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bad each way races - bookmakers
bad each way races - bookmakers
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Hi Stewart - yes absolutely - in an ideal world filthy ew doubles/trebles and acca's are absolutely the way to go - especially nowadays with the potential to use BF to hedge/part hedge/cash-out/just hedge the win/just hedge the place/stop at a winner/bet each way kind of almost equally divided/ bet each way but not unequally divided/, etc, etc, etc. The options are terrific and have never been so plentiful - sometimes it's genuinely quite hard to know what to do for the best on those days - but if only there were more days where a (probably very overly selective) punter like myself could find sufficient selections for some multis to bring all of those options into play!
I actually (for various reasons) find it best to treat the singles separately (with an unforgiving approach to selectivity) but I will still sometimes (depending on the chronological make-up of the day) play the multis a bit more speculatively and I sometimes include in a multi selections I have already rejected as a single! Regarding the singles and the place losses that can add up during baron spells - it can be deflating and it's not a game for impatient people (or chasers as I call them!) - but I will take a little run of those small place losses gladly if it doesn't include any unplaced selections! (those are what hurt the most - both psychologically and financially imo). I'll take a run of 3/1's and 7/2's all getting beaten by a head into 2nd in my stride. It's the ones that finish fourth that will kill you (in the long run imo!). Ditto you have to stay grounded with the winners - sometimes they come along like buses too in runs of 3, 4 and 5 and you feel invincible but feeling invincible (even briefly) can be very dangerous too imo!. If I filters my results by criteria to analyse them (by race type, turf/AW, Going, Jumps/Flat, Grade, etc, etc) - it's sometimes quite revealing - but filtering by price is always the most interesting! As you would expect the shorter the ISP, the more often they win so obviously 2/1's through to 5/2's win more often - but it is also my most profitable win ISP range - and it's also my most profitable place price range. Filtering my selections/results has historically thrown up a few surprises (to me) that have then influenced my future approach. The problem with the price data is comparing like with like and knowing what to use - the ISP is meaningless because I very rarely bet at ISP - you might (exceptionally) get double the ISP at Early Prices; ISP is equally meaningless if you took much shorter than ISP early on. Price is everything - so I tend to use "average price secured" when analysing my performance - and recognise that even that can still be misleading. On a disheartening run of maybe 6 placed only horses in a row (it can and does happen - technically it's actually what is "supposed to happen") - securing 9/2 (somewhere/anywhere) rather than 7/2 (SP) will help! - and I would hope that if a few of those had run on the same day I might have got my win single stake back anyway via some multis. This is (I promise) my last wordy post for a bit, because while, it's good to talk with you, facts, kenny etc - since I "hijacked" the thread - geoff_m, pete_d, Dave1357 and SkiptoLouMacari (+ possibly others that seemed to know their stuff on this topic) have all stopped posting. Will keep it more brief here on in! GL all. |
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ayedo - thanks for feedback (assuming it was partially for me!).
Sofia Kenny - Good luck with yours at 20:45 - your ew 1,2,3,4 selections actually do look pretty damn filthy to me!! (for a handicap anyway  ).It's rapidly approaching shop time for me if playing today! So quick update before departure: 16:40 Catt - Will pass - although market has developed a fairly clear 2nd fav (at time of writing). 17:25 Sals - Probably ditto - clear 2nd fav in the FTO Stoute horse but still too many potential "lurkers" (FTO or potential improvers) for an ew single imo. 17:35 Good - No change - want Cadre to shorten so others can lengthen but will probably do both Cape Cavalli and Look Closely as EW singles 18:00 Sals - Will pass - Second fav starting to emerge but again too many unraced/FTO "lurkers" for my liking. 18:15 Kemp - Will pass - only 2 places to play for and maybe even 3.50 horses capable of battling for them! Will be back later with an update (and to after-time my bad luck!). GL if you play. |
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Also meant to say - I can't back her because she always loses when I do and we are at the stage of the tournament where she often puts in a shocker - but Jo Konta looks too big now on here at 3.00 (2/1) versus 1.50 (1/2) Svitolina.
I will give the girl a chance by not burdening her with my money - but C'mon Jo Konta! |
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The Management please dont feel youve hijacked the thread.
