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The Management - on the contrary to what you said earlier, tomorrow looks quite good from the each way point of view, according to the Racing Post betting forecasts anyway.
For me the ones worth looking at are 2.00 Red, 2.40, 4.10 Yar and 6.30, 7.00 Newc. Maybe 7.15 Gal too Obviously waiting for the markets to develop, especially as an 8 runner and 9 runner fields to worry about. I feel a each way Lucky15 coming on! |
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Hi Biff - yes, you are correct - I was getting a bit ahead of myself - tomorrow does indeed look like it could be an interesting day! GL.
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Indeed it does, the 6-30 and 7-00 @ Newcastle look very interesting, as do a couple this afternoon @Redcar and Yarmouth......
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Blimey lou..are you a milkman?...05.20!
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Chatted to my milkman yesterday morning about 5.00am, said he'd been working since 11.00pm night before and would finish about 11.00am!
![]() Said he delivers 6 nights, some days are less hours about 8, but collects money in the afternoon as well! I told him he wouldn't live to see 60 if he carries on like that, said he had to as he had a mortgage to pay. His company M @ M had sacked all the blokes who refused to work nights and some of them had done over 30/40 years service! ![]() What a scumbag outfit! |
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Just made a new betting rule NEVER bet at Newcastle.....
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Yesterday was proper grim - my ew highlight was the 4:10 Yarmouth (I had both the winner and the second), the low-light was pretty much every other race I played ew!
Today the 14:55 at Sandown looks like it should be the foundation (banker selection) for some ew multis/accas but I'm not really able to confidently select a runner that I think will be placed and all 8 need to make it into the stalls. Any views? |
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Actually WON yesterday, heaven be praised!! thanks to the novice chase at Kelso.... Though I think I had plenty of luck on my side...... Can't see much to go at today....... yet..
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Just a couple that may be of interest today, both at tonight's evening meetings, 7-00 chelms 6-15 Southwell........ but it all depends on there being no none runners and market shape... So we'll have to see...
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Just had to smash into Carpool..
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And Man Of The Night...
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Todays each way lucky 15 Wasaayef 2.05 new, sermon 1-50catt, Seasony 1-40 chems, New York girl 1-35 gowran....
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ARCHIMENTO...... Good bet first Plumpton..
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I have a bet on boris leaving at4.5 and is now 1.25 but I can't cash out. can anyone help phone 0141 569 9347
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Management where are you????
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Hi Skip - I'm still about - I haven't posted recently due to being away for a few days (Thur & Friday) and then on Sat & Sun I had visitors (and no EW selections anyway). Plus (with the exception of your input, for which I am grateful) it was starting to feel a bit like I was just talking to myself!
I guess there is an argument which says the true selections are so blindingly obvious that no discussion is required - but I still find it a bit surprising and disappointing that so few people have posted/participated. Possibilities today - 13:50, 14:00, 14:10 and 19:30 (imo) but I think I might just concentrate on the 14:10 & 19:30. |
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I've been having difficulty replying to posts. When I try it just says i'm not allowed to edit. I dont know why it's worked this time
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Anyway the race i was interested in today is 7.30 at KP. Noble Music took my eye but the market seems to be on the change a bit.
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john..this does happen but if you clear cache and cookies you will be able to post.
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Thanks SK i'll do that
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Hi Jon - welcome back! (hopefully) - Hi Kenny.
I agree Noble Music (19:30) Jon if I were forced to bet - but it is a close thing and I'm not yet sure if I will play that race. 13:50: Highest Ground - looks a solid EW on the shape of THE market/maths - but I think possibly too many unknowns/lurkers for me. 14:00: The NR (which would likely have been the selection) has messed this race up imo - too many unknowns/place contenders imo 14:10: Considered doing ew both Monkey Puzzle & Len Brennan - suspect I will do Monkey puzzle, watching market atm regarding the other. 19:30: Alignak (fav) has already done me a huge favour LTO when disappointing (backed the winner and the 2nd), I want to take it on again with an EW alternative but finding it tough to separate several options at the prices. |
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I'm surprised that backing each way in such races is still worthwhile. When I give up work back in 2003 this was going to be my main strategy and indeed 2003-7 was very profitable but with restrictions and changes in SP/shows 2008-14 saw reduced profitability and I've not bothered with each way races (or indeed any bookmakers) since 2014 and now rely with various Betfair strategies.
But good luck for those who can still make it pay. |
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I would have to disagree with that view Brian. The betting world has obviously changed massively since about 2000 when BF came along and I too have done all kinds of things in that time, both on BF and elsewhere. The need to adapt has been pretty constant (for me). My absolute prime time on BF was laying horses between 2000-2002 and I had a very good period (to a slightly lesser extent) between 2002-2006 laying horses. From 2008 I largely moved away from laying Horses and I have done all sorts of things on all kinds of markets since then with BF and via alternatives.
