Silly Melanie


Big mac flipper

$330 breached

NYSE closed

AAPL $325.90

what is your target price for cashing out? When apple goes bankrupt?

polybot, you lie.

I went short AAPL at around $342 in April, not 4-5 months ago. I loaded up short positions right after their last earnings statement with the stock shooting to $350+ when I believed we hit top for the year. Perhaps you weren't reading my posts carefully enough. It closed at $325+ Friday. I would throw that calculator you are using away and buy a new one if a drop from $350 to $325 works out to a 3-4pc drop.

You enjoyed the ride up with AAPL for all the wrong reasons and evidently without even understanding why. I suspect the ride down will have you equally puzzled. But it sounds like you are a buy and hold type of investor, so with more printed money coming down the pike equities will rise again. What a $ will buy you by then however is a different story....

But look at the bright side, you made lots of virtual dollars in that silly "no lose" game you devised and you were the sole participant...

And while I'm on a roll, stop littering this forum with rubbish analysis about valuations, P/E ratios, and other such rubbish. You still don't get it, that type of analysis was valid pre-2007, not today. That approach to investing is so far in the rear view mirror I can't even see it anymore. What drives markets today is FED/CB liquidity, easy money, plain and simple. Repeat that under your teeth until it sinks in. Then you're getting it.

Menelaus
How about going on record now as to what your proposed exit target is ?
Too revealing perhaps ?

"Menelaus 14 Apr 11 12:50
Here's my position: MASSIVELY short AAPL"

Just to clarify, this was the week BEFORE earnings and the price was around 332-336, THEN it went to 350+ and you were ****-ting your pants all the way. You'll be lucky if you escape with minimal losses, meanwhile check the charts for RIMM, SNE, NOK. Looks like you backed the wrong horse again.

Just a reminder, this is what the calls looked like at earnings as it started it's climb to 350, i can only imagine the horrific state of your shorts then, and not much better now they've been stewing for months.
DAYS    QTY    DELTA    DESCRIPTION    P/L DAY    P/L OPEN    MARK    MARK CHNG    AVG PRICE
OPT    ►    29    +xx        783.84736    AAPL 100 MAY 11 295 CALL    16.27%    48.27%    56.1    7.4    37.8375

Angry comedian .   ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Yes, of course, "you were too busy selling the may calls at the time", so busy in fact that you didn't have time to post it. There's no point in debating anything with you polybot. You are a fanboy to the core and will twist every bit of information posted on here to suit your position.

When the stock was on a tear on the way up, you rode it for all it was worth, never bothering to take profits off the table all the way to the top. The stock hits top for the year and although at the time you broke out in orgasmic rapture claiming that it's heading to $400 and posted about it, now we find out that you "were selling may calls". Aftertiming trades is easy. Winning in "no lose" silly paper games you make up on here is also easy. Convincing us that you have a clue about what you are doing other than just be fortunate enough to be at the receiving end of Bernanke's largess...and not even knowing it.....is a different story.

I told you to load up on shorts when the stock topped after the last earnings report. I re-posted that since you seemed confused but you're still clinging to your version of the truth and slinging insults my way. It's telling by the way that the insult you thought appropriate was "your landlord will be pleased to finally get some rent" relating no doubt to your own personal situation as a renter. It may shock you to find out that some of us live in rather luxurious, fully owned and paid for years ago, homes in the best neighborhoods of London. It's called having a great paying job. A real job with steady income, not just sitting behind a computer monitor trying to get lucky trading the market. And it seems in your case you'd need epic luck just to break even.

If the 200DMA is breached and AAPL closes below $325, look at below fanboy. You may have to sell your iphone, imac, ipad and whatever other irubbish you own to feed yourself.

fanboy, we can trade insults ad infinitum on here, I assure you I can spar with the best of them, but fundamentally I only have ONE question for you.

Since you have been consistently spewing "go long Apple" on this forum and you were presenting predictions by "analysts - who tend to be conservative", most indicating Apple heading to $425 and sometimes well beyond, how many calls have you bought at around $352 and will be expiring worthless the next few months?

Your posts are below:


polybot     Joined: 20 Oct 03
Replies: 1165 19 Apr 11 11:49 
Looks like I'm long AAPL.



polybot     Joined: 20 Oct 03
Replies: 1165 21 Jan 11 07:09 
analysts tend to be conservative...
19-Jan-11 Ticonderoga raises target from $450 to $550
19-Jan-11 Piper Jaffray raises target from $438 to $483
19-Jan-11 UBS raises price target from $415 to $465.
19-Jan-11 Barclay raises target from $420 to $450
19-Jan-11 BofA Merrill raises price target from $425 to $450
19-Jan-11 JP Morgan raises target to $450
19-Jan-11 Goldman Sachs raises target to $450
19-Jan-11 Susquehanna raises price target from $390 to $445.
19-Jan-11 Deutsche Bank raises Price Target to $440
19-Jan-11 Kaufman Brothers raises target from $415 to $438
19-Jan-11 Canaccord Genuity raises target to $432
19-Jan-11 Janney Capital raises target to $430
19-Jan-11 Wedbush raises target from $405 to $430
19-Jan-11 RBC Capital raises target from $395 to $425
19-Jan-11 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets: Target raised to $425
19-Jan-11 Oppenheimer raises target from $395 to $425
19-Jan-11 Stifel Nicholas raises target from $400 to $420
19-Jan-11 Citi raises target from $390 to $415
19-Jan-11 Morgan Stanley raises target from $375 to $410
19-Jan-11 BMO Capital: Target from $355 to $405.
19-Jan-11 Gleacher & Co raises target to $400
18-Jan-11 Cramer raises target price to $400.
19-Jan-11 Needham: Target raised to $375

