FAFH, nice to hear from you. I think I left money on the table but I didn't want to be broadsided with yet another "rescue plan to end all Greece rescue plans" over the weekend or by a surprise "massive liquidity injection to support price stability and job growth" by the FOMC next week. And Monday is a double POMO day.

Having said all that, perhaps I got out too early. The action today doesn't bode for the bulls and the AAPL chart is starting to look downright scary. In the last 10 years, on a triple witching day like today, only 13 of the weeks following it have been positive, none of them occurring in the month of June. In fact, the week after a June TWD has been negative for the DJIA for 19 consecutive years.

I'll have some thoughts to share after we hear what the FOMC says next week. After all, it is still my firm conviction, that the FED is the primary driver of all markets and have been since 2008. Good night, enjoy the weekend, we'll chat next week.

So let me get this straight.

When Melly claims to have successfully called a top to within a fraction of a %, despite never posting what entry price he got at the time, it is all well and good.

When anyone else does the same thing, they are all after timers.

You could not make it up.

Let's look at the facts:

Melly says he is shorting AAPL, never posts the price he did it at, but claims it was at $248.

Whippet says he has added NFLX to his list of shorts (there for all to see on my other thread), never posts the price, but didn't claim to short at the exact top either.

Yet apparently, I am the after timer and not melly. You could not make this up. I actually thought you had turned over a leaf melly, but I guess that is bipolar disorder for you. Back to your old mentally deranged ways.

You are doing the exact same thing that you have tried to accuse others of on here. You claim to have shorted at the exact top without ever posting the price you did it at before hand. (no doubt, if AAPL had rallied, you would have claimed to have shorted at the higher price, rather than at $330 which seems a lot more likely.

Whippet, and that's the last time I'll call you that if you keep insisting on calling me Melly, PUT THE POST UP. If it's on "your other thread" it should be easy for you to find and put it up. I don't have the time to go look for it. Otherwise STFU........your "it will rain......yesterday" calls are getting a little tiring.

A lot of blurring here but the OP posted at $339 and now the stock is $320.

@ MrBean

Your father marrying his first cousin is starting to show.

If you don't think knowing how money gets created while opining on a financial forum is important then calling your an epic ignoramus is flattering you. Allow me to summarize your valued contributions on this forum over time. If the AUD goes down overnight, you'll show up in the morning telling us you were massively short and made huge money in your sleep. If the AUD goes up overnight, you'll show up in the morning telling us you were massively long and made huge money in your sleep. If the the AUD goes down overnight, you'll show up in the morning telling us you were massively short and made huge money in your sleep. If the AUD goes......well, I think you get the point.

As for the rest, it's pretty difficult for you to make a contribution when you couldn't describe how we calculate inflation in the UK, nor could you define what inflation really is, you haven't a clue that hyperinflation is not just "high inflation", you don't understand nor could you describe the various iterations of QE by the FED, how they were executed nor what they intended to achieve, you put a post up to discuss "what IF the FED doesn't do QE3" an entire three weeks after the FED stated there will be no QE3 for now, you don't understand nor could you describe what derivatives are or how they work or why they are such a danger to the financial system, you posted you don't follow charts in your trading (I'm not convinced you even know how to read one) yet you show a tremendous lack of understanding of fundamentals - what's left then a roll of the dice?, evidently you haven't a clue how options get traded, I can go on and on and on but I'll stop here.......yet you expect me to take you seriously.

Your contributions as a result are limited to ad hominem attacks and worthless statements, often expressed loudly and forcefully. If you have nothing of value to add, then stop wasting time and space. STFU and over time and you might just learn something.






@ Whippet

I'm still waiting for you to PUT THAT POST up. Either put it up or go stand in the corner with MrBean.

First of all, you should have put up the ENTIRE post for context, not the heavily edited version you posted to spin the truth to your liking:

Whippet     Joined: 01 Oct 07
Replies: 4936 27 May 11 00:13 
careful melly, this is almost becoming a love-in. Are you feeling ok?  You make some good points. I think a few of us should take a step back, and keep it more friendly.

