has a talented receiving corps and, while I took Jennings last week and he was blanked (he dropped too many passes for some reason) I’ll take him to score again and try and recoup some of that money. There are so many weapons for Rodgers that Green Bay is able to spread out the Atlanta defense and then begin to dismantle it. It would be nice if Starks could reproduce last week’s performance, but the Falcons are stronger (and healthier) than the Eagles and, while he’ll be a valuable change up, I’m not expecting the same impact.

As in the first game tonight, look for the Tight Ends on both teams to have a significant role; if Turner doesn’t get it going for Atlanta, Gonzalez will become the outlet to keep the offense moving. Donald Lee and Tom Crabtree, although often on blocking assignments, have become more active offensively too, both scoring, and remember Andrew Quarless is the starter.

I’ll take the point and a half on offer and watch what should be a very interesting duel on the field and on the sidelines.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +1.5 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Roddy White 8/1 (0.5pt)
Anytime TD: Greg Jennings Evens (2pts)


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sky Sports 4/HD4 - Saturday 9.30pm

This weekend is marked out by some great grudge matches, but none will be bigger than this. In the good old days, this would have been a guaranteed bloodbath, as it is it should be a great, hard-hitting football game.

The past eight Baltimore Pittsburgh games have been decided by; 3, 3, 3, 3, 9, 4, 3, 6 points respectively.

I believe the key to this game is which team protects its QB best.

James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley (20.5 sacks between them) will attack Flacco in a series of very aggressive blitz packages - it's no accident that the Steelers led the league with 48 sacks - and unless Little Joe can stay upright and pick up the blitz, Baltimore will struggle. Worryingly, the Ravens have given up 27 sacks in the past eight games.

Big Ben on the other hand, has a marauding Terrell Suggs coming off the edge, and Haloti Ngata bulldozing the middle of the line, shrinking the pocket. Added to this, the Steeler offensive line is allowing three sacks a game in their last five.

The Ravens must not only resist the pass rush, the other aspects of the offense must click - they must establish the run, and that's going to be difficult against a Steelers' front seven that is  tough against the run, ably supported by Troy Polamalu. Pittsburgh ranks first against the run (and twelfth against the pass) and Ray Rice has managed only 52 total yards against Pittsburgh, getting just 11 touches in their last meeting.

The same is true of Pittsburgh of course, the run will be important, but the Steelers are happier letting Roethlisberger extend plays to find people downfield. Flacco is less comfortable outside the pocket. However, look for deep strikes early, as offensive coaches look to unbalance the defenses.

I like Mike Wallace tonight. Ben Roethlisberger loves him downfield and there's no doubt that a secondary including Josh Wilson and Chris Carr can be beaten deep. Wallace's speed and size make him a constant threat and he'll get lots of looks.

Because you can't run on the Steelers, you have to throw the ball, and the Baltimore offense has had modest success against Pittsburgh (Flacco went 17-of-33 for 266 yards and a touchdown last time) and the received wisdom is that the Steelers' secondary can be thrown on, but they've tightened up down the stretch and the Ravens' receivers may find it difficult to get open. Ike Taylor will match up on Boldin and that has Mason matching up on Bryant McFadden, who's carrying an injury - as Flacco's favourite target, Mason might make a play or two.

Flacco will need to look for hot routes from his receivers and quick releases, so also look for Todd Heap to figure as Flacco's options are limited. On the other side, Heath Miller is unlikely to get as many looks, making the Heap/Miller supremacy spread attractive.

Another interesting supremacy spread is E Sanders/TJ Houshmanzadeh Recieving Yards. With Mike Wallace stretching the field vertically, the Ravens will need to keep a safety deep, creating the ideal space for a quick slot receiver like Sanders. He got Baltimore for 49 yards earlier in the season, but his role has developed and increased since then and I like the matchup. T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the other hand, may find it difficult to get separation against what should be a physical Steelers' secondary.

I think the Steelers win this; I prefer Ben Roethlisberger with the hammer down and think the Ravens' secondary is slightly more vulnerable.

This should be close, but I actually quite like Pittsburgh to cover, so I'll give the points at home in a game I can't wait to see.

Enjoy and good luck!

Pick: Pittsburgh -3 (5/6 generally) (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Rashard Mendenhall 6/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Mike Wallace 5/4 (2pt)

Pick: E Sanders/TJ Houshmanzadeh Rec Yards Buy @ 15.0 (0.5pt/tick)
Pick: T Heap/H Miller Rec Yards    Buy @ 15.0 (0.5pts/tick)

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

My strongest bet of the weekend ... *drumroll* ... THE GREEN BAY PACKERS!

