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bad each way races - bookmakers
bad each way races - bookmakers
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Replies: 438
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Bank notes duly ironed..awaiting further instruction.
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Why is Ten Sovereigns (3.35) a bigger price in the EW market on here than the win only market?
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@bettinghelp
Imagine constructing the EW bet from placing bets into the Win and Place markets. Because Ten Sovereigns is a bigger price in the Place market than needed to fund the 1/5th of Win odds place part of your bet if you were to bet £10 EW as £10:£10 W:P So you don't need to put a whole tenner on the Place part of the bet, you have a bit more money to use on the Win part, so the return is bigger, which looks like bigger oddds. I built some spreadsheets to do the calculation when BF introduced Exch EW markets a few years back, to see if there were arbs with Win and Place. Turned out braver men than me (it's not safe under NRs), with deeper pockets and faster 'bots, are there already. |
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Owt today shrewdies?
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Nothing from me today Kenny (I am lot more cautious than Skippy) the possibilities I looked at were:
13:55 Epsom - Moorland Spirit (Currently totally and utterly friendless in the market and dead 8 runners is a worry unless betting very close to the off - which prevents getting much on or securing prices). 15:00 Southwell - Maystar (a bit too short in the betting and slight concern about surface) 15:10 Chepstow - Gert Lush (it's a really dire race, would want 4/1+ and dead 5 runners is also a worry - wouldn't wanna be all on the win if there is a late NR!) Pretty boring I know but I only bet when i feel very very confident of landing the place part - this cautious approach costs me a good few winners but I am also pretty successful at avoiding (costly) unplaced selections. |
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ty Mr.Management.
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No worries - not really a serious betting day for me as already stated but it would still be good if there was a discussion thread imo.
The drift on Moorland Spirit there reminded me of Hillside Girl!! - and the Place Only SP ended up at about 11/10! - to be fair anyone backing it place only or each-way owes the jockey big time - rode it out for 3rd like it was the Derby imo - as testified by the 4th horse being matched at 1.01 (I think) in the place market! |
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done a small ew double on 3.00 and 3.10.
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BOOOM!
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Go collect Kenny - 11/1+ for the win double (at industry SP) and nearly 6/4 the place double.
I made my usual few buttons messing about trading on here in the EW and place markets. Obviously wish I had hid the shops now but the slow drip fills the bucket! GL. |
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* hit the shops
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Did do both the aforementioned........ STOWMAN or IMPATIENT in the next??
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I gave that race an initial look Skippy (non handicap with 8 runners) but if I don't have a surefire selection (to investigate further) after my initial look, I give it a pass. I don't like the shape of the market (2/1 or 9/4 each of two) and I'm too lazy/old now to hang around shops in the hope that the market will go OTT on one of them. So not for me but GL.
Another runner in the 7 horse race at Ripon (17:05) might have been interesting! |
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Done STOWMAN 9/4...
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I am officially a wus! - that race is just too "competitive" for me - GL mate.
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Skip - very well done esp on the 9/4.
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The Management 26 Aug 19 15:35
Another runner in the 7 horse race at Ripon (17:05) might have been interesting!  2/9 fav beaten - so it would have been very interesting!! |
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The 2-30 Ripon only possible race today...
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Yep..a day for sitting on one's hands.
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Nothing ew in the shops for me today.
I can't even offer up the selections I considered as possibles and then swerved (which obviously usually win!  ). I looked at the 14:30 at Ripon (I rarely do sellers or claimers unless there is a long odds-on fav to bet ew against). The 14:45 (too competitive for my cautious/sissy approach). The 20:10 at Ballinrobe (has a nice shape to the betting but I very rarely venture across the Irish Sea)! Maybe a BF place only bet on here this evening but it's not a "filthy each-way race" - so not for this thread. |
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4.40 Mussleboro has potential and maybe a couple of races at Kempton tonight.
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hdcp.. ??? 2.10 5.55 6.55
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I'm with pete_de - I very rarely do EW filth in handicaps - the (currently!) dead 8 runners makes it a bit tempting but I usually only get active in HC's if there is a seriously very short odds-on fav to bet EW against. As with all dead 8's it's difficult to get much on at desired prices if you also want to wait till near off time to confirm that all 8 will run!
Other than that looking at the same races as Pete - 14:10, 17:55, 18:55 and possibly also the 19:10. |
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T M think you mean 19.15
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Yes pete - sorry 19:15 - I think I need some covfefe!
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Brandy's all round I would imagine!
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Back from doing my "shopping" - so needless to say I took my own cautious advice and swerved the 16:40 at Muss
- obviously therefore the odds-on fav ran unplaced and the second fav won the race (VWD Kenny - I hope you were on).I have a family commitment this evening and I won't likely post again; While out I have reinvested all of the Cognac winnings as follows: 17:55 No bet - the market might mature later - but it looks unlikely and I won't be around if they go OTT about one of the two. 18:55 Zahee (Each Way) @ 4/1 - was chuffed with getting some 4/1 at the time - now see its drifted like a barge on here while I was out and is 5/1+ in the ew market 19:15 Cotswold Prince (Each Way) @ 3/1 - again was chuffed with getting some 3/1 at the time - now see its drifted on here and is bigger than 3/1 in the EW market on here! All in all not feeling very shrewed (sic) in terms of prices! - but we shall see. |
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Ty Mr Management..3.20 foss/lass seems a goer!
