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Agreed Jon, I don't play the Irish ones very often - but My Friend Stan is a bit of a tempter (imo).
Plus there is a Handicap (13:40 Muss) - I also try to avoid the HC's but the fav is getting backed into a mind-boggling short price imo (trading at 1.35 as I type). Will try to resist (both) I think (too late for me to do any "shopping" anyway) but will watch markets with interest. |
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Pleased to see that My Friend Stan got a place in the 13:50 at the Curragh - but the race result still serves as a timely reminder of why I rarely bet on the Irish ones! The Handicap result (13:40 Musselburgh) was a lot more interesting imo!
Nothing at all on the EW horses for me today and in the absence of any snooker - a welcome day off. |
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The 4.00 at Hamilton is starting to interest me. 6/5, 3/1, 100/30, 10/1 bar. Dead 8 though so will wait.
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Hi Jon - yeah, the 16:00 at Hamilton was the only race that briefly caught my eye. I was most attracted to the (very exposed!) Ventura Flame purely because of the Heavy going. I decided there were too many "lurkers" even all the way down to the stable companion Funky Dunky at 40/1!.
The ground will surely influence the outcome (imo), so I suppose (having looked at it again) - I would be happy to bet VF ew at 7/2 BOG (with PP) but as you point out, we need all 8 to run so taking an early price is not really an option - the usual dilemma! GL mate. |
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Jon I am gonna unashamedly after-time! (hopefully people know my M.O. on this thread well enough and coupled with my 12:18 post I don't feel too guilty/ashamed about commenting AFTER the race).
I wouldn't have bet on the 16:00 race at all or even looked at the race any further without your 11:34am post (pointing out the first NR) so the thread has paid me a dividend (at last!) and I owe you one for making me look again at the race - I very sincerely hope you were on it yourself - Thank You! I took some 4.30 and a lot of 4.40 on here about Ventura Flame in the Each Way for THREE places market (while there were still 8 runners - I did it on here to insure still 3 places if any more NR's). After the deduction I ended up with about 4.09 (Average) minus commission which (obviously now) seems very generous given that I still had THREE places to gun for. Not sure the best horse won the race to honest - but it was very clearly the best horse on todays going! btw - Funky Dunky ran in to 4th at 40/1 ![]() |
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TM glad you were on. I got to the shop and saw there was only seven runners so i did what I sometimes do and dutched the second and third in against the fav. It worked out at around 10/11 the pair coupled so I got away with it.
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A few might be of interest today.
2.30 Sed 2/7, 5/2, 20/1 bar. only 2 places. 4.05 Cork 5/6, 7/2, 9/1 bar 6.40 Kemp 10/11, 11/4, 13/2, 11/1 bar. I'm also going to monitor the markets on the 6.10 at Kemp and 5.05 at Cork. |
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Morning Jon! - thanks again for pointing out the NR in the 16:00 yesterday - I'm pleased to hear that you benefited too. The race must have made very pleasant viewing for you, being on both of the two that pretty much had the race to themselves.
I'm running a bit behind today, I can't see any total "stand outs/classic filth" - but looking at the same 5 or 6 races as you, with a view to maybe doing some small stake scatter-gun ew singles and very speculative tiny stake ew multiples. It doesn't look like a day for big stakes (imo) but will come back with some thoughts shortly/later. GL all. |
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Morning TM
I was quite keen on Hazran in the 4.05 at Cork (i know the Irish isn't for you) but it's been pulled out making the fav shorten to 4/7. It's only served to muddy the waters though as the competition for the three places has become tighter. I'll probably back Lord Roccoco against the fav in the novice hurdle at Sedgefield and play a waiting game with Kempton tonight. Good luck with your bets today. |
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Hi Jon - I can't argue with that! - I spent way too long looking at the Handicaps at Ayr (I don't play them often but I do like a soft ground handicap at the end of the season!) although that's not for this thread.
For this thread - I have now discarded as too hard (imo) and/or too Irish - the 14:05, 16:05, 16:10 and 17:05. I think that leaves me with exactly the same as you - the 14:30 at Sedgefield, plus the 18:10 & 18:40 at Kempton. But I am also still trying to find an angle into the 14:50 at Ayr (based on the ground/going) and intend to watch more replays. Current thoughts as follows: 14:30: Lord Roccocco - Not keen on only 2 places and missed the early 3/1 - but at 11/4 or better (quarter odds 2 places) it looks a speculative small stake ew single imo. 14:50: Looks like way too many "lurkers" (FTO or lightly raced potential improvers) but still looking for a soft ground based play (possibly looking too hard!) and will keep watching replays for now. 18:10: Miss Paxman's current market graph looks like a set of stairs (going up!), it's currently friendless and there are a lot of "lurkers" but at the prices, I might consider forgiving her latest run and putting my faith in the Blinkers - will watch market and wait. 18:40: Quite a few "lurkers" and the yard doesn't have a track record for doing me any favours - but Overpriced Mixer looks a possible play. Would want BOG as stable runners seem to either attract heavy support or drift heavily (imo). Will watch market and wait. Definitive and Incisive as ever - but I always reserve the right to change my mind based on prices and/or NR's on days (like this) when nothing really stands out! GL all - the slow drip fills the bucket! (tiny stakes advised). |
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A quick update (to avoid after-timing!). All small stakes!