Back to this thread. I now have an options account. Haven't used it yet, whilst I figure out what I'm doing with it.  There's another company I think may be worth adding to the list - Netflix. This essentially seems like a piece of crap to me, and an expensive one at that. PE of 75. With QE2 about to come to an end, this could be an excellent time to short.

I'm thinking that Jan13 puts might be a good shout for trading this? thoughts?





I seems like I owe you an apology. I clearly misinterpreted the  "I am THINKING that Jan 13 puts MIGHT BE a good shout for trading this" and the fact you had just gotten your options account and were still figuring out what you are doing as to mean well.......I'm thinking about it !!! Silly me, when clearly the even more confident  "MAY BE worth adding to the list" should have been a big hint that you went massively short. The "thoughts?" at the end of your post was the icing on the cake in causing total bewilderment for me when I took it to mean "what do you think before I trade this" as opposed to the obvious correct meaning of "any thoughts about my massive short position". Oh well, live and learn.

Clearly I need to take time off from this financial stuff and take a course on improving my english comprehension skills. My call of "my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX" in response to your "thoughts?" comment was not succinct enough, extremely vague and clearly lacking conviction. I will try my best to be more clear and direct next time. I hope you accept my sincere apology. I also hope you sarcasm meter is working.

Let me also go on record here that I am THINKING that MAY BE I'll short the market next week, or go long, depending on what MIGHT happen. Now that I've shared my positions with you , I will report the outcome at the end of the week. Wish me luck as I plan to take massive positions of biblical proportions.

Max, huge hat tip for you. You nailed it.

I'm not really interested in what others trade, nor am I interested in sharing my own trades on here (for reasons I stated many times before on here) to be honest. What I am interested in, more so than posting an actual trade, is the explanation of why someone feels a certain trade might be a winning trade, or not. I'm also very interested, probably more than anything actually, in engaging in debates about where the overall financial crisis is headed, and the global economy at large.

I took exception to what Whippet had posted because I was very aware of the "I'm thinking about it" post, hell, I responded to it, which he later tried to spin as an actionable post. It was not. He was thinking about it and was asking for input. He never followed up to confirm that he actually did do it and I have a feeling that if NFLX had gone the other way, we'd never hear anything about it again. A lot of posts one here have a tendency to hide behind opaque language and escape clauses (if, may be, perhaps, could be, seems like, etc.) and Whippet's post was no different.

Max, I understand your point.

Whippet, obviously your sarcasm meter is defective. I actually thought you turned over a leaf, from being an immature poster prone to throwing temper tantrums when questioned about something you posted that didn't make any sense, to someone who could actually contribute something of value on this forum. Sadly, I was wrong.

But just to show you that I'm a bigger person than you:


Whippet     Joined: 01 Oct 07
Replies: 4936 06 Jun 11 21:52 
.............
Now as to melly's question as to what you can trade to profit from this knowledge. This is what we should be focusing on. I would like to be enlightened as to what people's ideas for the USD or t-bills etc are going to do, as I frankly don't have much idea about either, and would like to learn.
...............


Whippet     Joined: 01 Oct 07
Replies: 4936 27 May 11 00:13 
...............
Back to this thread. I now have an options account. Haven't used it yet, whilst I figure out what I'm doing with it.  ..........



I will teach you, that's what I'm here for, but you need to stop behaving like a petulant child first and pay attention.

"Whippet, obviously your sarcasm meter is defective. I actually thought you turned over a leaf, from being an immature poster prone to throwing temper tantrums when questioned about something you posted that didn't make any sense, to someone who could actually contribute something of value on this forum. Sadly, I was wrong.

But just to show you that I'm a bigger person than you:"

melly melly melly

I've yet to see whippet " throw a temper tantrum" YOU on the other hand throw about a dozen a week. There a big difference between throwing a tantrum as you do when anyone disagrees with you and getting annoyed at   your " I know all  and you plebs know nothing" posts.

  Anyone who  trades in real life  knows your a fraud and can see through you like a pane of glass.You may have some of the novices fooled but your not fooling the rest of us.

