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AAPL - is anyone paying attention?

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Replies: 339
By:
thecanadian
When: 22 Jun 11 05:51
Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 3682 22 Jun 11 04:55 
right thats it.I give up.Cry



as you should

you don't even have the feckin faintest idea what the guy is friggin talking about but you continue to take shots at him

you make pet rocks look intelligent

fecktard
By:
Menelaus
When: 22 Jun 11 08:47
If the trademark thing is true, it's certainly news to me. I would also take the side of the bet that says Apple gets nowhere with it if indeed they are thinking along those lines. The only patent infringement cases that I'm aware of is the one they just settled with Nokia with Apple agreeing to pay licensing fees to Nokia for key patents. The other is the one they filed against Samsung which I understand is in the throws of getting resolved. Many were surprised Apple sued in the first place both because their case seemed to lack merit as well as because Samsung is a major supplier to Apple.

Have a look at this article, It doesn't put Apple in a favourable light concerning their approach:
(http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2383820,00.asp)

As far as other consumers ("as the world grows") and "gadget-obsessed Asia" replacing the ailing American consumer goes, I would agree if they word "eventually" was inserted in there,  but we're many many years away from that "eventually" point in time however. The world became addicted to the vast appetite of the American consumer, one that was fueled by the greatest real estate bubble ever known to man. The bubble has burst and the American consumer is bust, corporations need to readjust, there are no quick fixes or miracles.....until the day when eventually emerging market economies can take over. We're a long ways from that point in time yet, if ever........scarcity of resources and in particular OIL will have a big say in the insane rate of growth we've witnessed so far from some of these EMs, but that's an entirely different debate for another time.

For starters take Japan out of that growth scenario, their demographic and status of their economy (bad and getting worse) will not support a growth scenario for Apple. Europe is slightly better but not far behind. UK don't even go there. That leaves the emerging markets. What's the average annual income in China? What about Vietnam? How about the rest of the Asia-Pacific countries? IT'S CALLED WAGE ARBITRAGE FOR A REASON.

Here's an article worth reading asking the question "What's happened to Apple's stock?":
http://money.msn.com/stock-broker-guided/article.aspx?post=720348bd-5ce7-4442-a527-15fe6ae3fbef
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 23 Jun 11 22:18
Well Apple gave us the answer today - tremendously resiliant rally in a falling market. Now back up to $331.

Every dip is just a Base Camp for the team on their way to the summit, it seems.
By:
Menelaus
When: 23 Jun 11 22:27
It depends on your definition of "summit".
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 23 Jun 11 22:35
Yes, we mere mortals can only peer up into the clouds, we can't tell where it is. Happy
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 06 Jul 11 16:18
$350
By:
Whippet
When: 15 Jul 11 21:28
$365


Hope you had tight stops LaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
Menelaus
When: 15 Jul 11 21:44
If you are referring to me, the trade was closed in profit long ago. It's all up on this thread if you want to check it.

I'm glad you posted though, how's that gold to $1,250 call working out for you?

Laugh
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 15 Jul 11 22:04
Here we go again.
Now take that. Ouch.
Here you take that. Ouch.
Unfair. I wasn't ready.
Here then. Whack. Were you ready then ?.
Boo hoo. Mummy.
By:
Menelaus
When: 15 Jul 11 22:14
Benny is noise

Whippet is a child

End of fight
By:
Menelaus
When: 15 Jul 11 22:15
Actually to be honest, it's unfortunate that Whippet stoops down to Benny's level because I think there's potential there. Seriously.
By:
Whippet
When: 16 Jul 11 01:37
come on, learn to take a joke menelaus [;)]

Seriously though, was just watching the film "rogue trader". Reminds me a lot of menelaus's trading style. Hide all the AAPL losses in the 88888 account eh mene?Laugh Ok, enough joking for now.

I'm honoured you think I have potential, although potential for what exactly I'm not sure? Perhaps you should take me under your wing and hire me as your assistant? I will work for a 5 figure salary and am good at starbucks runs. Let me know and I will forward my CV.