But the one constant throughout all of my betting adventures has been filthy each way betting. As a few posters (filthy arbers! ) have already highlighted the maths alone guarantees a return (whatever the outcome of the race) in some races if you are a trader/arber. I tend not to trade myself as the volumes required would be impossible for me to get on - but the same mathematical edge that has always been there, is still there, whether you trade out or if you let your bets run. Value is value. EW betting (in the right races) will always represent value (an edge) until such time as the terms get changed. There are ups and downs, highs and lows but I believe I can attribute them to my selections (playing too tight or playing too loose) - I don't see any fundamental changes in my fortunes that can be attributed to any wider changes that have taken place. |
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2.00 has to be a bet doesn't it.
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Hi Stewart,
On the maths, yes, the 14:00 should be an ew bet. Also I'd really like to oppose the fav - but what with? IMO it's just one of those races with a long odds on fav but not enough to go on to pick a solid ew selection to oppose it with. The only indicator is the market (Leoch is 2nd fav) but I would like a bit more to go on than that. There is so little to go on, that I can't even rule Garnock Valley out as a possible place contender, so nowhere near enough confidence to have a proper EW single (imo). |
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dulas higher ground 1.50..the 2 hughes horses and leoch 2.00....6x£1 ew doubles...return(if any) to follow.
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Garnock Valley just pipped for 3rd on the line!
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return £3.52..I'm not good at this!
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Your bet was like the 1970's Kenny - too many perms!
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I'm not the sharpest tool in the box.
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I know I'm after-timing (but I don't really care) - I had to abandon my planned ew bet in the 14:10 due to the NR/short prices. Then (due to the unexpectedly large prices available) I got sucked into playing 2 horses in the EW market on here in the 16:00 at Leicester (BF still 3 places in the EW market), so I am now happy enough with my day.
As such, I'm gonna give the 19:30 at Kempton a swerve - It was borderline anyway - really I just wanted to oppose the short priced fav Alignak (it was 6/4 ish when I first posted) but obviously everybody else has had the same idea - as it's not really very short priced anymore (now 5/2 ish) and I'm worried it might even become my selection if I hang around and it drifts any further!! I hope some of you more cavalier players (braver than me) had the winner of the 13:50 and the 2nd in the 14:00. Catch you tomorrow. GL |
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I know it's very early but it looks like 2.30 Bev and 4.50 chelms for me today.
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Good morning Jonmh et al,
I agree regards the 14:30 (Beverley) and 16.50 (Chelmsford) - and I am additionally (probably foolishly!) thinking of playing the 14:00 (Beverley). I have to admit I am (as usual!!) a little bit conflicted on all of the proposed ew races today. i.e. None of my selections really leapt off the page! But the "safety first" approach cost me a very tidy 3/1 winner at ISP yesterday (13:50)! 14:00 Bev: Probably shouldn't be an ew race at all really - but everything has a price and AT THE PRICES i couldn't resist two small EW shop bets on Able Kane (at 5/1) and Capla Spirit (at 6/1). Slightly disappointed returning home to see them both trading slightly higher than that on the EW market here! - but was happy with those prices this morning to smallish stakes. 14:30 Bev: Dontaskmeagain looks (at first glance) to be a no-brainer on the maths/market shape. I'm not 100% convinced about it and couldn't bring myself to back it EW at 11/4 in shops with a 7lb penalty. I will probably back it ew reluctantly if it drifts past 3/1 but still struggling to see why the next 4 horses in the market are such big prices - particularly Berties Princess at 14/1. Wait and watch market & check that all 8 run! 16:50 Che: On the maths/market shape, I would probably like to bet both Magical Moment and Electric Ladyland Each Way. So I would like to see the fav (or others) shorten as would like at least 3/1+ for each of them to be ew bets - because always a bit wary to bet front runners/pace setters (Electrical Ladyland) each way - if they get it wrong or get taken on for the lead they can finish unplaced! Plus the draw (9) is a bit off putting for Magical Moment and the jockey not my fav for getting a place if he can't win the race on the snaff! Wait and watch market. Incisive and decisive as ever. ![]() GL all. |
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Happy with the 5/1 winner (obviously!) Able Kane - bit gutted at getting done for 3rd in the photo (losing 2 stakes!).
Slightly worried the going is even softer than I thought it would be - adding to my reservations about the 14:30 being a click and point ew race. |
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14:30 Dontaskmeagain is friendless! - I'm gonna swerve it (7lb penalty on soft) as already have some small but nice ew shop accs/trebles running onto it.
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Pished up at 7/2! ![]() ![]() Consolation is that us shroodies took the 11/4 in their multis this morning! - I do have a nice little permed ew treble running onto both the 2nd and 3rd favs in the 16:50 at Chelmsford! 5/1 winner and 11/4 winner, no prices taken on either selection in the 16:50 race. |
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Feck it - just see I actually took 5/2 about Dontaskmeagain in my trebles!
But still 21 win steaks (from 8 ew units staked) running onto both Magical Moment and Electric Ladyland!!! |
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Thanks for all the "Good Luck" messages!
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Great stuff TM and well done, sorry hadn't seen before!
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Very well done The Management, I'm afraid I'm very much a reader and not a poster, but I have followed with interest this topic and have had some successes due to the input from the various contributiors. Maybe I will be braver and try to contribute in future
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