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mr_sykes
30 Jan 11 15:54
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Nov 06
| Topic/replies: 867 | Blogger: mr_sykes's blog
tried to place a bet today and was told win only as it was a bad each way race for the firm,how do you get a list of these races?
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Report jonmh. September 23, 2019 11:28 AM BST
Thanks SK i'll do that
Report The Management September 23, 2019 11:45 AM BST
Hi Jon - welcome back! (hopefully) - Hi Kenny.

I agree Noble Music (19:30) Jon if I were forced to bet - but it is a close thing and I'm not yet sure if I will play that race.

13:50: Highest Ground - looks a solid EW on the shape of THE market/maths - but I think possibly too many unknowns/lurkers for me.
14:00: The NR (which would likely have been the selection) has messed this race up imo - too many unknowns/place contenders imo
14:10: Considered doing ew both Monkey Puzzle & Len Brennan - suspect I will do Monkey puzzle, watching market atm regarding the other.
19:30: Alignak (fav) has already done me a huge favour LTO when disappointing (backed the winner and the 2nd), I want to take it on again with an EW alternative but finding it tough to separate several options at the prices.
Report Brian September 23, 2019 11:53 AM BST
I'm surprised that backing  each way in such races is still worthwhile. When I give up work back in 2003 this was going to be my main strategy and indeed 2003-7 was very profitable but with restrictions and changes in SP/shows 2008-14 saw reduced profitability and I've not bothered with each way races (or indeed any bookmakers) since 2014 and now rely with various Betfair strategies.
But good luck for those who can still make it pay.
Report The Management September 23, 2019 1:19 PM BST
I would have to disagree with that view Brian. The betting world has obviously changed massively since about 2000 when BF came along and I too have done all kinds of things in that time, both on BF and elsewhere. The need to adapt has been pretty constant (for me). My absolute prime time on BF was laying horses between 2000-2002 and I had a very good period (to a slightly lesser extent) between 2002-2006 laying horses. From 2008 I largely moved away from laying Horses and I have done all sorts of things on all kinds of markets since then with BF and via alternatives.

But the one constant throughout all of my betting adventures has been filthy each way betting. As a few posters (filthy arbers! Whoops) have already highlighted the maths alone guarantees a return (whatever the outcome of the race) in some races if you are a trader/arber. I tend not to trade myself as the volumes required would be impossible for me to get on - but the same mathematical edge that has always been there, is still there, whether you trade out or if you let your bets run. Value is value. EW betting (in the right races) will always represent value (an edge) until such time as the terms get changed.

There are ups and downs, highs and lows but I believe I can attribute them to my selections (playing too tight or playing too loose) - I don't see any fundamental changes in my fortunes that can be attributed to any wider changes that have taken place.
Report stewarts rise September 23, 2019 1:23 PM BST
2.00 has to be a bet doesn't it.
Report The Management September 23, 2019 1:37 PM BST
Hi Stewart,

On the maths, yes, the 14:00 should be an ew bet. Also I'd really like to oppose the fav - but what with?

IMO it's just one of those races with a long odds on fav but not enough to go on to pick a solid ew selection to oppose it with. The only indicator is the market (Leoch is 2nd fav) but I would like a bit more to go on than that. There is so little to go on, that I can't even rule Garnock Valley out as a possible place contender, so nowhere near enough confidence to have a proper EW single (imo).
Report sofiakenny September 23, 2019 1:52 PM BST
dulas higher ground 1.50..the 2 hughes horses and leoch 2.00....6x£1 ew doubles...return(if any) to follow.
Report The Management September 23, 2019 2:05 PM BST
Garnock Valley just pipped for 3rd on the line! Wink
Report sofiakenny September 23, 2019 2:08 PM BST
return £3.52..I'm not good at this!Laugh
Report The Management September 23, 2019 2:10 PM BST
Your bet was like the 1970's Kenny - too many perms! Grin
Report sofiakenny September 23, 2019 2:25 PM BST
I'm not the sharpest tool in the box.Sad
Report The Management September 23, 2019 5:01 PM BST
I know I'm after-timing (but I don't really care) - I had to abandon my planned ew bet in the 14:10 due to the NR/short prices. Then (due to the unexpectedly large prices available) I got sucked into playing 2 horses in the EW market on here in the 16:00 at Leicester (BF still 3 places in the EW market), so I am now happy enough with my day.

