orioles

Giants @ Packers

This is better, this is where the rubber hits the road; a game that effectively means a trip to the post-season. Nice.

I like the Giants here.

You have two of the big beasts on defense going at it, and I expect the Giants to come after Rodgers like Tiger Woods after a Vegas cocktail waitress. I believe there's every prospect that Green Bay will have someone else under centre come the fourth quarter and even if not, they will get after the Packers with a vengeance after last week's astonishing loss to Vick. Green Bay has given up 13 sacks in the last three weeks, so they are prone to exposing their QB.

Manning is either feast or famine, but I like the boy's moxie and he has the talent and the weapons to get it done - I take him to have a solid game today behind an O line that is getting healthy (it'll need to be against Clay Matthews and the Packer pass rush) and using Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to set up the pass game.

Dom Capers is a defensive wiz, but the Packers will need to pack the box to start with to plug what is the only chink in their formidable defensive armour. This may allow Kevin Boss to come free over the middle and he has seen more and more looks recently and offers a little value to score at 6/4. Similarly, if the Giants get the run going, they'll be able to go deep to the likes of Nicks and just have more options on O than Green Bay. The sort of balance I like.

I'll take the points for a strong bet.

Pick: New York Giants +3 (4*)

Pick: Anytime TD Kevin Boss 6/4 (1pt)
Pick: New York Giants Sacks Buy @ 2.8 (1pt/tick) Recommended bet*