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bad each way races - bookmakers
bad each way races - bookmakers
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Replies: 438
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No worries Stewarts - was getting used to talking to myself - but thank you!
I think taking 5/2 about the Johnston horse has cost me about 27 unit steaks (sic) but I can't complain. Then again, having said that, I do like to complain! - so I am a bit annoyed that the money running-on dissuaded me from having any proper/chunky ew singles! Hi robbouk69 - very nice to hear from you or anybody for that matter!. Any contributions gladly received by me and I feel honoured to have received your annual post this year! - Just kidding, please feel free though. Jonmh - If you are there and unable to post?? - I hope you have had it off mate. GL all. |
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Well done TM. Glad to see there still some juice there.
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Cheers Brian - I think my response to you the other day was (unintentionally) a bit harsh and possibly a bit patronising
 . But only really realised that too late (after I had posted it!). It is so hard to communicate this way, in print (without any facial expression, voice tone or body language), I guess it partially explains why so many people seems so angry all the time in this age of the internet. Anyway, just wanted to say - thanks for not taking offence and I'm glad you are still looking in. |
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Cheers TM yep it's been a good day. I backed both winners in singles and a double (2.30 and 4.50) and having read your initial post I had a look at the 2.00 and backed Able Kane as well so a big thanks to you mate. I also had a dabble in the 2.10 at Warwick which was dominated by the front three in the betting and that was placed so good day all round.
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A quick glance at tomorrow's cards suggests an interesting day
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The first four races at Kempton seem to fit the bill and theres one at Perth as well
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The management can't you get bog?...I doubled my outlay on the 2.30 4.50 ew doubles..a good day.
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Nice Jonmh! - very pleased to hear that. Catch up tomorrow.
It looks very interesting indeed (potentially) tomorrow - 14:10 Perth (if 8 run), 18:45 Newcastle and then several races at Kempton 17:00, 17:30 & 18:30. It could be a long day! |
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Hi Kenny - glad you had a good day. WD.
I get bog (whenever I can) but today's bets were mostly with Korals (they were offering the best early prices on the 14:00 where I wanted to do ew singles). I believe korals use the offering of BOG to "encourage" you sign up for a "reward" card of some kind (can't remember the name of it) and for obvious reasons I don't want a registered card of any kind! So I don't think I got BOG today. Might be a nice surprise when I pick up - but I doubt it! tbh - I am am usually a pretty good judge of an early price (in my modest opinion!). But obviously in the shops it's sometimes a toss-up between BOG versus the bigger early price elsewhere that isn't BOG. Today, I am disappointed to have take 5/2 about the 7/2 (ISP) Johnston winner at 14:30 - so it's a good example of the merits of BOG - but i got 5/1 (versus ISP of 9/2) on the first winner Able Kane (singly and in the trebles), I took 6/1 about the 4th placed horse in that race Capla Spirit (ISP was only 5/1). I declined the (very tight!) 11/4 on both runners (took no prices/accepted ISP) in the final race, so I got 7/2 (ISP) on the third winner Electric Ladyland. The unplaced selection in that race was 4/1 (ISP). So obviously BOG would be preferable but i won't provide my name and address etc to secure it! |
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I'm not as confident this morning as I was last night
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Hi Jonmh - I am a way late/behind today (I had to get the wifes car MOT'd & Serviced early this morning).
I have to agree - it all looks a lot more "competitive" than it did last night! The non-runner has screwed the 14:10 Perth (imo). Currently planning to have a proper look at 17:00, 17:30, 18:30 and 18:45 (and maybe 13:15) but already struggling to make definitive single ew selections! |
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Looks like one of those days with a lot of short priced favs but nothing leaping of the page as the likely sole competitor against them (even in the races where I think the short fav might not be bulletproof). I got away with one yesterday - but today I think I will stick to my own trusted advice - which states - if you have to look too hard for them, they probably aren't there! Current thoughts as follows:
13:15 Red: Never intended to play this race but the betting surprises me and I would be quite happy to have an EW single on Bentley Wood if it keeps drifting and/or if the Haggas horse (Convict) keeps shortening. Quite a few "lurkers"(FTO or lightly raced potential improvers) but the drift is still surprising. Prob/Poss bet. 14:10 Per: Now only 7 runners due to NR - no bet. 17:00 Kem: The maths and the early market move indicates Qasbaz. I like the jockey, don't like the trainer much and there are too many "lurkers" (lightly raced potential improvers). Would consider doing the fav (Desert Safari), in the very unlikely event that the massive drift continues and it becomes an "each-wayable" price! - no bet (yet!) 17:30:Kem: The maths and the early market indicates Pepper Bay - but it's FTO and there are plenty "lurkers" It's not quite Arazi (  ) and I'm not quite sure what it actually beat - but the fav (Dance Fever) was very impressive First Time Out (imo). - no bet (yet!)18:00 Kem: A "lurkers" race if ever there was one! - but Jean Baptiste very nearly did me a favour LTO and the trainer is in much better form now. Expected it to be fav - not gonna take 5/2 ew (best price at moment) but would be an ew bet if it drifted a little. Prob/Poss bet. 18:30 Kem: Wanna take on such a short fav with something ew - but assuming it places at the very least, that leave 4 horses (imo) battling for 2 places. Slight preference for Big Daddy Kane (at the prices) - but can;t really split them - so proably no bet. 18:45 New: The maths and early market indicates Zezinia - but it's FTO and there are plenty of "lurkers" imo - probably no bet. In summary (at the moment) it looks like my only ew singles might be the 13:15 and 18:00. I will also be doing some very, very small staked but ambitious multiples to include all the races above (except the 14:10). |
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A disappointing start - it looked good at half way (imo) but found practically nothing and was passed by a couple of the "lurkers" to finish only 4th. I would love to say the market corrected itself (imo) and it eventually went off too short, so I didn't back it - but unfortunately I went in ew at an average of about 5/2 (so I'm happy to after-time my losers as well as the odd winner!) - my decision to bet or not to bet on "borderline" selections is ALWAYS gonna be dependant on the prices.