As such, I'm gonna give the 19:30 at Kempton a swerve - It was borderline anyway - really I just wanted to oppose the short priced fav Alignak (it was 6/4 ish when I first posted) but obviously everybody else has had the same idea - as it's not really very short priced anymore (now 5/2 ish) and I'm worried it might even become my selection if I hang around and it drifts any further!!

I hope some of you more cavalier players (braver than me) had the winner of the 13:50 and the 2nd in the 14:00. Catch you tomorrow. GL
Report jonmh. September 24, 2019 6:13 AM BST
I know it's very early but it looks like 2.30 Bev and 4.50 chelms for me today.
Report The Management September 24, 2019 1:28 PM BST
Good morning Jonmh et al,

I agree regards the 14:30 (Beverley) and 16.50 (Chelmsford) - and I am additionally (probably foolishly!) thinking of playing the 14:00 (Beverley). I have to admit I am (as usual!!) a little bit conflicted on all of the proposed ew races today. i.e. None of my selections really leapt off the page! But the "safety first" approach cost me a very tidy 3/1 winner at ISP yesterday (13:50)!

14:00 Bev: Probably shouldn't be an ew race at all really - but everything has a price and AT THE PRICES i couldn't resist two small EW shop bets on Able Kane (at 5/1) and Capla Spirit (at 6/1). Slightly disappointed returning home to see them both trading slightly higher than that on the EW market here! - but was happy with those prices this morning to smallish stakes.
14:30 Bev: Dontaskmeagain looks (at first glance) to be a no-brainer on the maths/market shape. I'm not 100% convinced about it and couldn't bring myself to back it EW at 11/4 in shops with a 7lb penalty. I will probably back it ew reluctantly if it drifts past 3/1 but still struggling to see why the next 4 horses in the market are such big prices - particularly Berties Princess at 14/1. Wait and watch market & check that all 8 run!
16:50 Che: On the maths/market shape, I would probably like to bet both Magical Moment and Electric Ladyland Each Way. So I would like to see the fav (or others) shorten as would like at least 3/1+ for each of them to be ew bets - because always a bit wary to bet front runners/pace setters (Electrical Ladyland) each way - if they get it wrong or get taken on for the lead they can finish unplaced! Plus the draw (9) is a bit off putting for Magical Moment and the jockey not my fav for getting a place if he can't win the race on the snaff! Wait and watch market.

Incisive and decisive as ever. BlushWink GL all.
Report The Management September 24, 2019 2:12 PM BST
Happy with the 5/1 winner (obviously!) Able Kane - bit gutted at getting done for 3rd in the photo (losing 2 stakes!).

Slightly worried the going is even softer than I thought it would be - adding to my reservations about the 14:30 being a click and point ew race.
Report The Management September 24, 2019 2:26 PM BST
14:30 Dontaskmeagain is friendless! - I'm gonna swerve it (7lb penalty on soft) as already have some small but nice ew shop accs/trebles running onto it.
Report The Management September 24, 2019 2:37 PM BST
Blush Pished up at 7/2! LaughWhoops

Consolation is that us shroodies took the 11/4 in their multis this morning!  Blush - I do have a nice little permed ew treble running onto both the 2nd and 3rd favs in the 16:50 at Chelmsford! 5/1 winner and 11/4 winner, no prices taken on either selection in the 16:50 race.
Report The Management September 24, 2019 2:42 PM BST
Feck it - just see I actually took 5/2 about Dontaskmeagain in my trebles!

But still 21 win steaks (from 8 ew units staked) running onto both Magical Moment and Electric Ladyland!!!
Report The Management September 24, 2019 4:48 PM BST
Thanks for all the "Good Luck" messages! Cry
Report stewarts rise September 24, 2019 5:01 PM BST
Great stuff TM and well done, sorry hadn't seen before!Grin
Report robbouk69 September 24, 2019 5:10 PM BST
Very well done The Management, I'm afraid I'm very much a reader and not a poster, but I have followed with interest this topic and have had some successes due to the input from the various contributiors. Maybe I will be braver and try to contribute in future
Report The Management September 24, 2019 5:15 PM BST
No worries Stewarts - was getting used to talking to myself - but thank you!

I think taking 5/2 about the Johnston horse has cost me about 27 unit steaks (sic) but I can't complain.