As for that gold call, looks like I have been broadsided by that fat guy with a beard again, touche. Lesson learnt. Laugh
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 16 Jul 11 08:24
Menelaus posted after both ends of the trade. All the reasoning behind the trade looks flawed.

Eighteen months ago the shares stood at $200. Now $365. There's no way round that.
By:
polybot
When: 16 Jul 11 09:00
That aapl short was a complete train wreck, yet menelaus sees it as WINNING! He's the Charlie Sheen of the forum.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 16 Jul 11 09:54
Just remember the two words apple and bible.
An omen ?
By:
Menelaus
When: 16 Jul 11 18:51
This forum is the only place when someone can post a short at $350, then close the position at $332, post everything before hand, and the trade be considered "a train wreck". I think the fanboy's brain has been fried downloading too many apps on his ipad.

unitedbiscuits, one of these days you may clue in that I didn't short 18 months ago. I shorted around $350, got out exactly at the right time around $332. That's all I care about.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 16 Jul 11 19:12
Don't professional shorters actually look for the whole trade to simulate a train wreck in the size of price movement ?.

That is they usually don't bother if the expected movement is going to be only of the scale you achieved, no matter what the time scale.

But a win is a win I suppose.

And I for one don't doubt that you had one as described.
By:
Whippet
When: 16 Jul 11 19:31
Exactly what I was thinking FAFH.

The way this trade was sold to us was that AAPL is a mugs company, overvalued in the extreme, etc etc.

Based on this info, it was a sure thing to half or more in price.

In reality all that happened was the price declined by a few %, not based on any of the above reasons, but because the entire market was in turmoil.

As I asked at the time, why AAPL? I can guarantee you could have found a hundred other companies to short who would have declined at least as much, if not more than AAPL, over any timeframe you can think of.

In the end, we learnt that this was actually a short term trade, and infact, actually underperformed the index it is part of Laugh

See here for the chart: AAPL -4.71%, NASDAQ -5.25%, DOW -2.16%.


http://www.google.co.uk//finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1308340800000&chddm=17595&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=INDEXDJX:.DJI&cmptdms=0&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0


Menelaus posted his Massive short AAPL on April 14th:


"Menelaus
14 Apr 11 12:50
Here's my position: MASSIVELY short AAPL"


Menelaus
17 Jun 11 16:44
Closed positions.


I ask again, why AAPL?
By:
Menelaus
When: 16 Jul 11 20:33
@ FAFH

Short answer; NO. I can scalp the market long or short all day for profit, I don't have to score the "goal of the year" to be in the green. Professional traders know and understand that, none to be found on this forum unfortunately. Just for the record, I have met and know many professional traders in my life, never a "professional shorter". No such thing.


@ Whippet

I was wrong about seeing potential in you. I mistook your petulance for critical thinking. My mistake.

Why AAPL at that point in time was posted numerous times before. You are either not reading all the posts, or some of the explanations are over your head.

Again for the record, I don't mind anyone being on the right side of the trade (as long as I'm not on the other side of that trade that is :-)) but I do mind posters who show massive ignorance why markets move even though they may have been on the right side of the trade. It's just me.....
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 16 Jul 11 21:52
Aren't there a few hedge funds out there that pretty much specialise only in big time shorting ?
The guy that successfully shorted Enron, tried to do the same with AIG ?
Is it Jim Chanos or something like that ?. I forget tbh.
Or is it David Einhorn ?. He shorted Lehman Bros. didn't he ?. Or was it Bear Stearns ?.
I profess I don't know the players intimately and/familiarly like you must and do.
By:
Menelaus
When: 16 Jul 11 22:20
Surely you are trying to annoy me on purpose Laugh. THERE ARE NO PROFESSIONAL SHORTERS, only professional traders. The examples you are bringing up are of people who are professional traders and exploited an opportunity to go massively short when the situation warranted it. There's no such thing as "professional shorters", just professional traders.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 16 Jul 11 22:44
Winning! ?
Well hardly, Menelaus. By choosing really auspicious days to open and close your trades you have made less than someone who simply kept his stock. Meanwhile anyone unlucky enough to have followed your advice for any of the reasons stated in your argument has basically thrown money away.
By:
Menelaus
When: 16 Jul 11 22:48
unitedbiscuits, why waste all those words in your post. Just say I'm a "buy & hold'em" investor, I would have understood. Good luck holdin'
By:
Menelaus
When: 16 Jul 11 22:53
On second thought, you do know what shorting a stock is, yes?
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 16 Jul 11 22:54
Refer to your original post of 5/4/11 when the shares were $339.
"If anyone is still holding Apple, I'd consider getting out sharpish, if I were you."
By:
Menelaus
When: 16 Jul 11 23:10
I averaged up while shorting but that's neither here nor there.

