orioles

Bucs @ Saints

We're firmly into minefield territory now - I usually keep away this week (and last, more fool me) because some teams are beginning to prepare for the post-season (whether they're involved or not) and if the players and sidelines aren't distracted, tactical benching can kill you.

Were it not for Benn's absence on offense (the Saints will sit on Mike Williams and offer Jenkins as a safety blanket for their corners) and Gerald McCoy, Aqib Talib et al missing on the other side of the ball, I'd like the Buccaneers to cover, but as it is the value might lie in-running where the point spread is concerned. Keep an eye on the Atlanta score and if they are pulling ahead, don't be surprised if Payton starts benching guys late on, giving Tampa the chance to close up.

The same holds true for the player markets - Colston might see limited action for example with his ropey knee - but Blount may be worth a look as he looks to go over 1000yds on the season. I've looked around the spread firms, but they're a little gun-shy on this market, so I'll leave it up to you.

Pick: No bet