Then again, having said that, I do like to complain! - so I am a bit annoyed that the money running-on dissuaded me from having any proper/chunky ew singles!
Hi robbouk69 - very nice to hear from you or anybody for that matter!. Any contributions gladly received by me and I feel honoured to have received your annual post this year! - Just kidding, please feel free though.

Jonmh - If you are there and unable to post?? - I hope you have had it off mate. GL all.
Report Brian September 24, 2019 5:37 PM BST
Well done TM. Glad to see there still some juice there.
Report The Management September 24, 2019 5:53 PM BST
Cheers Brian - I think my response to you the other day was (unintentionally) a bit harsh and possibly a bit patronising Blush. But only really realised that too late (after I had posted it!). It is so hard to communicate this way, in print (without any facial expression, voice tone or body language), I guess it partially explains why so many people seems so angry all the time in this age of the internet. Anyway, just wanted to say - thanks for not taking offence and I'm glad you are still looking in.
Report jonmh. September 24, 2019 6:23 PM BST
Cheers TM yep it's been a good day. I backed both winners in singles and a double (2.30 and 4.50) and having read your initial post I had a look at the 2.00 and backed Able Kane as well so a big thanks to you mate.  I also had a dabble in the 2.10 at Warwick which was dominated by the front three in the betting and that was placed so  good day all round.
Report jonmh. September 24, 2019 6:34 PM BST
A quick glance at tomorrow's cards suggests an interesting day
Report jonmh. September 24, 2019 6:38 PM BST
The first four races at Kempton seem to fit the bill and theres one at Perth as well
Report sofiakenny September 24, 2019 6:44 PM BST
The management can't you get bog?...I doubled my outlay on the 2.30 4.50 ew doubles..a good day.Happy
Report The Management September 24, 2019 6:45 PM BST
Nice Jonmh! - very pleased to hear that. Catch up tomorrow.

It looks very interesting indeed (potentially) tomorrow - 14:10 Perth (if 8 run), 18:45 Newcastle and then several races at Kempton 17:00, 17:30 & 18:30.

It could be a long day!
Report The Management September 24, 2019 7:09 PM BST
Hi Kenny - glad you had a good day. WD.

I get bog (whenever I can) but today's bets were mostly with Korals (they were offering the best early prices on the 14:00 where I wanted to do ew singles). I believe korals use the offering of BOG to "encourage" you sign up for a "reward" card of some kind (can't remember the name of it) and for obvious reasons I don't want a registered card of any kind! So I don't think I got BOG today. Might be a nice surprise when I pick up - but I doubt it!

tbh - I am am usually a pretty good judge of an early price (in my modest opinion!). But obviously in the shops it's sometimes a toss-up between BOG versus the bigger early price elsewhere that isn't BOG.

Today, I am disappointed to have take 5/2 about the 7/2 (ISP) Johnston winner at 14:30 - so it's a good example of the merits of BOG - but i got  5/1 (versus ISP of 9/2) on the first winner Able Kane (singly and in the trebles), I took 6/1 about the 4th placed horse in that race Capla Spirit (ISP was only 5/1). I declined the (very tight!) 11/4 on both runners (took no prices/accepted ISP) in the final race, so I got 7/2 (ISP) on the third winner Electric Ladyland. The unplaced selection in that race was 4/1 (ISP).

So obviously BOG would be preferable but i won't provide my name and address etc to secure it!
Report jonmh. September 25, 2019 9:32 AM BST
I'm not as confident this morning as I was last night
Report The Management September 25, 2019 9:53 AM BST
Hi Jonmh - I am a way late/behind today (I had to get the wifes car MOT'd & Serviced early this morning).

