AAPL - is anyone paying attention?

It has nothing to do with volume. NASDAQ is a weighted index (unlike the DOW) with AAPL a dominant 20+pc weight. NASDAQ announced a rebalancing of the index reducing AAPL's weight to almost half of that. Combine this defensive action by NASDAQ with the Steve Jobs health situation, supply chain interruptions hitting earnings in Q4 and the overall US and global economy slipping into another recession and all the arrows are pointing SOUTH, not NORTH. When Americans are faced with a choice of filling their SUV's with petrol or buying an ipad, I think I know which they'll choose.  Good luck those staying long AAPL. As I stated before I'm MASSIVELY short.

polybot, you should stick to playing silly games on here otherwise your infatuation with all things Apple will lead you to ruin.

NASDAQ is an index, not a predictor?!?!  Did you have to think hard to come up with this golden nugget Captain Obvious,  or was it a spur of the moment thing? The rest of your statement that the "re-weighting is market cap based and inline with current prices" is beyond laughable SINCE IT'S STATING THE OBVIOUS to anyone who has even a remote interest in these markets. The entire premise of my original post was not WHY technically they were doing it, but rather WHY NOW, their motivation for doing NOW. And since I stopped believing in existence of free markets since about the same age I was growing molar teeth, the timing of the announcement made me raise my eyebrow. In my opinion, here's WHY NOW: NASDAQ rode the AAPL juggernaut  to the top with AAPL's fourfold increase but now they are making sure they  minimize the negative impact on the index when  AAPL's  goes down. The index itself in not a predictor but the blokes running it are quite capable of that,  and I believe they are expecting an AAPL lower price in the future and they are protecting the index. I'm trading this belief.

You are wrong about the supply interruptions not impacting AAPL, or may even be handing them an advantage. Stop regurgitating generalities bounced around Apple fanboys websites and do some research on your own. I don't want to spend the energy to break it down for you, virtually component by component, nor the inclination. You're on your own on that one. (Hint: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/18/5-key-ipad-parts-that-came-from-japan/).  Preferential contracts are only good if your buying parts "off the shelf" and you get first dibs. They're of no use when the factory that makes your highly engineered and specific to your product parts, has either shut down completely for a while or is running at half capacity because of power outages. Unless Japan urgently discovers a miraculous way of fixing their power grid issues, earnings will be impacted PERIOD.

Last and certainly not least, do you know what the average cost of unleaded gasoline was in NY state was yesterday? How about California? Illinois? Do you even know how to find out? (Hint: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ten-states-where-gas-prices-bite-hardest-2011-04-19?link=kiosk). It's easy to want to have all things shinny, glitzy and overpriced in pursuit of your American dream when you're been fed a bunch of lies that recovery is right around the corner . Not so easy when you realize real recovery is nowhere to be seen more than two years into this, your equity in your home keeps declining, your taxes and an assortment of other fees are going up, your healthcare costs have gone up around 20pc in the last year, you lost or are about to lose your job, your unemployment benefits have run out, your grocery bill just want up 20pc and petrol another 30pc in just the last two months. And that's just for starters.........they'll buy ipads my arse.

Here's another morbid prediction for you. Steve Jobs won't make it to the end of the year. And if you think the market has priced in an "apple without steve" then you are in for a nasty surprise.

You posted you are long AAPL. I posted I'm massively short. Time will settle this argument for us sooner rather than later, and only one of us can be right......

I knew it would serve no purpose arguing with an apple fanboy. In a JIT environment, the ONLY company apparently not affected by supply chain interruptions is AAPL because.......they just happen to have "reserve inventory"....LOL.

Perhaps you should be made aware that Americans are also lining up in the unemployment line, the mortgage default line, the maxed credit card line, the food stamp line and that a recession followed EVERY time petrol prices shot over $4/gal in the US. Have you checked the $DX lately?

Jobs "effectively" left AAPL 3 months ago, yes, but Jobs still equals Apple in the mind of the market, and that's what counts. I hope I'm wrong about my morbid prediction but I suspect before year end we'll find out....some of us the hard way.

And I didn't realize that we're trading with a 14hr planning horizon, my mistake.

You can do what you want biscuits, it's your money after all.

My trade stands.

"There is no substance to the rumors that iphone4 has reception issues" - Steve Jobs, June 24, 2010

"The dropped calls complaints are blown out of proportion. There is no problem with the iphone4 reception if it's held properly" - Steve Jobs, July 6, 2010

"There is a design problem with the antenna of iphone4 and we've already taking steps to correct it" Steve Jobs, July 16, 2010


Yes, I believe everything that Apple says, absolutely everything........