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3.50 Sligo a possible TM!
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Hi Stewarts! - Nice to have some input - but do you mean the 15:30? If so I very rarely do beginners chases and only very rarely do anything much in Ireland.
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If you meant 16:30 - the same applies (Irish Chase)! - not for me.
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Sorry 3.30.
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Hi everybody......... I backed Bentley Wood as well at Redcar..... Very disappointing run I thought....... Not very keen on anything in the 4 each way races which start the card at Kempton..... Though I'm not too keen on the fav in the 2nd and the Watson is very short...but the rest much of a muchness..
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Jean Baptiste too short for a bet
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Touched 1.23 IR but beaten by a big priced "lurker"!
I always have a quick look at Baldings when 2nd time out (they often come on a tonne for the run) but really could never have backed that. |
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Personally I think there are 3 no brainers today.... TARAMANSOUR 2-10 GOWRAN, NEVER BE ENOUGH 2-35 PERTH, GREEN BROOK 4-35 PONTE....... All 3 got excellent form credentials.. Imo.... Nice each way trixie...
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I'm with you skip! - long morning! - but I'm on the first 2 of those in ew singles (including the Irish one!), plus Good Earth (14:15).
Out again now - but back for 16:35 and 18:00 hopefully. GL all. |
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With you shrewdies
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Like Colwood 7.45
Bigger and Better 5.35 GP. |
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WD Stewarts!
It's been a couple of slow (and losing) days here - but not too much damage done on the week as Tuesday was exceptionally good. Looking back over two consecutive poor/losing days - I really am playing far to loose atm. Nothing EW for me today. I will just be doing some snooker and some chores. For anyone interested in (relatively meaningless) stats - Liverpool are 6 from 6 to be winning at Half Time/Full Time in the EPL. They play away at Sheffield United at 12:30 tomorrow. (Wrong Forum Muppet!). GL all. |
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I can only find one race to play in at the moment. 5.45 Dundalk 10/11, 3/1, 4/1, 14/1 bar. Chasing the Dawn EW @ 3/1.
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I think the Fav (Peaceful) is a NR Jon.
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So it is TM. That's me clobbered with a 50p rule 4
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Plenty more n/rs to come at Haycock imo,with lots of overnight rain,and more to come.!
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Haydock
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BF quite slow to remove it - allowing quite a bit of market manipulation!
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TM, perhaps you could help with my dilemma on thread i've started?
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Hi Stewarts - those offers usually just make my head hurt! - I didn't respond because I think it all depends on a lot of variable factors like:
1) How much do you fancy it? 2) The style of running of your selection e.g. Front runner/Pace setter in sprints, I tend to bet win only (avoid ew or even place lay them if other front runners/Pace setters are in the field). That's just one example of where sometimes trying to win will screw the chances of placing (hope that makes sense). There are other examples/race make-ups where this is also the case (imo). 3) Style of running of the other horses in the field - for similar reasons to above. 4) Field size 5) What % of the book is attributable to Fav 6) Several other factors too! I don't really do Handicaps anymore but when I did I always wanted an "angle" to theoretically give me an edge (Going, Draw, Likely Pace, Location of Pace, Lack of pace, etc, etc). I try to visualise the race and how it will be run - that would usually influence my bet options - I do firmly believe that some styles of running/race make-ups lend themselves more to EW betting and other race make-ups/running styles I would always bet win only. I tend to categorise horses/races accordingly. Sorry that's probably no help whatsoever but I think it's very complex and although those "special" bets have a place in a punters tool box, it's all about horses for courses/circumstances of a particular race and every race falls into a certain category. |
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ok, thanks TM.
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Just looking at the fairly obvious first race at Ripon. That aside, I can't see anything much else that I like; which is a shame because (at such a short price) I would probably have liked to use it as an ew banker in some ew doubles but it looks like just Be Prepared (13:55 Ripon) today imo.
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Agree TM. If I was going to give myself a 'card' to bet on today it would be 1.55 Rip, 5.20 Rip, 2.15 MR, 1.35 Ch, 2.25 New, and 1.25 Curr.
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Hi Jon - those are pretty much all the same races I looked at I think. All the 2/1 for Be Prepared (available when I first posted) has now gone! I may still frame some ew doubles around it but I don't like to go much shorter than 2/1. The 15:55 at Chester is a bit of a tempter (imo) but the fav is well drawn and all the alternatives are not!, plus it's a really poor contest.
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It's 13/8 now so i'll either wait for a drift or leave it alone completely. The lay off and getting turned over at 2/9 LTO is also a bit off putting.
2.15 MR is starting to draw me in with the market completely dominated by the front three (15/8,2/1,2/1, 16/1 bar). A non runner throws a spanner in the works though. |
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Belmont 9.43 wow cat @ 7/2 and 3/1 generally would be massively overbroke in the place (I say would as no place market available)
betfair market currently 1.25 4.7 70.0 70.0 70.0 |
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1.50 Curragh is the only one I can see today.
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