  Your singular claim to fame here is you posted a trade which was 95% aftertiming.Thats it.

You will never get any admiration from real traders here melly.I would  more admire someone posted 10 losing trades in a row, as long as they posted them B4hand , than  take an ounce of notice of  an habitual after trader.

   Your too  thick to realise it, but I'll let you in on a secret- real traders rarely, if ever descend on another trader who  publically gets it wrong. Becaause they know they got it wrong, just yesterday.

Now "But just to show you that I'm a bigger person than you: "----- what a dead giveaway that is.This is what your truley here for  melly-- your out  of control ego OR your outrageous little man syndrome.Either or.

  Melly- you want some respect here-1.

post some real trades WITH prices

2. Stop knocking other traders

3. Eliminate your know all attitude.

4.  Get a few things right.

5. In general stop being a complete ****

6. Drop the multi ID's {eg canadian} to back up your absurdity.


of course you will do none of that, and so you will continue to get a pizzling, just like you deserve.[:x]

  Do that consistanly for a year, to get you out of the hole you dug 4 yourself and  you  might get some acknowlegement. Or  dont do it and remain fair game.

Here's the real reason why you started a new thread, to divert attention from my earlier post (Jun 16) on the other thread:

You keep skirting the question. You have always shouted "buy,buy,buy" even when the share price hit top after the earnings report. You were always making the case on here that "Apple to the moon" and posted your own opinions why and supporting data from those "tend to be conservative" analysts who also had Apple heading to the moon. Pity anyone who offered a dissenting opinion (enter Menelaus). It also seems like your preferred method of trading is options.

Hence, here's my question AGAIN, that you haven't bothered answering the first time since it appears all your thoughts are only focused on how to best slander my successful trade:



Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 707 16 Jun 11 14:05 
fanboy, we can trade insults ad infinitum on here, I assure you I can spar with the best of them, but fundamentally I only have ONE question for you.

Since you have been consistently spewing "go long Apple" on this forum and you were presenting predictions by "analysts - who tend to be conservative", most indicating Apple heading to $425 and sometimes well beyond, how many calls have you bought at around $352 and will be expiring worthless the next few months?

Your posts are below:


polybot     Joined: 20 Oct 03
Replies: 1165 19 Apr 11 11:49
Looks like I'm long AAPL.



polybot     Joined: 20 Oct 03
Replies: 1165 21 Jan 11 07:09
analysts tend to be conservative...
19-Jan-11 Ticonderoga raises target from $450 to $550
19-Jan-11 Piper Jaffray raises target from $438 to $483
19-Jan-11 UBS raises price target from $415 to $465.
19-Jan-11 Barclay raises target from $420 to $450
19-Jan-11 BofA Merrill raises price target from $425 to $450
19-Jan-11 JP Morgan raises target to $450
19-Jan-11 Goldman Sachs raises target to $450
19-Jan-11 Susquehanna raises price target from $390 to $445.
19-Jan-11 Deutsche Bank raises Price Target to $440
19-Jan-11 Kaufman Brothers raises target from $415 to $438
19-Jan-11 Canaccord Genuity raises target to $432
19-Jan-11 Janney Capital raises target to $430
19-Jan-11 Wedbush raises target from $405 to $430
19-Jan-11 RBC Capital raises target from $395 to $425
19-Jan-11 CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets: Target raised to $425
19-Jan-11 Oppenheimer raises target from $395 to $425
19-Jan-11 Stifel Nicholas raises target from $400 to $420
19-Jan-11 Citi raises target from $390 to $415
19-Jan-11 Morgan Stanley raises target from $375 to $410
19-Jan-11 BMO Capital: Target from $355 to $405.
19-Jan-11 Gleacher & Co raises target to $400
18-Jan-11 Cramer raises target price to $400.
19-Jan-11 Needham: Target raised to $375

There's so much copy and paste quoting on here that it's drudgery trying to attribute anything to anyone in this thread except that Apple were $339 when Menelaus advised selling the stock and now they are $315.

So the winner is Menelaus, although his dislike for the company does seem rather personal.

Will you be buying at any price, Menelaus?