Hmmmm..."Staggering" demand but ipad sales are down. And the apple fanboys I think missed this part of the call because they erupted in orgasmic rapture with the Q2 beat:

* APPLE SEES Q3 EPS ABOUT $5.03, EST. $5.25



It's your last chance to go short this week, fanboy.

menelaus, i dont understand why you have to be so vocal towards people with different ideas.
polybot wants to be long, you want to be short, so be it, that s called a market. (personally i have a slight preference for the long camp and thats s even if i dont like their products. but they sell, even the ipad which is useless. the company is delivering results, hoard cash, and even more, hoards talented people)
there are more shares in the spx that are worth much less hype imo, ready to be shorted. although, again, i think the spx could be rallying for few more months.
one last comment though, lets leave the life of people out of the discussions, it s really bad taste.
even in america, the day it will happen - and hopefully in many yrs from today - no one would sell the aapl shares because it woul be seen as inelegant. pecunia olet,  in these circumstances.

no, i posted the wrong date.. :-)

@ JW

I wish you contributed to this forum on a regular basis instead of stepping from behind the curtain every now and then feeling compelled it seems to always provide commentary on my posts and only my posts. I usually respect your opinions but I would suggest a refresher course in elementary english comprehension for you. If you scroll up, and spend the time to read carefully, leaving your personal biases at the door, you'll be able to see that it is not I who berated polybot but rather the other way around. I stated the reasons why I feel the index was rebalanced NOW and answered the question WHY NOW. Polybot doesn't agree and that's fine, but spewing rubbish that have nothing to do with my original post and only serving the purpose of "justifying" a long position, is only just that....RUBBISH. Everyone trades with their own money on the line, so if polybot wants to be long that's fine by me, but that doesn't mean I agree with his position and I should swallow the apple cult mania rubbish he is posting.

@ polybot

My point was simply to demonstrate that Apple has made misleading statements in the past, coming right from the very top, so if you want to believe this nonsense about not anticipating supply interruptions, then believe it at your own peril. Some of our clients are located in Japan and the information we're getting from them paints a lot more dire picture on what is happening in Japan than the one you are getting from reading your local daily.

I called you a fanboy because only those blinded by the apple glitz would keep spewing rubbish about "staggering" demand and miss what is really happening in the US economy at the moment. They are about to be rudely introduced to a lower standard of living, and one I doubt affords them to continue to binge on all things shinny and glitzy. I'll keep an eye out for petrol prices in the US, while you keep reading the apple cult sites, and time will tell us who's right.

In the meantime, why don't you both bugger off.

poly-  are you saying mellannus is " massively short' AAPL? Don't tell me he ACTUALLY posted  a trade?

What price and how far underwater is he? I bet he did'nt post a price?

He really is a laughable character. And an annoying imbecile.Maybe he has dried fish in his eyes?

AAPL have done brilliantly for investors. The stock has risen 188% in the last two years. Anyone who shorted them would have done very well to change his mind pronto, otherwise a gnawing resentment could gain a hold.

before buggering off ( i ll come back to it later )

menelaus, im one of the few here who reads what you say, and im one of the few here who think you know your stuff. why am i compelled to come and talk about your stuff then? firstly, for the above reasons.
no need to chat with people who offer no substance.
but also because you push your arguments with too much attitude, and you seem to enjoy only the controversy.
anyone who doesnt agree with your views , will end up in financial ruin as you r the only one who knows how to preserve wealth; everyone who doesnt share your opinion must be a villain, as only you got a nice and well respected job; everyone who claim to make money on a trade you dont like must have dreamt it, everyone who thinks differently is irresponsible and will run his family into poverty.. and so on. finally, even the people you claim to respect, if they dare to move a critic, they can bugger off.
take it easy, i dont know why you take everything so emotionally.
being too emotional in financial matters, make you very weak when it comes to decision making. you dont trade anymore the news and fundamentals, but you end up trading your ego only, which is usually a mistake.

why i dont come to put more comments on the forum? because now it s become a children playground, with people commenting only on each other and not on the markets, so there s no value in it.

lastly, on the bugger off, you ve gone so down in my consideration, that if you hadnt posted million times that you got 2 young daughters, i would have thought your pc had been hijacked by a 12 yrs old boy.

anyway
happy easter and good luck next week to everyone,
jw

Agreed jw, the bickering is distracting and annoying. in a strange way though, these open and anonymous forums full of cranks, trolls and fantasists alongside honest and accurate info adds value to the argument, even Menelaus.
happy easter to all.

Here's a question: why apple?

When the collapse of the US economy arrives, it is not just apple that is going to be up the swanny is it?

The reasons you are suggesting for shorting apple are going to have an even bigger impact on plenty of other companies. So why the obsession with wanting to short apple?

You are obviously trading your ego again. Very dangerous.

You obviously hate apple for some reason, this is obvious by your fanboy comments. I'm guessing you are a PC gamer nerd (this is obvious by the fact that you are such a loser).

You shouldn't trade your hatred or your love for something. You should trade facts. I want to short apple as well, but the time hasn't arrived yet. Yes, you might get lucky and call the exact top, but more likely, you will lose another 30% in the mean time, whilst I swan in later on, when it is actually on it's way down, and get a better entry point with no risk.

Looks like ben was right again. You and your ego are very, very dangerous.

Or you could, you know, answer the question?

I'm not sure why you go into a tantrum when anyone dares question your opinion.