Let me ask you a question that a five year old should able to answer.

If you are sitting on a pile of AAPL and I advise you to GET OUT SHARPISH at $339 and then buy back your lot at $332 when the trade was closed, are you further ahead or worse off?

I hope unlike Whippet you DO have grade three math.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 16 Jul 11 23:13
Menelaus
It was my undertanding, perhaps mistaken, that there were certain well known individuals who did devote almost all their time and resources to looking for big time shorts, almost to the excclusion of all other trading type activities.
I stand corrected if I am wrong on this.
By:
Menelaus
When: 16 Jul 11 23:23
If you ever find them, please point them out to me.

Lot's of "legends" (Einhorn, Paulson, etc.) have made massive profits from timely shorts but they don't specialize in shorting. In the overall scheme of things, they have as many, if not more, long positions as they do short. They are professional traders, not professional shorters. No such thing.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 16 Jul 11 23:25
If you say so.
But I might just reserve my opinion if you don't mind too much.
By:
Whippet
When: 16 Jul 11 23:56
unitedbiscuits is right.

Melly, your reasons for shorting AAPL in the first place were perfectly good and valid. The problem is the way you phrased it you were clearly after a massive long term drop. Why would anyone go into detail about Profit margins, revenues, etc etc, if in reality, all they were after is a small -3.79% drop off the back of the sovereign debt crisis?

In short, the reason you had a successful trade, was nothing to do with the reasons you entered the trade in the first place.

I've seen you accusing other people of this time and time again, particularly ben. Time to man up and admit you were clueless this time I think.
By:
Menelaus
When: 17 Jul 11 07:18
Whippet, get a life.
By:
Whippet
When: 17 Jul 11 11:45
Avoiding the question again. I honestly thought you were better than this. What you are doing now is akin to sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting LA LA LA LA LA. Laugh
By:
Menelaus
When: 17 Jul 11 12:17
Give it up, Whippet. School's out.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 17 Jul 11 14:14
Menelaus, you seem to be adrift in a very wide and deep river in Africa.



De Nile.
By:
Menelaus
When: 17 Jul 11 14:20
Wow, that's original unitedbiscuits, I must admit I never heard that witticism before. Got any other "original" ideas you'd like to share?
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 17 Jul 11 14:44
Yes, since you ask. Buy Apple.

It's not original tho, I said it on here in April.
By:
Menelaus
When: 17 Jul 11 15:57
Wow, calling the most overcrowded trade on the market "original" is not my idea of original but to each his own.

Actually, since you bring it up, I'm considering going short again on Tuesday if the price pops again like it did last time they reported. I think it's priced in already given that 2pc pop we saw Friday but you never know, "irrational exuberance" and "herd mentality" abounds when it comes to this stock. I'll let you know.
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 17 Jul 11 21:25
Menelaus, you may advance 50 yards in the trenches and claim a firic victory but Apple fans are flying over your head in aeroplanes. You'll never get back the money you have lost by cementing your anti-Apple stance.
By:
Menelaus
When: 17 Jul 11 21:29
Do you mean >THIS< money I lost? Now, I get it.....

Menelaus     Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 883 17 Jun 11 16:44 
Closed positions.

AAPL $323 shorted on three different occasions at a weighted average at  about $348  (7pc decline)
NFLX $247 shorted at about $273 (9.5pc decline)
By:
unitedbiscuits
When: 17 Jul 11 21:38
Funny how you didn't start the thread until the price had gone to $339 on April5th., when it was all looking so promising.

Laugh
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