I have to agree - it all looks a lot more "competitive" than it did last night! The non-runner has screwed the 14:10 Perth (imo). Currently planning to have a proper look at 17:00, 17:30, 18:30 and 18:45 (and maybe 13:15) but already struggling to make definitive single ew selections!
Report The Management September 25, 2019 12:26 PM BST
Looks like one of those days with a lot of short priced favs but nothing leaping of the page as the likely sole competitor against them (even in the races where I think the short fav might not be bulletproof). I got away with one yesterday - but today I think I will stick to my own trusted advice - which states - if you have to look too hard for them, they probably aren't there! Current thoughts as follows:

13:15 Red: Never intended to play this race but the betting surprises me and I would be quite happy to have an EW single on Bentley Wood if it keeps drifting and/or if the Haggas horse (Convict) keeps shortening. Quite a few "lurkers"(FTO or lightly raced potential improvers) but the drift is still surprising. Prob/Poss bet.
14:10 Per: Now only 7 runners due to NR - no bet.
17:00 Kem: The maths and the early market move indicates Qasbaz. I like the jockey, don't like the trainer much and there are too many "lurkers" (lightly raced potential improvers). Would consider doing the fav (Desert Safari), in the very unlikely event that the massive drift continues and it becomes an "each-wayable" price! - no bet (yet!)
17:30:Kem: The maths and the early market indicates Pepper Bay - but it's FTO and there are plenty "lurkers" It's not quite Arazi (Love) and I'm not quite sure what it actually beat - but the fav (Dance Fever) was very impressive First Time Out (imo). - no bet (yet!)
18:00 Kem: A "lurkers" race if ever there was one! - but Jean Baptiste very nearly did me a favour LTO and the trainer is in much better form now. Expected it to be fav - not gonna take 5/2 ew (best price at moment) but would be an ew bet if it drifted a little. Prob/Poss bet.
18:30 Kem: Wanna take on such a short fav with something ew - but assuming it places at the very least, that leave 4 horses (imo) battling for 2 places. Slight preference for Big Daddy Kane (at the prices) - but can;t really split them - so proably no bet.
18:45 New: The maths and early market indicates Zezinia - but it's FTO and there are plenty of "lurkers" imo - probably no bet.

In summary (at the moment) it looks like my only ew singles might be the 13:15 and 18:00. I will also be doing some very, very small staked but ambitious multiples to include all the races above (except the 14:10).
Report The Management September 25, 2019 1:34 PM BST
A disappointing start - it looked good at half way (imo) but found practically nothing and was passed by a couple of the "lurkers" to finish only 4th. I would love to say the market corrected itself (imo) and it eventually went off too short, so I didn't back it - but unfortunately I went in ew at an average of about 5/2 (so I'm happy to after-time my losers as well as the odd winner!) - my decision to bet or not to bet on "borderline" selections is ALWAYS gonna be dependant on the prices.
Report stewarts rise September 25, 2019 3:05 PM BST
3.50 Sligo a possible TM!
Report The Management September 25, 2019 3:16 PM BST
Hi Stewarts! - Nice to have some input - but do you mean the 15:30? If so I very rarely do beginners chases and only very rarely do anything much in Ireland.
Report The Management September 25, 2019 3:17 PM BST
If you meant 16:30 - the same applies (Irish Chase)! - not for me.
Report stewarts rise September 25, 2019 3:29 PM BST
Sorry 3.30.
Report skiptoomaloumacari September 25, 2019 4:53 PM BST
Hi everybody......... I backed Bentley Wood as well at Redcar..... Very disappointing run I thought....... Not very keen on anything in the 4 each way races which start the card at Kempton..... Though I'm not too keen on the fav in the 2nd and the Watson is very short...but the rest much of a muchness..
Report The Management September 25, 2019 6:01 PM BST
Jean Baptiste too short for a bet
Report The Management September 25, 2019 6:06 PM BST
Touched 1.23 IR but beaten by a big priced "lurker"!

I always have a quick look at Baldings when 2nd time out (they often come on a tonne for the run) but really could never have backed that.
Report skiptoomaloumacari September 26, 2019 12:50 PM BST
Personally I think there are 3 no brainers today.... TARAMANSOUR 2-10 GOWRAN, NEVER BE ENOUGH 2-35 PERTH, GREEN BROOK 4-35 PONTE....... All 3 got excellent form credentials.. Imo.... Nice each way trixie...
Report The Management September 26, 2019 1:07 PM BST
I'm with you skip! - long morning! - but I'm on the first 2 of those in ew singles (including the Irish one!), plus Good Earth (14:15).

Out again now - but back for 16:35 and 18:00 hopefully. GL all.
Report hologon September 26, 2019 1:19 PM BST
With you shrewdies
Report stewarts rise September 26, 2019 2:56 PM BST
Like Colwood 7.45
Bigger and Better 5.35 GP.
Report The Management September 27, 2019 9:15 AM BST
WD Stewarts!