I read your posts with interest even if i dont reply. Its an approach i use as the cornerstone of my betting due to the basic maths of the overbroke situation of the place market Keep posting. |
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Pity they dont come along to often like the following race:
14:10 Leicester 24 May 2004 Maiden Stakes (3yo only) Winner £5,551 - 8 ran 1m 3f 183y Good to Firm Pos. Dist Beaten Horse SP 1 6 NEW MORNING (IRE) (6) P Robinson M A Jarvis 1/16 2 11 1 DEVITO (FR) (7) V Slattery A King 66/1 3 1¾ 2 GREAT GIDDING (8) S J Drowne H Morrison 50/1 4 1 3 GREEK STAR (4) P Makin K A Morgan 25/1 5 14 5 KEDROSS (IRE) (1) O Urbina J Jay 50/1 6 1¼ 8 SOVEREIGN GIRL (5) S Sanders B N Doran 150/1 7 7 4 TOUT LES SOUS (2) S W Kelly Jean-Rene Auvray 150/1 8 shd 7 SES SELINE (3) Paul Eddery John A Harris 66/1 One of the great e/way thieving races. Amazed 1 didnt get pulled/brown envelope  |
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I've done Red Stripes EW 1st 4 at 15/2 5.40 Catt.
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Well done TM 1st and 2nd!
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Forecast - wow
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I haven't been touring betting shops since 16:30 (honestly!), I ended up going out for the evening! Some observations:
To the Handicap players: Stewart - well done with Red Stripes at 17:40 (1st 4 places at 15/2 each way) placing 3rd beaten a head and a neck! Kenny - I see you got one of your 18:45 each way pair (It's how we roll) placed 2nd 8/1 (ISP) but gutted to see it got beat by a neck and traded at 1.03 in play - seems you hit the crossbar! Shirl_the_girl - I don't do forecasts but always very pleased if doing 2 ew in the same race to come away with 1st & 2nd! It's not something I do frequently (or take lightly) because you really do need the winner or both to be placed - but it looked appropriate here and obviously it worked out ok! I hoped the fav might be shorter (odds-on) and my pair therefore longer in the betting but I thought the fav might struggle to give my pair 7lbs and that the winner looked the sort to maybe benefit from the first time visor (replacing the first time cheek-pieces) - but (without having yet watched any replays) my real-time impression of the race was actually that the fav ran a very strange race indeed and/or got a very strange ride! Anyway I hope you were on in some way, shape or form! geoff m - Thanks for the feedback - glad somebody is reading! - and very pleased to hear from somebody that takes the same approach. I do actually have a recollection of that Leicester race from 2004 (It's the kind of race you remember! and I was pretty active each way back then!) but my primary memory is that I really didn't expect all 8 to run and I couldn't bet on it early for fear of a NR and couldn't be around closer to race time due to a work commitment!  - That all 8 came under orders is still the most unbelievable thing about that race imo!! I have a funny (imo) story about a hurdles race with a few more runners but a very similar betting shape to that Leicester race iirc - I'm a bit hazy on the exact detail (can't find it atm) so it will sound like a bit of an after-time but i will tell it some time when it's not so late. Will do a review of yesterday (Tuesday) and a preview of tomorrow (Wednesday) in the morning - I don't think the preview will take long - looks like a non-event tomorrow (at first glance) - could be a lawn-mowing day! Input from any other EW thieves very welcomed. The slow drip fills the bucket! GL all. |
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Hi all I'm back just been away for a few days..... (if wondered where I'd been!!!)... Good to see this thread thriving!!!
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Hi skiptoomaloumacari (et al) - I'm glad you are back - I used to see Lou from time to time in the shops on my work travels way back in the day - Swindon!
Nothing at all form me today on the FEW (Filthy Each Way) front - it didn't look good at a first glance (late last night) and it is often the case that if I can't see anything potential very quickly it's not usually there imo! - Could have hoped the unraced Gosden horse in the 17:45 Chelmsford would be very short to maybe make the market for others but to be honest even that would have felt a bit "manufactured" (contrived) and that's a slippery slope imo. They need to leap off the page! The 14:10 at Southwell looked possible but it's not for me, same with the 14:30 at Bath and the 19:45 at Chelmsford - just nothing in those 3 races that is quite clear cut enough to be playing for just 2 places imo. |
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Nothing at all form me today
Is that a deliberate Faux Pas TM? |
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Hi Stewart - i'd love to say it was deliberate but it's just the result of a late night and dirty reading glasses!