Vick is undoubtedly an explosive force, capable of making huge plays, but he needs to have some space and time and, if the Vikes gave him a rough time, the Packers can really shake him up. The Eagles' O line is looking in terrible nick - they are haemorrhaging sacks and allowing defenses to attack at multiple points along the line. This is particularly ugly against a defensive co-ordinator as talented as Dom Capers who loves to blitz. Green Bay are 2nd in the league with 47 sacks and look for Clay Matthews to come marauding through the line like a pitbull with a long memory.

One of Vick's greatest weaknesses is picking up the blitz, so it could get messy, but more importantly I've always contended that once Vick starts playing on the hoof, breaking up plays, yes it can be spectacular, but it can just as easily go badly, particularly if you have Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams waiting to see what you'll deliver downfield.

On the other side of the ball, the Pack are facing off against a secondary that is also dinged up and that's bound to spell trouble when Rodgers rolls into town, in good form, with a receiving corps as talented as Green Bay's. I'm expecting Jennings to score and he looks knocking value at 2/3 at PP.

The Green Bay Packers are just too strong in all departments.

Take the points.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 (5*)

Pick:1st TD Donald Driver 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Jennings 2/3 (2pts)

Pick: Sacks Supremacy: Green Bay/Philadelphia Buy at 1 (0.5pt/tick)


Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

Ravens. I know their offensive line has creaked and that Flacco has hardly got it rolling, but they'll let Ray rice tee off on the Chiefs' poor run D. If he gets 20 touches, the Ravens win and cover.

This may be a little playoff smash mouth, with Charles and Jones testing out the much vaunted Ravens' defense. If they find room and that sets up Cassel, Baltimore are in trouble, because their secondary is weak. Suggs' play may be critical in that regard - he can own Branden Albert and the Baltimore pass rush can get home against a Kansas O line that has started to give up sacks of late.

I actually like the Ravens quite a lot here; we saw yesterday how crucial the run game is in the post-season (reports of its death were much exaggerated) so really it'll come down to the effectiveness of these teams on the ground. I give Baltimore the edge.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 (3*)



New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

If Rex can get there with a maximum of 4 men blitzing, then he can shackle Manning; the problem is, he won't - on both counts. The New York pass rush isn't great and no-one, but no-one nullifies blitzes the way Manning does. You almost get the feeling he likes to see the pressure because he knows that means players can get open downfield.

You've got to respect Cromartie and Revis, but Manning has shown before that he can pick  apart any defence unless you can bring pressure, but leave guys in coverage, this is a problem for Ryan because both his safeties are struggling and Manning is bound to look for receivers in the slot running inside, where the Jets are much less strong. I like Tamme to score at 5/4 catching over the middle.

There's a sense that after a late season slump, Manning gave his head a shake and cleared his thoughts, because since week 13 he has looked terrific. Similarly, the Colts' defense, that might have proved an achilles heel against the Jets' ground game tonight, has tightened up considerably. Hell, even the Indianapolis backfield has shown signs of life!

Which Sanchez turns up tonight will be crucial too. Increasingly, the Jets have had to use their running game as a kind of comfort blanket for Sanchez as he has looked skittish in the face of pressure. Freeney and Mathis will bring it off the edge tonight, Robert Mathis may have a big game matching up on Wayne Hunter, and while it shouldn't turn into a bloodbath back there, if they can hit Sanchez (who is dealing with a dodgy shoulder) it'll test the young QBs appetite for a fight.

I like the Colts here and I'll give the points for a strong bet.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2 (3*)

Pick: Anytime TD Tamme 5/4 (1pt)


New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks

7-9 and in the playoffs? And those nine defeats have been by at least 15 points. The Seahawks sit 27th in pass defense, and 21st in run defense. They are going up against the number three passing game so Seattle CAN NOT win this game. Can they?

Well, New Orleans' run game is badly depleted, so Julius Jones and Reggie Bush are going to carry the load, and the Hawks have improved against the run. The usual targets for Brees are banged up too and Colston had his knee 'operated on' very recently. When these teams last met, in New Orleans, Seattle put up over 400 yards of offense and if Marshawn Lynch hadn't put the ball on the ground twice, they might have kept it much, much closer.

Try this; Seattle (are) the worst playoff team of all time in terms of point differential (against the fifth-easiest schedule in the league, according to ratings compiled by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today.) Next on the list were the 1998 Cardinals and 2004 Rams - both of whom won in the post-season.

Hasselbeck's two best games in terms of passing yards over the past six seasons have come against New Orleans, including a 362-yard effort in 2007. Hasselbeck also has won his last four home postseason starts.

The Saints, meanwhile, are 0-3 all-time in road playoff games.