It's been a couple of slow (and losing) days here - but not too much damage done on the week as Tuesday was exceptionally good. Looking back over two consecutive poor/losing days - I really am playing far to loose atm. Nothing EW for me today. I will just be doing some snooker and some chores.
For anyone interested in (relatively meaningless) stats - Liverpool are 6 from 6 to be winning at Half Time/Full Time in the EPL. They play away at Sheffield United at 12:30 tomorrow. (Wrong Forum Muppet!). GL all.
Report jonmh. September 27, 2019 10:13 AM BST
I can only find one race to play in at the moment. 5.45 Dundalk 10/11, 3/1, 4/1, 14/1 bar. Chasing the Dawn EW @ 3/1.
Report The Management September 27, 2019 10:21 AM BST
I think the Fav (Peaceful) is a NR Jon.
Report jonmh. September 27, 2019 10:27 AM BST
So it is TM.  That's me clobbered with a 50p rule 4
Report GLASGOWCALLING September 27, 2019 10:33 AM BST
Plenty more n/rs to come at Haycock imo,with lots of overnight rain,and more to come.!
Report GLASGOWCALLING September 27, 2019 10:35 AM BST
Haydock Grin
Report The Management September 27, 2019 10:36 AM BST
BF quite slow to remove it - allowing quite a bit of market manipulation!
Report stewarts rise September 27, 2019 11:09 AM BST
TM, perhaps you could help with my dilemma on thread i've started?
Report The Management September 27, 2019 11:29 AM BST
Hi Stewarts - those offers usually just make my head hurt! - I didn't respond because I think it all depends on a lot of variable factors like:

1) How much do you fancy it?
2) The style of running of your selection e.g. Front runner/Pace setter in sprints, I tend to bet win only (avoid ew or even place lay them if other front runners/Pace setters are in the field). That's just one example of where sometimes trying to win will screw the chances of placing (hope that makes sense). There are other examples/race make-ups where this is also the case (imo).
3) Style of running of the other horses in the field - for similar reasons to above.
4) Field size
5) What % of the book is attributable to Fav
6) Several other factors too!

I don't really do Handicaps anymore but when I did I always wanted an "angle" to theoretically give me an edge (Going, Draw, Likely Pace, Location of Pace, Lack of pace, etc, etc). I try to visualise the race and how it will be run - that would usually influence my bet options - I do firmly believe that some styles of running/race make-ups lend themselves more to EW betting and other race make-ups/running styles I would always bet win only. I tend to categorise horses/races accordingly.

Sorry that's probably no help whatsoever but I think it's very complex and although those "special" bets have a place in a punters tool box, it's all about horses for courses/circumstances of a particular race and every race falls into a certain category.
Report stewarts rise September 27, 2019 11:42 AM BST
ok, thanks TM.
Report The Management September 28, 2019 9:41 AM BST
Just looking at the fairly obvious first race at Ripon. That aside, I can't see anything much else that I like; which is a shame because (at such a short price) I would probably have liked to use it as an ew banker in some ew doubles but it looks like just Be Prepared (13:55 Ripon) today imo.
Report jonmh. September 28, 2019 10:14 AM BST
Agree TM.  If I was going to give myself a 'card' to bet on today it would be 1.55 Rip, 5.20 Rip, 2.15 MR, 1.35 Ch, 2.25 New, and 1.25 Curr.
Report The Management September 28, 2019 10:28 AM BST
Hi Jon - those are pretty much all the same races I looked at I think. All the 2/1 for Be Prepared (available when I first posted) has now gone! I may still frame some ew doubles around it but I don't like to go much shorter than 2/1. The 15:55 at Chester is a bit of a tempter (imo) but the fav is well drawn and all the alternatives are not!, plus it's a really poor contest.
Report jonmh. September 28, 2019 10:37 AM BST
It's 13/8 now so i'll either wait for a drift or leave it alone completely. The lay off and getting turned over at 2/9 LTO is also a bit off putting.
2.15 MR is starting to draw me in with the market completely dominated by the front three (15/8,2/1,2/1, 16/1 bar). A non runner throws a spanner in the works though.
Report lux September 28, 2019 9:29 PM BST
Belmont 9.43 wow cat @ 7/2 and 3/1 generally would be massively overbroke in the place (I say would as no place market available)

betfair market currently

1.25
4.7
70.0
70.0
70.0
Report jonmh. September 29, 2019 12:41 PM BST
1.50 Curragh is the only one I can see today.
Report The Management September 29, 2019 1:01 PM BST
Agreed Jon, I don't play the Irish ones very often - but My Friend Stan is a bit of a tempter (imo).