14:30: Took a chance on no further NR's - bet Lord Roccocco ew at 11/4 (not BOG). 14:50: Gave up eventually! Concluded just not enough to go an and too many "lurkers"! 18:10: Still watching (the admittedly badly drawn) Miss Paxman drifting like a barge! - watch and wait. 18:40: Still like Overpriced Mixer but as stated before, I don't like the yard, so - watch and wait. |
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18:10 Kempton - Update...
I have got a bit carried away as the market seems all wrong to me. Done Miss Paxman small EW (despite the draw, the trip and the headgear!) at about 7/1 I have had even smaller EW's on both Valetta & Trecco bay - each at around 14/1 Not what I intended (at all!) but happy to throw a few quid at an odd (imo) market. GL all. |
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Hmmm! Market correct, Management hopelessly wrong!
Would have been better if they couldn't have got Miss Paxman into the stalls. Trecco Bay does a poor imitation of arazi and Valetta only partially saves the day. |
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Still think OverpricedMixerr a fair bet..
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I'm going to swerve the 18:40 at Kempton - That should give all you Osborne backers a chance!
Both the races I have played ew today (14:30 & 18:10) have yielded a loss. A couple of the Irish races that I very shrewdly chose to avoid (16:05 & 17:05) would have worked out quite well! - had I chosen not to avoid them! ![]() GL all. |
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Hi skip - I don't like the stable - but using the market as a guide it looks hopeful. I have missed the boat on the price, so no play. GL mate.
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Cheers..... Needed that...
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Well done! - I could have done with it too but deciding not to do it, pretty much sums up my day!
Catch up with you soon. GL. |
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Morning all. The Osborne horse and a bit of luck in Ireland gave me a profit yesterday. Much needed as there hadn't been any of note since last Tuesday.
2.35 Hunt - Interested in Carry On but once again it's the dead 8. 5.40 Kemp - Joint favs at 5/4. Id be interested if either drift. 6.55 Newc - 2/5 fav but the 2nd and 3rd in are unraced. I'll probably play both to tiny stakes. Can't see much else. |
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Morning Jon.
The Irish stuff worked out very well indeed yesterday (annoyingly!) - but I just don't trust the markets or my ability to judge them over there! Such a pity because so many races over there have a great betting shape to them. Yesterday was a bit exceptional (imo), The winner of the 16:05 (would have been my filthy ew play in my cavalier days gone by) so it drifts from 6/1 Second Favourite out to a friendless 10/1 (20/1+ on BF win market!) and then wins quite nicely! Similar story in the 17:05, the winner (which would have been my filthy ew selection in my braver days gone by) opens at 7/2 clear second fav, drifts out to 6/1 and wins nicely too! Doh! I just don't have the confidence (from experience) to play the Irish races in (decent stake) ew singles - and similar races have ruined many a decent multiple for me over the years. So yesterday was a bit painful to watch! Glad you played though. Probably wrestling with the same 3 races as you today. Still contemplating. GL. |
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Wow! 14:15 & 14:25 both turned pretty filthy!
![]() In order to give it a better chance, I have reduced my stake (laid some back at a shorter price!) on Carry On. Filthy arber! |
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Hmm - need a new system, reducing stakes usually results in a winner!
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wd management.
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14:45 Lingfield - Despite thinking the Gosden horse (Sheriffmuir) might win by a street - I have backed (ew) both Almahha (6/1) and Imhotep (5/1 & 11/2). What could possibly go wrong!
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Think Poseidon could be a fair bet 2-40 Gowran... The front 2 in the betting looking dodge pot's
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I also like Miss Cognac in the 2-05......think she might be the strongest stayer out of the 3 "runners".
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Shut the box 4.05 font
keep an eye on 7.00 at wolv. Dead 8. |
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DeFutures Bright.... has excellent point form and looks a cracking bet in the 2nd at Uttoxeter, as does Madeira Mist in the last...
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1.45 Kelso-Wilhelm Vonvenster
2.10 Uttox-Tingo in the Tale/Just Marvin 2.30 Tipp-Imaging/Yulong Gold Fairy 5.20 Uttox-Potters Venture. |
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Blimey yesterday was expensive......... Hopefully Donald Mccain and Brian Hughes can do the business for me in the first at Stratford.....
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7.10 Chelmsford looks the best race today. 16/1 bar the front three.
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Gatwick Kitten a stonking bet in the first..
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Some lovely races today...
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I'm still not doing the Irish ones Skip!
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Don't blame you did Nebuchadnezzar... At Wincanton and i am doing Informed Front 5-45 wolves..
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Hi Skip - I really struggled with the 17:45.
Your selection does look the most sensible choice to play. I was really very taken with Perfect Number first time out and (if you can forgive an admittedly very disappointing run afterwards - I am usually willing to forgive any horse a poor showing at Newcastle), I think she might be a solid place only bet (at the prices) - especially if they go mad short on any/all of the front three in the market. Can't say I'd fancy her to win and I already have some place money running on, so probably won't get involved further - so that gives her every chance! ![]() |
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take it we were ALL on Transition.......::::::::
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Hi Skip - was a bit of a classic wasn't it! - Horse bets have been few and far between but managed to talk myself into that one!Like the AW but missing the flat already! ![]() |
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16:45 Wolves - another classic (in terms of Market Shape)
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