First time cheek-pieces wins the 16:20 at Brighton (Kennocha) at 15.50 BSP while I was typing the above...

Gutting to be done by a 66/1 shot....

Morning all,

I can't say I'm not a tiny bit gutted about the 20:30 last night (it would have been quite a return because I was a very bad lad and over-bet the MJ horse quite heavily - the more it drifted - the more I had on - and boy did it ever drift!!). It was totally friendless in all the markets. On the BF EW market I took a little bit of 6.40 initially and was very happy with that! Then I took a little 7.40/7.60, then some 8.40/8.60 and then 9.40/9.60!! I didn't get any of the 10.00 or 11.00 because although (unlike most) I do trust the stable, I had a few alarm bells ringing by then!! So I was glad to see it adjust downwards (a little bit) before the off! I did similar (chased out a price that looked VERY wrong to me) in the place only and the 4 place market. So I did ok.

I didn't lay anything off (idiot with hindsight as it went to 1.06 in-running), and i am gutted to have got passed on the inside (!!) by a 66/1 (146 BfSP) shot in the shadow of the post. In summary I ended up almost treble staked on something I originally intended to bet to half my normal ew single stake. So mixed emotions - disappointed in myself for getting too involved (thought those days were behind me) - some relief, in that it could have been much worse for me (over-staked on a massive drifter!)- but obviously it was very, very close to a really very decent pay, so primarily I still just feel a bit robbed despite an ok return.

I take comfort/consolation in that I got two things very right imo (which when combined are the foundation of many good ew bets imo):

1) I thought the odd-on fav wasn't bulletproof and was way too short - once raced, finished second to a good horse (but in a really very slowly run race), the winner of that race won so easily it was a joke and something/anything had to come second to it. Even the racing post write up used the word "flattered". Obviously it didn't achieve a meaningful rating from just the one run but on all the ratings that i respect it achieved very little and hadn't done anywhere near enough to be odds-on in a maiden racing on an artificial surface for the first time.
2) My EW selection against it (Wadacre Galoubet) is clearly no world beater but (because both it's previous races were in filthy each way races where I had bet on other runners!) I had watched replays of it's previous runs many times. First time out it was a baby - missed the break, pulled, looked to have a mind of his own, etc. But second time out I marked it down as (although possibly one paced) a likely big improver. I couldn't have the Balding filly Badessa (FTO) because although they can win FTO I mentally consider his to come on a tonne for the first run. I was also conscious it might be too short due to money running-on to the Jockey (already ridden 3 winners). Then despite their (big time bandits in my mind) credentials I couldn't have the Kelleway trained, Kelly ridden Star Talent even in new head-gear. That didn't leave much else to worry about (so I thought anyway!!).

Oh well - onwards and upwards. The slow drip fills the bucket! - Here endeth my after-timing rant for the day!

16.25??

Will leave it out..I do not trust Charlie Appleby stable..best of luck if you play!

Well done lads!

The Management09 Sep 19 16:24Joined: 27 Dec 00 | Topic/replies: 1,396 | Blogger: The Management's blog
Well ditched sttlm - I struggle to play with any confidence in claimers and sellers - I always take a keen interest in first time headgear in that type of (low grade) race though.

It wasn't a bet for me but the First Time blinkered Osborne Horse (Twittering) wins the Seller (15:20) at Leicester - 14/1 Industry SP .

Cotton End is obvious I know but looks really solid at Worcs..

praying they all stay in at 7.00k

yep..thats where I was working when I joined in 2005.

Stewarts - no worries - I always have a look at your picks with interest.

I presume the "Andrew" reference (above) ^ is a typo/wrong thread? - I used to do a bit of short priced laying (I prefer to bet ew against them these days) but i'm not Andrew. You wouldn't wanna fly on anything that I had worked on!

My current view of the day is that as well as a couple of ew singles I would like to do an ew acc and maybe even some permed ew accs! However the day seem to revolve (imo) around a couple of 8 runner races that have a 5 hour gap between them - so anything other than singles closer to the off time seems a bit risky to decent stakes. Also the ew acca would involve including Listowel and that makes me reluctant too!

13:40 Carlisle - Market has nice shape but too many FTO lurkers & lightly raced possible improvers imo - Pass.

13:55 Listowel - Really does look a 3 horse race (famous last words in Ireland imo! & the Bolger horse could be something/anything. - Still conflicted but very tempted to do each way both Sheckhem & Maker of Kings if it looks likely all 8 will run.

14:40 Uttox - Lovely market shape, contemplating each ways on both Champagne Mist and Cotswold Prince. The former looks more likely to have a win shout at shorter odds. CM looks exposed/ordinary but it's a very uncompetitive race, so looks a bet to nothing at the prices with vague hope that a Tongue Tie and extra half mile might coax improvement??

19:00 Kemp - Finding this so hard! Fav looks a bit bulletproof to be fair and if that were to leave the other 3 fighting for 2 places I wouldn't wanna bet my life on any of them! And that is all assuming no NR in the next 7 hours (or at the stalls entry!). Of the 3, I'm equally divided - Persuer (Could be anything and why the long break?), Royal Family (is too big to lay but has the profile I would like to lay at a short price - looks over-rated and flattered imo but this race is potentially so poor bar the fav that it could still be good enough! Elegant Love has a horrid profile too - so slightly worried I fancy (ew) a horse rated just 64. Help!!

Will try to clarify some of that pre-racing but any other views/opinions really appreciated today folks!

That 2.40 looks pretty stonewall as well, just have to wonder if the 2nd fav Champagne West will last out 2 1/2m if he pulls hard again.
Would think that 4 EW of trebles with Shekhem, Champagne Mist/Cotswald Prince and Jaxlight/Just Marvin should make a winning return.

Hope so TM, did the EW doubles as well so in for a right few quid if one of them wins, hope it's the bigger priced one now!
Did you do the other 2 winners Ew?

Nice! - good luck mate.

Yes - did I both the winners 5/2 and 9/4 (mostly) and both the 3rd's - so it's been a good day - just being greedy really but the 19:00 has broken my head!

ul stewart - still a nice bet/return though. Well done.

Won just over 50% of stake, but so close to a big payday!
Can't help with 7.00K, i'm out tonight and haven't looked, good luck TM!

Where were you at Midday when I needed that kind of direction ffs! - Just kidding - GL Kenny - the race has given me "dartitus" (RIP Eric Bristow) - I just can't do any of them.

It's not often I would say Frankie is one to back each way .....but I have to admit I think dame mailiot is a good bet in the Park Hill..

playing 1.55 and 4.15.