Plus there is a Handicap (13:40 Muss) - I also try to avoid the HC's but the fav is getting backed into a mind-boggling short price imo (trading at 1.35 as I type).

Will try to resist (both) I think (too late for me to do any "shopping" anyway) but will watch markets with interest.
Report The Management September 30, 2019 8:34 AM BST
Pleased to see that My Friend Stan got a place in the 13:50 at the Curragh - but the race result still serves as a timely reminder of why I rarely bet on the Irish ones! The Handicap result (13:40 Musselburgh) was a lot more interesting imo!

Nothing at all on the EW horses for me today and in the absence of any snooker - a welcome day off.
Report jonmh. September 30, 2019 11:34 AM BST
The 4.00 at Hamilton is starting to interest me. 6/5, 3/1, 100/30, 10/1 bar. Dead 8 though so will wait.
Report The Management September 30, 2019 12:18 PM BST
Hi Jon - yeah, the 16:00 at Hamilton was the only race that briefly caught my eye. I was most attracted to the (very exposed!) Ventura Flame purely because of the Heavy going. I decided there were too many "lurkers" even all the way down to the stable companion Funky Dunky at 40/1!.

The ground will surely influence the outcome (imo), so I suppose (having looked at it again) - I would be happy to bet VF ew at 7/2 BOG (with PP) but as you point out, we need all 8 to run so taking an early price is not really an option - the usual dilemma! GL mate.
Report The Management September 30, 2019 4:35 PM BST
Jon I am gonna unashamedly after-time! (hopefully people know my M.O. on this thread well enough and coupled with my 12:18 post I don't feel too guilty/ashamed about commenting AFTER the race).

I wouldn't have bet on the 16:00 race at all or even looked at the race any further without your 11:34am post (pointing out the first NR) so the thread has paid me a dividend (at last!) and I owe you one for making me look again at the race - I very sincerely hope you were on it yourself - Thank You!

I took some 4.30 and a lot of 4.40 on here about Ventura Flame in the Each Way for THREE places market (while there were still 8 runners - I did it on here to insure still 3 places if any more NR's). After the deduction I ended up with about 4.09 (Average) minus commission which (obviously now) seems very generous given that I still had THREE places to gun for.

Not sure the best horse won the race to honest - but it was very clearly the best horse on todays going!

btw - Funky Dunky ran in to 4th at 40/1 Wink
Report jonmh. September 30, 2019 6:34 PM BST
TM glad you were on. I got to the shop and saw there was only seven runners so i did what I sometimes do and dutched the second and third in against the fav. It worked out at around 10/11 the pair coupled so I got away with it.
Report jonmh. October 1, 2019 10:05 AM BST
A few might be of interest today.
2.30 Sed 2/7, 5/2, 20/1 bar. only 2 places.
4.05 Cork 5/6, 7/2, 9/1 bar
6.40 Kemp 10/11, 11/4, 13/2, 11/1 bar.

I'm also going to monitor the markets on the 6.10 at Kemp and 5.05 at Cork.
Report The Management October 1, 2019 10:35 AM BST
Morning Jon! - thanks again for pointing out the NR in the 16:00 yesterday - I'm pleased to hear that you benefited too. The race must have made very pleasant viewing for you, being on both of the two that pretty much had the race to themselves.

I'm running a bit behind today, I can't see any total "stand outs/classic filth" - but looking at the same 5 or 6 races as you, with a view to maybe doing some small stake scatter-gun ew singles and very speculative tiny stake ew multiples. It doesn't look like a day for big stakes (imo) but will come back with some thoughts shortly/later. GL all.
Report jonmh. October 1, 2019 10:44 AM BST
Morning TM

I was quite keen on Hazran in the 4.05 at Cork (i know the Irish isn't for you) but it's been pulled out making the fav shorten to 4/7.  It's only served to muddy the waters though as the competition for the three places has become tighter.

I'll probably back Lord Roccoco against the fav in the novice hurdle at Sedgefield and play a waiting game with Kempton tonight.