Yikes

But really, the Saints must be able to just throw the thing and put this out of reach. Last week the Qwest Field factor played, but Brees isn't going to bottle this game and the Saints still have the weapons to roll over the Seahawks. My view of guys like Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings and Walter Thurmond hasn't changed, despite the fact they took all my money last week.

I like the Saints' receivers to get it done and Colston looks the value bet of the game to score at 8/11.

On the other side, despite his historical numbers against the Saints, Hasselbeck has turned it over much too much this season and Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer seem to switch up in the post-season. Lynch may get touches, but I don't make him a game changer.

I hope too, the officiating is better in this game - the Rams got the **** end of the stick and that down call late on was the cherry on the parfait (I know the Rams were complicit, but hey).

Some further caveats; I really want the Seahawks to get blown away today and that often makes for poor picking, I don't like to lay double digits and truth be told, I don't trust either of these teams, so keep stakes to a minimum. If you've got to have an interest ATS, I'd lay the 10.

Pick: New Orleans Saints -10*

Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston 8/11 (2pts) Skybet

"It's just frustrating to get this far and have an opportunity to make the playoffs, and to come up short," Bradford said. "Just frustrating." nfl.com

He threw for 289 yards and 2 TDs against the Seahawks in Week Four and last night looked like it was the first time he had seen a football.

Charlie Whitehurst had played in four games this season, throwing 1 TD and 3 INTs.

The Hawks haven't rushed for 100yds since about 1908. They don't have a recognisable defense (they had allowed at least 34 points in four of its last five games) and are going into the post-season as a 7-9 Divisional winner.

Pete Carroll thinks it is "pretty cool" to be going to the playoffs with a losing record.

I lost a sizeable amount in one of the worst games I've ever seen, after ignoring my own advice. There are times when I think I should retire to a hermitage; at least I'd be alone with my shame.

I'm off to kick the dog.

Rams @ Seahawks

Well, after screaming at the TV screen for a couple of hours - by the time Jennings was brought down inside the five for the second time I had to take a rest - and telling everyone to be careful this week ...

Rams. It must be.

Hasselbeck took a lot of snaps on Friday, and I suspect he'll start, but even if he does go, he's going to be limited and there's a strong chance Whitehurst will see some action. If the latter starts, then the Rams become a very strong bet.

The Seahawks are poor; they have beaten Jimmy Clausen, Max Hall and Derek Anderson respectively since beating the Bears in October and rank 29th against the pass and 22nd against the run.

I would expect the Rams to pound the rock with Jackson and then as that opens up the passing game, Sam Bradford, who is progressing nicely, should make hay. Guys like Marcus Trufant aren't going to frighten the Rams and the Seattle linebackers will struggle in coverage, maybe opening the door for Danny Amendola up the middle.

Give the points, take Rams and get a little money on board for 2011 and the playoffs.

Pick: St Louis -3 (4*)

Pick: 1st TD Steven Jackson 5/1 (1pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Danny Amendola 11/8 (1pt)

Packers @ Bears

It's the Pack for me. I've not bought the Bears all season (to my cost, to be honest!) and I still can't, particularly in this position; these two hate each other, but there's nothing on the line after Atlanta's win (I'm assuming they have won) and Lovie Smith has rested players before and could well do so again.

Recently the famed Bear's D has stuttered, and Rodgers and his receiving corps are going hog wild at the moment, so I expect them to attack Chicago vertically; look for Jennings to score. On the other side, Green Bay's D has also started to click and Cutler (or whoever is under center by game's end) could have a long evening's work ahead as the Packers, and particularly Clay Matthews, look to tear into the post-season.

It's a lot of points to lay (my old double-digit warning) so don't go crazy, but I'll give the points regardless.

Spread bet markets are OTB at the moment, but I'd be interested in the sacks market again, for the reasons I mentioned above.

Pick: Green Bay -9.5 (-11 generally) 2* (buy the extra point if possible)
Pick: 1st TD Greg Jennings 13/2 (1pt)

Bucs @ Saints

We're firmly into minefield territory now - I usually keep away this week (and last, more fool me) because some teams are beginning to prepare for the post-season (whether they're involved or not) and if the players and sidelines aren't distracted, tactical benching can kill you.

Were it not for Benn's absence on offense (the Saints will sit on Mike Williams and offer Jenkins as a safety blanket for their corners) and Gerald McCoy, Aqib Talib et al missing on the other side of the ball, I'd like the Buccaneers to cover, but as it is the value might lie in-running where the point spread is concerned. Keep an eye on the Atlanta score and if they are pulling ahead, don't be surprised if Payton starts benching guys late on, giving Tampa the chance to close up.