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Done the preview - so now here's the review:
Yesterday was rewarding (results wise) but from my point of view, it was actually more pleasing that my (possibly overly!) selective approach didn't result in me discarding a load of winners! - I was getting a bit irritated at mentioning the possible races, not betting (on what I would call the speculative, cavalier or scatter-gun selection) and then watching them go off 2nd fav and beating the odds on fav race after race! - or watching them all place without having done any cheeky multiples! I am pretty selective because I know (long term) that the ones I don't bet are an equally important element of the game - the speculative ones can be a slippery slope - but it can be frustrating in the short term sitting on your hands if all your "speculative possibles" are winning or running well! Review of Yesterday's potential/actual bets (Tuesday): 16:40 Muss - The market shape made this race a tempter to bet ew against the 8/13 fav - but as stated pre-race - I don't really want to play Handicaps (at all or) on this FEW thread because my confidence level will never be as high as it is in non-handicaps. Though I don't have hard and fast rules - so maybe if we get a 1/3 fav that doesn't look bomb-proof who knows! I might still include the odd Handicap in small stake speculative Filthy Each Way multiples but otherwise it will likely be a pass nine times out of ten on this thread. 17:25 Sals - A clear second fav emerged (The Meehan horse Raaeq - not the Stoute horse I mentioned as he didn't even have a runner in this race!) 2nd fav Meehan horse eventually went off at 3/1 ISP and finished 2nd to the 6/4 fav. So the cavalier/speculative/scattergun bet came 2nd but as stated pre-race there were just too many potential "lurkers" (FTO or potential improvers) for an ew single imo and although I sometimes do it, I'm not overly keen on having a selection that is First Time Out (FTO) itself in singles or in multis. 17:35 Good - Still very pleased to have each way backed both the winner Cape Cavalli (took show price of 5/2 which was also the final ISP) and the second horse Look Closely (took mostly 7/2 - as missed 4/1 while hoping for 9/2!) - but having now watched the replay a few times - I stand by my initial view from watching the race live - I may have benefited from the fav running a very strange race under a rather strange ride! Nevertheless it's nice to have the 2 selections battling it out for first and second with a nice gap back to the rest (even if I would have slightly preferred the 2nd to win from a returns perspective)! 18:00 Sals - This race did have a FTO Stoute horse! - it went off 6/1 (ISP) clear second fav and finished a very clear 2nd (it went 1.55 In Running i think) to the 5/6 fav. So again the cavalier/specualtive/scattergun bet came 2nd but again as stated pre-race there were just too many potential "lurkers" (FTO or potential improvers) for an ew single imo, plus not keen on having a selection that is First Time Out (FTO) itself in singles or in multis. 18:15 Kemp - Feeling a bit smug about this one! Despite a nice short (8/15 ISP) fav - I felt the places were possibly up for grabs to a few horses, so left it well alone (no singles or multis) and that looks to have been a good decision. Short version: Backed 2 horses each way (in the same race for equal stakes). Result: 1st at 5/2 (ISP and price taken) and 2nd at 3/1 (ISP but mostly got 7/2) |
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2.40 Southwell. Have backed Naasik EW 11/2 1st 4 (1/5), really don't expect it to win as think the Fav looks a good thing, but as a filthy EW bet fits the part imo.
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3.35 Gowran, 5.45 Chelmsford
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Hi stewart - it pains me to say anything positive about betting ew in run of the mill, everyday (low grade) handicaps! - but if you keep getting an each-way (First 4 places) price in line with the each-way (First 3 places) price - fair play to you imo! - GL.