Good luck with your bets today.
Report The Management October 1, 2019 11:59 AM BST
Hi Jon - I can't argue with that! - I spent way too long looking at the Handicaps at Ayr (I don't play them often but I do like a soft ground handicap at the end of the season!) although that's not for this thread.

For this thread - I have now discarded as too hard (imo) and/or too Irish - the 14:05, 16:05, 16:10 and 17:05.

I think that leaves me with exactly the same as you - the 14:30 at Sedgefield, plus the 18:10 & 18:40 at Kempton. But I am also still trying to find an angle into the 14:50 at Ayr (based on the ground/going) and intend to watch more replays. Current thoughts as follows:

14:30: Lord Roccocco - Not keen on only 2 places and missed the early 3/1 - but at 11/4 or better (quarter odds 2 places) it looks a speculative small stake ew single imo.
14:50: Looks like way too many "lurkers" (FTO or lightly raced potential improvers) but still looking for a soft ground based play (possibly looking too hard!) and will keep watching replays for now.
18:10: Miss Paxman's current market graph looks like a set of stairs (going up!), it's currently friendless and there are a lot of "lurkers" but at the prices, I might consider forgiving her latest run and putting my faith in the Blinkers - will watch market and wait.
18:40: Quite a few "lurkers" and the yard doesn't have a track record for doing me any favours - but Overpriced Mixer looks a possible play. Would want BOG as stable runners seem to either attract heavy support or drift heavily (imo). Will watch market and wait.

Definitive and Incisive as ever Blush - but I always reserve the right to change my mind based on prices and/or NR's on days (like this) when nothing really stands out! GL all - the slow drip fills the bucket! (tiny stakes advised).
Report The Management October 1, 2019 2:20 PM BST
A quick update (to avoid after-timing!). All small stakes!

14:30: Took a chance on no further NR's - bet Lord Roccocco ew at 11/4 (not BOG).
14:50: Gave up eventually! Concluded just not enough to go an and too many "lurkers"!
18:10: Still watching (the admittedly badly drawn) Miss Paxman drifting like a barge! - watch and wait.
18:40: Still like Overpriced Mixer but as stated before, I don't like the yard, so - watch and wait.
Report The Management October 1, 2019 6:06 PM BST
18:10 Kempton - Update...

I have got a bit carried away as the market seems all wrong to me.

Done Miss Paxman small EW (despite the draw, the trip and the headgear!) at about 7/1

I have had even smaller EW's on both Valetta & Trecco bay - each at around 14/1

Not what I intended (at all!) but happy to throw a few quid at an odd (imo) market. GL all.
Report The Management October 1, 2019 6:21 PM BST
Hmmm! Market correct, Management hopelessly wrong!

Would have been better if they couldn't have got Miss Paxman into the stalls.
Trecco Bay does a poor imitation of arazi and Valetta only partially saves the day.
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 1, 2019 6:26 PM BST
Still think OverpricedMixerr a fair bet..
Report The Management October 1, 2019 6:37 PM BST
I'm going to swerve the 18:40 at Kempton - That should give all you Osborne backers a chance!

Both the races I have played ew today (14:30 & 18:10) have yielded a loss.

A couple of the Irish races that I very shrewdly chose to avoid (16:05 & 17:05) would have worked out quite well! - had I chosen not to avoid them!Blush
GL all.
Report The Management October 1, 2019 6:42 PM BST
Hi skip - I don't like the stable - but using the market as a guide it looks hopeful. I have missed the boat on the price, so no play. GL mate.
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 1, 2019 6:56 PM BST
Cheers..... Needed that...
Report The Management October 1, 2019 7:05 PM BST
Well done! - I could have done with it too but deciding not to do it, pretty much sums up my day!
Catch up with you soon. GL.
Report jonmh. October 2, 2019 9:23 AM BST
Morning all.  The Osborne horse and a bit of luck in Ireland gave me a profit yesterday. Much needed as there hadn't been any of note since last Tuesday.

2.35 Hunt - Interested in Carry On but once again it's the dead 8.
5.40 Kemp - Joint favs at 5/4.  Id be interested if either drift.
6.55 Newc - 2/5 fav but the 2nd and 3rd in are unraced.  I'll probably play both to tiny stakes.

Can't see much else.
Report The Management October 2, 2019 11:22 AM BST
Morning Jon.