As for this thread - why does everyone have an obsession with apple? This applies to both the people desperately wanting to short it, as well as the people saying it is the only stock they ever want to own.

This is another thing of egos - you either want to be the person who rode it all the way from $10 to $500, or you want to be the person who managed to short it before it crashed 50%. What exactly does this achieve other than bragging rights down the pub?

If any of you actually did a bit of research, you could find a list as long as my c0ck of better companies to to be buying/shorting. But I guess telling your mates that you made a gazillion quid on AAPL is somehow better than telling them you made it on a company no one has ever heard of isn't it? I know plenty of wide boys like you lot - none of them know what they are doing, and despite all their bragging, most are in debt up to their eyeballs.

who's AAPL? is he a sprinter or a router? who trains him?

It sounds like the Canadian had a few too many last evening.........but well done on your $30K+ super. The only problem for you though is that this is the wrong forum to display that kind of exuberance,  I doubt half the posters on this forum would even know what super is.......well done anyways.

Mr Bean, it sounds like you missed an opportunity to go short AAPL.......and I hate to be the one to break the news to you but you went short gold at the absolute worse time and got totally decimated, and now you came late to the party going long gold also at the wrong time and you are about to get decimated again. I loaded up on a double leveraged gold short ETF (GLL) last Thursday, we'll see how it plays out when Ben (no, no, not you, the Ben that counts, the one with Chairman in front of his name, that Ben) tells us this week "no mas"........for now at least.

Seriously though, do something to control your rants, it's getting nearly impossible to make any sense of your posts anymore.

Since my good friend the Canadian paid us a visit and never bothered to answer your question, let me try to help you.

In an economy that just about every indicator is showing heading for a serious recession, what do you think is likely to suffer first:

the demand for food?
the demand for fuel?
the demand for clothes?
the demand of other of life's essentials?
the need to pay for health care?
the need to pay taxes and a myriad of other fees?
the need for things related to education?



or, the "staggering" demand for ipads?


That's why Apple.

15 Things About the US Economy You Could Easily Miss if You Bought into the Apple Hype Or 15 reasons why you should take a MASSIVELY short position on AAPL:

1. Unemployment (U6) rising
2. Average hours worked decreasing
3. Average annual income decreasing
4. Number of homes in foreclosure increasing
5. Average home price dropping
6. Student loans surpass Credit Card loans
7. Number of credit cards defaulting increasing
8, Number of student loans defaulting increasing
9. Divorce rate increasing
10. Gasoline prices increasing
11. Food prices increasing
12. Taxes increasing
13. Health costs rising
14. 43 million on SNAP
.
.
.
15. Steve Jobs is perceived as Apple





again, i dont want to spoil a good story, but you shud refresh some of your statistics, as they look a bit stale.


1. Unemployment (U6) rising

unemployment: u3 ( the nfp we all look at ) is dropping from a high of 10.2 to 8.9 last reading.
anyway, even if you want to take u6, it s dropped similarly from 17.3 ( h2 2009 ) to 15.7 last reading.

2. Average hours worked decreasing

last reading was for a 34.3 hours per week, on the rise form a low of 33.7 in june09
the highest reading was -twice only- in the booming 2007 at 34.7, with normal highs in times of expansion around 34.5 or 34.6. current level is closer to expansion readings than recession, and def coming up.

3. Average annual income decreasing

hourly earnigns are up 1.7% yoy ( and we know working hours are expanding slightly )
personal income was up 0.3% yoy in april, form +1.1% up in march ( so in case we have a flattening out of the increase, but def not a decrease of personal income ). last time we had a negative reading was in july 09. in meantime gdp per head in the us increased from 45590 to 46350usd.


7. Number of credit cards defaulting increasing

boa and citi both annouced the lowest defaul rae in 2yrs on credit cards ( citibank ads recently as on the 16th april ).
in america from 1yr ago deliquencies dropped from 5.30 to 3.59% , while charge offs decreased ( or better, halved ) from 10.87% to 5.87% in 1yr


9. Divorce rate increasing

this one puzzles me, as normally a higher divorce rate is associated to more liberal and richer economies. divorce rate has been increasing steadily from the 60s till these days, in parallel to the economic growth. funnily enough anyway, divorce rate is today at 3.4%, stable from 2009 and lower compared to the readings of 3.5 and 3.6 of 2008 and 2007.


10.11.12.13

very true.
although the gdp per head in ppp has been stable and the americans still enjoy a relatively high position in this particular table ( which reads : qatar, luxemburg, bermuda, macau, norway, uae, brunei, channel islands, singapore, kuwait, foroe islands, usa, the other 200 countries ). in fact they only got overtaken during the crisis yrs by the faroe and macau.


there are maybe many more reasons to see apple shares dropping, but in fact, if the sales/results/profits all went beyond expectations when the states were really in recession, it s possible that the trend continues now with the economy in slightly better shape ( although still weak, agreed ).


good luck tomorrow with big ben...
im short usd going into tomorrows speech and will be adding to shorts on any dips for the rest of the month.

Stop posting yet more utter rubbish Melanie and get back to your day job of flipping burgers at Macy d's