Hi jonmh! - thanks for posting, I feel a bit humbled/honoured that it's only your 2nd post in nearly 20 years! - I was a very infrequent poster myself but wasted about 1200 posts defending the honour of my beloved Jo Konta (or more accurately arguing about her mental fortitude or lack thereof!) - she obviously didn't appreciate it as still waiting for her to pay me back!  No hard and fast rules here (because I sometimes do the Group 1's if sufficiently filthy) but other than that I just can't do the Irish (15:35 at Gowran)- I find it frustrating that so many of the races there have a market shape that I really like but experience (and my wallet) tell me it's just not for me! I looked at the 17:45 Chelmsford (it was my sole hope for the day) but it still looks too "competitive" for a wuss like me. Would totally understand if you don't want to elaborate (so no offence taken if you don't reply/expand) - but curious as to what is your MO? - Do you back only, Lay off the win, trade/arb, do multiples? - either way thanks for putting some races up. GL |
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Hello TM. I’ve been doing this for a while. I’m a dinosaur so very simple MO. Non handicaps, 3 places, a maximum of four in the market under 10/1and simply focus on the second and/or third fav. I used to be a lot more selective than I am now but I was missing many decent places and winners that I more or less ditched my form study and let the market guide me for better or worse.
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Hi Jonmh - it's good to hear from a fellow dinosaur! I used to think I was a trailblazer but those days are gone for sure!
I like the sound of what you do - simple is good and I like that identifying potential plays is very quick - but rightly or wrongly I am too OCD/pedantic to not explore/investigate quite thoroughly once I have found a likely race. I totally get the non-handicaps only and 8+ runners as I really like to have the 3rd place too, I see it as a "safety net". But I know I also get a good share/ratio of my winners from the 5, 6, and 7 runner races. My theory is that the smaller the field, the more likely it won't be a truly run race! - So a race with maybe a 2/7 fav, a 3/1 second fav plus 3, 4 or 5 rags (imo rags anyway!) over a middle distance can look a bit futile on paper but if you get an arrogant/braindead jockey (plenty about!) on the fav, they might actually only end up "racing" properly for the last few furlongs which makes it a completely different proposition in my view! - (I fancy I could beat Usain Bolt myself - providing it was over 2 yards and he wasn't paying attention when I started!). Sometimes they win on merit (true run race) but I hope for a false/slow pace and if you study times, the fewer runners there are the more likely that will happen imo! So I play the 5-7 runner races when it suits me and I actually find the loss of the 3rd place "safety-net" is quite motivational in terms of keeping me very selective/focused when only 2 places are available. Good to here from you - please keep posting - or should I say start posting! Cheers. |
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Hi Chaps
Always find these threads interesting not least because i'm over 25yrs into this type of strategy , went solo punting in 2007 and not regretted the decision at all over the last 12yrs. My strategical approach is not dissimilar to previous comments but like a couple of others on here i'm pretty cautious and if borderline i'd rather have a no bet day than risk the strike rate , never have trouble getting on these days unlike many others as i set up a 5 strong trustworthy syndicate before giving up work which enables me to place the sneaky ones around the country and under any radar. Basic rules are Maths / Shape / Exposed form / non handicaps only / 3 places & a couple of other snippets before placing bets , occasionally go with 6-7 runners fields if the criteria fits but even though i place bets as near to the first off time as possible i rarely go 5 runner races with the danger of a withdrawal which practically kills the bet from shrewd to mug. Do play singles under the right circumstance but prefer the acca in general with the opportunity to compound the over broke as opposed to the mug bet of compounding the over round. The Maths / Shape / Exposed are all of pretty equal importance to me , the first two are pretty obvious to everyone involved but the Exposed is a big criteria so never include debutantes or very unexposed types with maybe only one previous run as the fact horses have had only one or maybe no previous runs is a great leveller for me and with this strategy one thing you don't want is a leveller and much more preferable to have everything happening on its own merits , hence the exclusion of Novice Chases for me. Bad e/way isn't the only strategy i use but that said has played a significant part of becoming a successful sole trader and have been fortunate enough to have a successful win part coming up trumps several times along the journey which was a welcome long term boost , that said though my spreadsheet confirms the strategy profitable excluding the win part beanos so i would encourage anyone using this long term strategy to select with the place in mind not the win and that way the mathematics will take care of the main goal and any win part acca's will be the huge cherry on top , but when that happens it happens so can't be planned for. Good luck to all & remember patience is a virtue. |
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Morning all...2.20 Haydock looks a runner as does 2.50..5.40 ..will hold fire a bit.