The Irish stuff worked out very well indeed yesterday (annoyingly!) - but I just don't trust the markets or my ability to judge them over there! 

Such a pity because so many races over there have a great betting shape to them.

Yesterday was a bit exceptional (imo), The winner of the 16:05 (would have been my filthy ew play in my cavalier days gone by) so it drifts from 6/1 Second Favourite out to a friendless 10/1 (20/1+ on BF win market!) and then wins quite nicely! Similar story in the 17:05, the winner (which would have been my filthy ew selection in my braver days gone by) opens at 7/2 clear second fav, drifts out to 6/1 and wins nicely too! Doh!
I just don't have the confidence (from experience) to play the Irish races in (decent stake) ew singles - and similar races have ruined many a decent multiple for me over the years. So yesterday was a bit painful to watch! Glad you played though.

Probably wrestling with the same 3 races as you today. Still contemplating. GL.
Report The Management October 2, 2019 2:36 PM BST
Wow! 14:15 & 14:25 both turned pretty filthy! Laugh

In order to give it a better chance, I have reduced my stake (laid some back at a shorter price!) on Carry On. Filthy arber!
Report The Management October 2, 2019 2:48 PM BST
Hmm - need a new system, reducing stakes usually results in a winner!
Report sofiakenny October 2, 2019 2:55 PM BST
wd management.Happy
Report The Management October 3, 2019 2:41 PM BST
14:45 Lingfield - Despite thinking the Gosden horse (Sheriffmuir) might win by a street - I have backed (ew) both Almahha (6/1) and Imhotep (5/1 & 11/2). What could possibly go wrong!
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 4, 2019 4:47 AM BST
Think Poseidon could be a fair bet 2-40 Gowran... The front 2 in the betting looking dodge pot's
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 4, 2019 1:02 PM BST
I also like Miss Cognac in the 2-05......think she might be the strongest stayer out of the 3 "runners".
Report jonmh. October 5, 2019 9:52 AM BST
Shut the box 4.05 font
keep an eye on 7.00 at wolv.  Dead 8.
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 6, 2019 10:35 AM BST
DeFutures Bright.... has excellent point form and looks a cracking bet in the 2nd at Uttoxeter, as does Madeira Mist in the last...
Report stewarts rise October 6, 2019 1:07 PM BST
1.45 Kelso-Wilhelm Vonvenster
2.10 Uttox-Tingo in the Tale/Just Marvin
2.30 Tipp-Imaging/Yulong Gold Fairy
5.20 Uttox-Potters Venture.
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 7, 2019 2:11 PM BST
Blimey yesterday was expensive......... Hopefully Donald Mccain and Brian Hughes can do the business for me in the first at Stratford.....
Report jonmh. October 8, 2019 10:46 AM BST
7.10 Chelmsford looks the best race today. 16/1 bar the front three.
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 13, 2019 10:55 AM BST
Gatwick Kitten a stonking bet in the first..
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 17, 2019 10:39 AM BST
Some lovely races today...
Report The Management October 17, 2019 12:38 PM BST
I'm still not doing the Irish ones Skip! Cry
Report skiptoomaloumacari October 17, 2019 2:34 PM BST
Don't blame you did Nebuchadnezzar... At Wincanton and i am doing Informed Front 5-45 wolves..
Report The Management October 17, 2019 3:07 PM BST
Hi Skip - I really struggled with the 17:45.

Your selection does look the most sensible choice to play. I was really very taken with Perfect Number first time out and (if you can forgive an admittedly very disappointing run afterwards - I am usually willing to forgive any horse a poor showing at Newcastle), I think she might be a solid place only bet (at the prices) - especially if they go mad short on any/all of the front three in the market.

Can't say I'd fancy her to win and I already have some place money running on, so probably won't get involved further - so that gives her every chance! Wink
Report skiptoomaloumacari November 28, 2019 3:06 PM GMT
take it we were ALL on Transition.......::::::::
Report The Management November 28, 2019 3:16 PM GMT
Love Hi Skip - was a bit of a classic wasn't it! - Horse bets have been few and far between but managed to talk myself into that one!

Like the AW but missing the flat already! Cry
Report The Management December 3, 2019 4:55 PM GMT
16:45 Wolves - another classic (in terms of Market Shape) Love
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