i know for sure, as since he s been on my watch list, that polybot was buying apple shares in the low 100s. wheter he s still long or not, or if he could have optimized the exit i m not too sure, but in my book he s one of the few to follow.
menelaus, i remember v well your call to exit apple at around 335 and at around 350; so im sure it went all right for you too. but what kind of options do you have? as im assuming the premia on those cannot be too cheap ( 20 vol? im guessing ...so an atm put 1mth is around 8/10 dollars i guess ? _) or did you have longer term options and you re enjoying the rebound in the vix?

for me options on stocks are not very effective, especially on the put side. smile too high for the risk off premium but in fact the real leverage you get it on the calls.

Benny says "I don't know any  sophisticated traders that use options  as their main vehicle."

I'm going to let polybot respond to this comedic remark.

The real sad part about this forum is that it is literally "open" to everyone. All the way from those with a genuine understanding of finance, economics, the markets, the role of the FED and central banks and well......money, and there's many posters like that on here, all the way to an epic ignoramus who feels the need to poison EVERY thread with his ignorance like Benny.

AAPL closed at the all important $325 level today. Bounced after printing as low as $321+ virtually 30 minutes earlier where from a technical standpoint the chart looked very bearish. I believe the bearish trend is intact and I will continue staying short.

Not that I want to blow my own horn but it's pretty hard not to when you have the forum's ignoramus showing up spewing rubbish every time I post but I made a massive "time to short NFLX" suggestion to Whippet. I'll let Whippet confirm or deny if there's any doubt.

FAFH, point taken, and I shall consider it as constructive criticism.

I hope not too

Have a good night FAFH, I have to get up early tomorrow, very busy day at the office. All the best.

Meanwhile, the one and only trade (still vague and woolly with no details or plan, odd that) you ever "disclosed" is at best up 2 or 3 percent over 3 months, despite all your aftertiming!
Meanwhile, RIMM plummeted another 15 percent after hours today, you really haven't got a clue.

polybot, whatever.......

It's getting very tiring debating with someone with a closed mind. Here's the undisputed fact that you continue to skirt. When the stock hit top right after the earnings announcement you were spewing "buy, buy,buy" and my position was "sell,sell,sell". The stock is about $30 (8pc) lower today but you still argue that you had the right side of the trade. I'm amazed at your gall really.

AAPL puts were very cheap and totally mispriced. Why? Because just about every numb skull analyst out there, you know, the ones who "tend to be conservative" thought the party can go on forever and had the stock price going to the moon. Why? Because they saw the fanboys were lining up around the block to buy ipads not realizing the significant downdraft in the US economy that would impact those fanboys, not realizing that even gullible fanboys would eventually catch on that there are no new products just i2,i3,i4,iadinfinitum versions of essentially the same gadget, not realizing that competitors are catching up in places where Apple got the jump on them, not realizing the Android juggernaut is for real and getting bigger and better, not realizing that the markets still see Steve Jobs as Apple and unfortunately he has terminal cancer (now if Apple ever stop parading Steve at every one of their conferences, although he is clearly incapable of even standing up on his own two feet more than just a few minutes and looks about five stone underweight, then the market's perception might change - they know though, the day the launch a new product of yet another "new version" WITHOUT Steve on the podium, their stock will sink 5pc the SAME DAY), not realizing that Apple would be impacted by the same supply chain interruptions out of Japan as every other major electronic products mfgr. DESPITE Apple's assurances to the contrary that they have since retracted, and last and the most important, NOT REALIZING BERNANKE'S MONEY PRINTING ORGY THAT LIFTED ALL MARKETS WAS SOON COMING TO AN END.

Here's some friendly advice for you. If you bought into "the apple party never ends" mantra the calls you bought at the top will be expiring worthless. If you own AAPL stock, and you haven't bought with leverage, you don't have to answer margin calls and you don't need the cash for your day-to-day sustenance, then hold on. More money printing is the ONLY way out this mess the masters of the universe have created and the markets again will levitate. That's in nominal terms of course, in real terms, there's no free lunch, someone has to eat the losses. I'll leave it up to you to figure out who that someone might be......

I definitely remember melly saying he was shorting apple near the top, it was trading somewhere between $330-$355 when he said he had done it, it is up to all of you if you believe he got a price of $348, I don't really care. Also the NFLX was called correctly as well.

However what I have brought up before, and poly is now perhaps eluding to, is why AAPL? Your reasons for shorting it (all correct btw) will affect a number of other companies as well. AAPL will probably fall, but other companies will fall more.

I am willing to bet that my NFLX will fall more than your AAPL. Lets see what happens.

Menelaus
It would appear you have shorted at good prices. Congrats.
But your job is still only half done unfortunately.
Don't get greedy.
As is being commonly observed, by you in particular, there is currently a huge disconnect between the US stock mkt and the US economy.
I personally would not sleep well with large short US equity positions.
But I'm a wimp at heart.