My strongest bet of the weekend ... *drumroll* ... THE GREEN BAY PACKERS!
Vick is undoubtedly an explosive force, capable of making huge plays, but he needs to have some space and time and, if the Vikes gave him a rough time, the Packers can really shake him up. The Eagles' O line is looking in terrible nick - they are haemorrhaging sacks and allowing defenses to attack at multiple points along the line. This is particularly ugly against a defensive co-ordinator as talented as Dom Capers who loves to blitz. Green Bay are 2nd in the league with 47 sacks and look for Clay Matthews to come marauding through the line like a pitbull with a long memory.
One of Vick's greatest weaknesses is picking up the blitz, so it could get messy, but more importantly I've always contended that once Vick starts playing on the hoof, breaking up plays, yes it can be spectacular, but it can just as easily go badly, particularly if you have Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams waiting to see what you'll deliver downfield.
On the other side of the ball, the Pack are facing off against a secondary that is also dinged up and that's bound to spell trouble when Rodgers rolls into town, in good form, with a receiving corps as talented as Green Bay's. I'm expecting Jennings to score and he looks knocking value at 2/3 at PP.
The Green Bay Packers are just too strong in all departments.
Take the points.
Pick: Green Bay Packers +2 (5*)
Pick:1st TD Donald Driver 12/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Greg Jennings 2/3 (2pts)
Pick: Sacks Supremacy: Green Bay/Philadelphia Buy at 1 (0.5pt/tick)
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Ravens. I know their offensive line has creaked and that Flacco has hardly got it rolling, but they'll let Ray rice tee off on the Chiefs' poor run D. If he gets 20 touches, the Ravens win and cover.
This may be a little playoff smash mouth, with Charles and Jones testing out the much vaunted Ravens' defense. If they find room and that sets up Cassel, Baltimore are in trouble, because their secondary is weak. Suggs' play may be critical in that regard - he can own Branden Albert and the Baltimore pass rush can get home against a Kansas O line that has started to give up sacks of late.
I actually like the Ravens quite a lot here; we saw yesterday how crucial the run game is in the post-season (reports of its death were much exaggerated) so really it'll come down to the effectiveness of these teams on the ground. I give Baltimore the edge.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 (3*)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
If Rex can get there with a maximum of 4 men blitzing, then he can shackle Manning; the problem is, he won't - on both counts. The New York pass rush isn't great and no-one, but no-one nullifies blitzes the way Manning does. You almost get the feeling he likes to see the pressure because he knows that means players can get open downfield.
You've got to respect Cromartie and Revis, but Manning has shown before that he can pick apart any defence unless you can bring pressure, but leave guys in coverage, this is a problem for Ryan because both his safeties are struggling and Manning is bound to look for receivers in the slot running inside, where the Jets are much less strong. I like Tamme to score at 5/4 catching over the middle.
There's a sense that after a late season slump, Manning gave his head a shake and cleared his thoughts, because since week 13 he has looked terrific. Similarly, the Colts' defense, that might have proved an achilles heel against the Jets' ground game tonight, has tightened up considerably. Hell, even the Indianapolis backfield has shown signs of life!
Which Sanchez turns up tonight will be crucial too. Increasingly, the Jets have had to use their running game as a kind of comfort blanket for Sanchez as he has looked skittish in the face of pressure. Freeney and Mathis will bring it off the edge tonight, Robert Mathis may have a big game matching up on Wayne Hunter, and while it shouldn't turn into a bloodbath back there, if they can hit Sanchez (who is dealing with a dodgy shoulder) it'll test the young QBs appetite for a fight.
I like the Colts here and I'll give the points for a strong bet.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2 (3*)
Pick: Anytime TD Tamme 5/4 (1pt)
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks
7-9 and in the playoffs? And those nine defeats have been by at least 15 points. The Seahawks sit 27th in pass defense, and 21st in run defense. They are going up against the number three passing game so Seattle CAN NOT win this game. Can they?
Well, New Orleans' run game is badly depleted, so Julius Jones and Reggie Bush are going to carry the load, and the Hawks have improved against the run. The usual targets for Brees are banged up too and Colston had his knee 'operated on' very recently. When these teams last met, in New Orleans, Seattle put up over 400 yards of offense and if Marshawn Lynch hadn't put the ball on the ground twice, they might have kept it much, much closer.
Try this; Seattle (are) the worst playoff team of all time in terms of point differential (against the fifth-easiest schedule in the league, according to ratings compiled by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today.) Next on the list were the 1998 Cardinals and 2004 Rams - both of whom won in the post-season.
Hasselbeck's two best games in terms of passing yards over the past six seasons have come against New Orleans, including a 362-yard effort in 2007. Hasselbeck also has won his last four home postseason starts.
The Saints, meanwhile, are 0-3 all-time in road playoff games.
Yikes
But really, the Saints must be able to just throw the thing and put this out of reach. Last week the Qwest Field factor played, but Brees isn't going to bottle this game and the Saints still have the weapons to roll over the Seahawks. My view of guys like Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings and Walter Thurmond hasn't changed, despite the fact they took all my money last week.
I like the Saints' receivers to get it done and Colston looks the value bet of the game to score at 8/11.
On the other side, despite his historical numbers against the Saints, Hasselbeck has turned it over much too much this season and Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer seem to switch up in the post-season. Lynch may get touches, but I don't make him a game changer.
I hope too, the officiating is better in this game - the Rams got the **** end of the stick and that down call late on was the cherry on the parfait (I know the Rams were complicit, but hey).
Some further caveats; I really want the Seahawks to get blown away today and that often makes for poor picking, I don't like to lay double digits and truth be told, I don't trust either of these teams, so keep stakes to a minimum. If you've got to have an interest ATS, I'd lay the 10.
Pick: New Orleans Saints -10*
Pick: Anytime TD Marques Colston 8/11 (2pts) Skybet