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Hi Kenny - yes a quietish day, the 15:20 at Ffos Las does seem like a definite goer! (providing they all come under orders!). I hope they do as I have had a few bets already!
The market in the 17:10 at Bellewstown has an absolutely beautiful shape to it but I can't usually bring myself to do the Irish. I hope you backed Kitty's Cove in the 16:40 Musselburgh yesterday? Good shout if you did. I only had the one winner (Cognac) in the 14:10 at Muss but had a lousy day thereafter given that no favourites won any of the 5 races we posted about between you, me and Pete_de!! - Favs beaten in the 14:10 (5/6 fav - 3rd), 16:40 (4/6 fav - unplaced), 17:55 (10/11 fav - 2nd), 18:55 (1/2 fav - unplaced), 19:15 (11/8 fav - 3rd) !!! It should have been a cracking day - so breaking roughly even, i feel like i missed a few sitters! |
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Had to snaffle some of the early 6/1 about Trueshan...
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 Done them both (6/1 Korals the winner & 5/2 everywhere the 2nd). vwd Skip if you only did the winner. |
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did caravan in ew double with prince kayf 7.20
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A nice bet Kenny -
I was bricking it slightly that Caravan was gonna get withdrawn at the start - leaving me with just Trueshan ew and 1/4 odds on just 2 places! Now I'm sat here thinking how nice that would have been!  |
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I rarely bet early on the dead 8 runners (in fear of NR/late withdrawal) - but it's catch 22 - if you wanna get a little bit on and take the prices you have to have a tour round which takes time! All's well that ends well - GL with Prince K later.
17:10 Bellewstown still has an absolutely beautiful shape to the betting market! - I will resist, I will resist, I will resist! |
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WD Kenny - a small profit for you from the place double even at SP with both being a quarter the odds - Although I imagine you got better than SP.
I see in the 17:10 at Bellewstown that they finished in market order - so Challow could have been a nice (almost) double up of any each way multi's - but whenever I include an Irish race the odds on fav beats a couple of 50/1 rags to scupper a nice 20/1+ place multi! Tomorrow looks a bit grim - at first glance just the last (19:35) at Wolverhampton - maybe an each way bet if the market goes mad for Mojave (which was a solid ew bet last time out!) - but again it's a dead 8 runners so difficult to get much on at early prices with any confidence of having all three places to gun for! Catch you tomorrow. |
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This thread now has a views/posts ratio of approx 82/1 - so I am assuming there are a lot of "lurkers". Still it's a bit disappointing there are so few contributors!
FWIW - To me it still looks like the 19:35 at Wolves is the only likely betting race (assuming all 8 make it into the stalls!). So from my perspective - no rush to bet in any shops at the current prices - it can wait till nearer the off when/if 8 runners still looks likely. My current view is that I'd like to see Mojave shorten first but even then I'm struggling to split Monsieur Lambrays & Sweet Celebration! If I thought it was truly just a 3 horse race with a definite 8 runners, I would typically just go with the maths and do both each way. Holding me back currently (apart from the possibility of a non-runner) is that Mojave is a bigger price than I thought it would be (on here) atm, plus I am a bit wary of the MJ horse maybe being capable of a place, plus I am a bit wary of the money for the Butler horse (when one would normally expect to see a quiet from this yard 3rd time out!), partly wary that it's true ew money but equally wary that it's maybe a NR! I suspect I will go with the maths in the end - but happy at present to sit on hands and wait for the market to mature, simultaneously allowing more time for a possible NR to emerge. Anyone else got any views on todays EW options? |
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Good afternoon Mr. Management...the 2 Dave Roberts runners at Bangor 3.30 and 4.40 will carry some of my dough today
Both have have been supported and his last 5 runners have all plaiced(zero wins)..gl all. |
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Hi Kenny - thanks for the reply and your selections.
I'm conscious that you recently gave a 4/1+ winner (imo) in a (filthy ew) Handicap at Musselburgh, so i will watch those Bangor races with interest. I stopped betting (regularly) in handicaps a long time ago (mostly because I found it all consuming in terms of the hours required!) - I used to do a lot of ew multi's (mostly just accas with 3, 4 or 5 picks) - mentally writing off the win stake and relying on the accumulated place odds. Now I really only play HC's if the make up of the market is very filthy for ew purposes or sometimes if there are extreme ground conditions, also on the flat if I perceive a draw bias and sometimes big fields (at festival meetings) when there are very enhanced ew terms available. I will likely stick to just the filthy races on this thread but please keep posting yours, including in HC's. |
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3.15 Sandown
First 3 favs have SEXY entries Stoutes first runner My Frankel-no entries Could be a bad each way bet  |
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A warm welcome ImSoLuckyLucky!
I did look at the race last night thinking it had FEW (Filthy Each Way) potential (Discovery Island) if the betting took the right shape - which it looks to have done on the maths - but I ruled it out due to too many potentially unexposed/unknown lurkers from stables that are capable. GL if you play. |