The same holds true for the player markets - Colston might see limited action for example with his ropey knee - but Blount may be worth a look as he looks to go over 1000yds on the season. I've looked around the spread firms, but they're a little gun-shy on this market, so I'll leave it up to you.

Pick: No bet

Saints @ Falcons

Matt Ryan is 19-1 in the Georgia Dome.

(Drew)Brees has led the Saints to victories in their last four Monday games, completing 75.8 percent of his passes for 1,256 yards with 13 touchdowns and one interception for a quarterback rating of 141.5 nfl.com

So there you are!

This should be a great game, and I'm set up like Elvis in the Jungle Room here, with TVs all over the place for the cricket and the football - right down to the fried banana and peanut butter sandwiches.

I like Atlanta here.

Brees is a beast and the Saints' offense is rolling, so opposing him as the MNF dog doesn't inspire, but Michael Turner should be the difference here against the undersized New Orleans front who have seen Anthony Hargrove and Remi Ayodele limited during the week. If the Falcons can get Turner moving the chains, Ryan is more than capable of finding Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez downfield.

Slowing down New Orleans is a huge challenge, but Atlanta have made progress on defense (they're quick up front and their secondary is on an upward curve)and if they can bring some pressure against an O line that has occasionally creaked in front of Brees, they should cover.

This is a big game for New Orleans if they want to stay in the hunt, but it's huge for Atlanta who can stay home until the big one in Dallas if they win tonight. They'll be keen to show they're for real and challenge teams to try and storm the dome.

I'll give the points.

Pick: Atlanta -2.5 (3*)
Pick: Over 49 (1*)

Pick: 1st TD Tony Gonzalez 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston 11/10 (2pts)

Well, I don't know what the Giants had to eat before the game, but it cost me a fortune. They just looked completely at sea. SIX turnovers, wasted challenges, circus catches, the whole shebang.

You're not going to win a football game against the Dagenham Girl Pipers playing like that.

The low point came with the bullshit pass interference call on 88 and then the immediate turnover where the Packer was ob. It was bound to go for seven. Then the Giants fumbled the kick off. By that point hysteria had set in here.

Having lauded Manning in my write-up, he was beyond horrible and I'm not sure Boss should've suited up.

OK, I've calmed down. All the money I've made on football over the last few weeks and I lost over half of it last night. Bugger.

Still, it was a bad pick and you take your licks, but my sincere apologies if anyone followed me in.

Giants @ Packers

This is better, this is where the rubber hits the road; a game that effectively means a trip to the post-season. Nice.

I like the Giants here.

You have two of the big beasts on defense going at it, and I expect the Giants to come after Rodgers like Tiger Woods after a Vegas cocktail waitress. I believe there's every prospect that Green Bay will have someone else under centre come the fourth quarter and even if not, they will get after the Packers with a vengeance after last week's astonishing loss to Vick. Green Bay has given up 13 sacks in the last three weeks, so they are prone to exposing their QB.

Manning is either feast or famine, but I like the boy's moxie and he has the talent and the weapons to get it done - I take him to have a solid game today behind an O line that is getting healthy (it'll need to be against Clay Matthews and the Packer pass rush) and using Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to set up the pass game.

Dom Capers is a defensive wiz, but the Packers will need to pack the box to start with to plug what is the only chink in their formidable defensive armour. This may allow Kevin Boss to come free over the middle and he has seen more and more looks recently and offers a little value to score at 6/4. Similarly, if the Giants get the run going, they'll be able to go deep to the likes of Nicks and just have more options on O than Green Bay. The sort of balance I like.

I'll take the points for a strong bet.

Pick: New York Giants +3 (4*)

Pick: Anytime TD Kevin Boss 6/4 (1pt)
Pick: New York Giants Sacks Buy @ 2.8 (1pt/tick) Recommended bet*

Jets @ Bears

There's every prospect of a little smash mouth football in this game, which is always a surprise where Mike Martz is concerned, but the two QBs are unreliable beasts and both are facing defenses that are more than capable of rattling them. The rub of course, is that those two defenses are also tough against the run.

This is a difficult game to call ATS, because if the momentum moves against one of the QBs, it'll get ugly, quickly. Of the two, Cutler looks the stronger proposition; Sanchez is struggling with an iffy shoulder and his O line misses Damien Woody badly and has given up sacks recently - not good against the Bears. On the other side, the Jets haven't been consistently pressuring the opposition trigger man, but they must fancy it against the Chicago O line that has leaked sacks all season. Cutler's options are limited out wide by Revis and Cromartie and they're unlikely to attack the soft middle very effectively.

This is not a game to get heavily involved in ATS, but as it's the holidays...

Pick: Chicago -2.5 (1*)