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2.20 Haycock - looks good but can’t split second, third and fourth favs.
2.50 Haydock - Panic Room looks the one but a non runner would screw things up 5.40 Chelmsford - The market would point to Second Love. This looks a bit more competitive. 2.40 Salisbury - market his heavily dominated by the front three in the betting. I’m finding it hard to split them 4.25 Clonmel - My Midnight looks like the one against the fav if you can forgive the lay off 5.00 Clonmel - hard to split first and second favs at morning prices 7.30 Clonmel - not the type of race I’d usually get involved in but the market points towards Jazz toes |
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Doing an each way trixie today.... MAMBO NIGHT 2-40SAL, MY MIDNIGHT 4=25 CLON and BATTLE OF PARADISE 7-40CHELMSFORD......
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Morning all! - Kenny, I'm a bit behind and still looking but at a glance the 14:20 and 17:40 might be too competitive (place wise) for an overly selective wuus like me! Will come back later with some thoughts if time permits (I'm running way late today!).
Hi Hayden - great to hear from you, the 25/12 years are eerily similar to me, though you sound much more organised/professional and possibly even more selective than me. I do have some people that help me get on (from time to time) but rarely bother with them these days. To call them a syndicate would be pushing it to the extreme! - they are more like a cross between the cast of Last of the Summer Wine and Shameless (I think one of them lives in a skip!). On the up side I think the shops he covers are too scared to knock him back! - on the down side I don't sleep well if he has my money overnight! I'v exaggerated that a little - but you get my drift - one of them doesn't posses a mobile phone! - so they're not quite Oceans Eleven! I rarely do novice chases either (but in recent years it's almost like they are restricted to 3/4 runners anyway!) - so that takes care of automatically excluding the vast majority of them! I love my multis/accas on the rare occasions that the race planners permit them! - like you, I'm happy to mentally/financially write off the win part from the outset (or treat it as a bonus) when doing multis/accas but will often take my win stake back if the chronology of the bet makes it possible. Again unless the dead 5 or dead 8 runner race is the first leg, it's frustrating and risky/difficult to include them in multis. Even if they are the first leg, fear of a NR may leave me stuck with SP/Show price as opposed to the (usually better) early price. I still have my days but a combination of very disciplined selectivity and the "safety first" approach to 5 and 8 horse races means that the "full-on" (decent stake) multi days are less frequent than I would like. So I tend to play the singles in a very disciplined/selective way - but be a bit more speculative on the multis/accas (especially if I have what I consider a "place banker" to include). Totally with you on the Exposed issue - First time out/once raced etc but I try to play that to my advantage where possible. Gotta dash - speak again - I hope! |
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I have looked at 10 races now (including Clonmel - which I wouldn't do anyway!) and nothing absolutely leaps of the page! I pretty much completely agree with you Johnmh. There are too many "if's and but's" everywhere, making nothing totally clear cut enough for me in most races. Though I still want to look at a couple of them in more depth.
I have to pop out now (not to any LBO's!) - but will try to post a very brief view of each race before racing. The bottom line is that while I like to really explore EVERY angle once I have identified a very likely race to play in - the approach that has stood the test of time for me, is that if I can't spot the likely/potential races & selections almost instantaneously - then they probably aren't there! Manufacturing/constructing them when they aren't there is the ultimate sin imo. That is how I feel about today at the moment. It's boring I know but it's more profitable to pass in my experience! Part of the edge we have as bettors is that we don't always have to play! GL to all that do play. |
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Races I thought were worth looking at today (based on last nights initial peek) and my current view having looked again today:
13:50 Hay - Only 2 places available - so wouldn't want to bet my life (or my money!) on who will fill them or in what exact order. Pass. 14:20 Hay - Betting looked ok - but too many potentially unexposed "lurkers" (once raced possible improvers or First Time Outers from ok yards). Pass. 14:40 Sal - Looks a 3 horse race (on very limited form) but cant split them (easily) and also too many First Time Outers from ok yards. Pass. 14:50 Hay - Revolves around FTO Gosden horse - Looks potentially ok (ew Panic Room). Subject to prices and 8 actually running!. Wait and watch for now. 15:10 Sal - Thought the Bin Suroor horse might be very short (odds-on). It's not! - and too many "lurkers" anyway. Pass 16:25 Clo - Liked the market shape (for ew My Midnight) but it's Clonmel! Pass. 17:00 Clo - Not sure now why I even looked at this! + It's Clonmel! Pass. 17:20 Lin - Too competitive - too many possible placers for the places available. Pass. 17:40 Che - Looks a possible play (ew Second Love) but very much subject to prices and 8 runners making it out of the stalls! Wait and watch for now. 19:40 Che - Kinda like this as a likely 2 horse race, so Battle of Paradise was an ew tempter - but everything has a price - it looks too short considering only 2 places available. Pass (unless market alters dramatically). Probably could have discarded most of them last night to be fair! - but that's how I approached the day. Really just 3 (or really two and a half!) possible races imo but all very dependant on prices and NR's - so its' the usual "catch 22" for me with the two 8 horse races. Any likely bets would need to be last minute/second to confident all 8 race - but that rules out both taking early prices and getting much on! such is life. GL all. |
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I’m not in a position to keep an eye on things today so I’ve played the following to small ew singles with an acca and ew d and t’s split between day and night.
2.20 Hay Oakensshield 2.50 Hay Panic Room 2.40 Chelm Shandoz 4.25 Clon My Midnight 5.00 Clon Mooltazem 5.40 Chelm Second Love 7.30 Clon Jazz Toes Fingers crossed there’s no nrs Probably should only be playing in 2.40, 2.50, 4.25 and 5.40 but what the hell. |
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got connectivity issues here. i will only be v., small ew on 2.50 hay panic room, race should prob really be a past altogether as i got a small liking for trumpets call now too!
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Hi TM and all. I do pretty much the same as yourselves and have been keeping records from 2007. Just to add the 7.20 Lingfield has become an Each way steal race (IMO!) due to the non runner. Will speak more later when got more time.
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Well done fellas Panic Room did look a knocking EW steal but 5/2 thought a bit short, so backed it to win!
Horse i really fancied EW was Hartswood, as posted in kemo sabes thread, touched off by stablemate, didn't post on here as hardly a Filthy EW bet. |
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Back briefly for doggy reasons (she goes mental if left alone for much more than an hour at a time! - she is a bit mental even if not left alone to be fair!).
Managed to somehow talk myself out of the full ew stake on Panic Room (14:50) between leaving the house and arriving at my destinations! - but it worked out ok anyway - at least the 8 all ran!Welcome Biffmeister! - I'm starting to wonder who isn't doing this now! - the thread is revealing an ever expanding bunch of bandits! Good spot (the NR) at 19:20! It falls into the same category as the 19:40 for me though - i.e. I think it could very well be the 2 horse race that the betting indicates it to be - but would want a slightly better price than current 15/8 (greedy s0d) to play without a 3rd place available. Live and hope, they might both tempt me more by drifting big time but I doubt it. Please keep posting. I have to go back out now and won't be back till quite late (wife will be back soon to look after the psycho dog - before anyone rings the RSPCA!) but will now probably only do the 17:40 race and likely do it to the same (reduced) stake used in the 14:50 because the more I look at it the less clear cut it feels. The 19:20 and 19:40 are probably not for me unless there is a mad plunge on the favs and quite a bit of a drift on the 2nd favs! GL all. |
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Don't expect anyone will be interested in this race the 6.40Chelms but i think it will be very difficult to keep Parknacilla out of the frame, price has gone now into 9/2.
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Was looking at global Racing in the 7.00 Clonmel but think the betting's going the wrong way now
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Actually i forget to say have backed it EW 1st 4 at the daft odds off 17/4 rather than 9/2 1st 3, just a £1 less return for every £20 staked but extra place insurance.
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Go collect on Second Love, well done fellas!
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great stuff stewarts!!vwd
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Price drifted nicely thanks to support for Force Of Cashen, got some 6/1+ near the off, had been waiting for it to run back on the AW. Had put it up earlier this season, "Have to Spiller the beans on this one"!
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BOOOM!!..unreal price on the King horse!
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Hope you did the 7.20 TM, another 5/2 winner!
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Wow what's happened there........... Didn't back but that betting was crazy.... Who the hell backs these odds on shots in novices and maiden..
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