UBiscuits, the short answer to your question is I don't know. Or, at least I don't know with enough conviction to gamble on it.

There are those who will argue that Apple is in "cheap" territory now. They will argue that Apple is sitting on a lot of cash (as of the end of last quarter, their liquid assets exceeded their liabilities by $51 billion - that's about $55 per share), their competition (Nokia, RIMM) is imploding and their branding strategy is light years ahead of anyone else. That's the bullish argument.

I don't belong in the "bulls" group however. Why? Because most of time the bulls case fails to consider the serious challenge Android has become for Apple, the margin squeeze Apple is starting to face, growing competition in the tablet area where Apple got the jump on everyone, no new products, just enhanced iterations of same products, Steve Jobs is a dying man (the market still sees the face of Steve as Apple in my opinion), a slow down by every measure in the global economy (is there anyone left who hasn't downgraded their growth expectations for the rest of 2011 and 2012?), and MOST IMPORTANTLY it appears that the FED is slowing down their money printing orgy that has been the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT reason for the markets levitating (we'll know more this week but I doubt they'll be any surprises).

The other concern I would have right now if I was betting "long AAPL", the chart has turned very bearish with all kinds of DMAs dipping below the 200. Reality is AAPL has come down from $363 in February to about $315 today - that's more than a 10pc drop at a time when most analysts (the ones polybot keeps reminding us "tend to be conservative" have been slapping a big BUY recommendation on Apple - has anybody put a SELL on the stock? ). In addition, we are now seeing AAPL down on NASDAQ up days like yesterday for example, not a very bullish sign for AAPL considering it was the stock that "carried" that index in the past.

What's next? I think we are at a crossroads right now. Unless Greece is resolved soon (by that I mean, find a way to kick the can down the road again to keep the markets happy - the ONLY true resolution for Greece is default) and Bernanke starts printing again, the markets overall will continue to head south. I can easily see AAPL under $300 in this scenario considering all the other headwinds I mentioned above the company is facing. If the spigot of loose money keeps on going, then markets will begin an ascend again (my guess, about 10pc) before reality sets in how broken the global economy is with structural problems and start a deep dive. We'll get a much better idea how to trade this later this week.

UBiscuits, the number of individual companies currently in my portfolio is very easy to remember....ZERO.

By enlarge, over the past couple of years, I only delved into buying/selling individual company stock only a handful of times. I find it humorous that although most posters on here (not all) appear to be into day trading, they post recommendations on individual company stock. A lot easier in my opinion, and a lot more profitable if you get it right, is to trade the market through ETFs especially the 2X and 3X leveraged ones. Day trading is all about volatility and timing moves right in very short increment of time. Identifying companies whose stock may do well over time because of whatever factors one might think relevant (also funny these same posters seem to always think for some reason that the information they have in their position which is always in the public domain is not priced in - I thought the market was forward looking) is investing, not trading.

I missed out on Apple but I have done very well overall in my trading through ETFs both on the long and short side (FAS/FAZ, TZA/TMA, etc. etc.). I never held positions for longer than a few days. If you get it right, get your profits and run, otherwise natural decay in leveraged ETFs will eat your profits very fast. Those who understood what QE meant when the FED first announced their ultra loose monetary policy have done well on the markets. I'm an ultra bear when it comes to assessing the health of the global economy, the state of the financial system (nothing has been fixed, nothing has changed) but that doesn't mean I'm shorting the markets. I have been posting ad nauseum on this forum for anyone who cared to listen that the markets have disconnected with the real productive economy. The only that mattered and STILL DOES.......FED easy money, liquidity.

I'm being tongue-in-cheek but I don't feel too far away from the truth in saying that the playbook since this whole mess started back in 2008 has been as follows, and very easy to trade: bailout, bailout, moral hazard, print money, SOFT PATCH, print money, moral hazard, bailout, SOFT PATCH, bailout, print money and print some more money. Go long the markets when no one is allowed to fail, money is printed in reckless abandon and governments malinvest capital they don't have in stimulus programs, short the market in the SOFT PATCHES. That simple.

Banwana, if, or when, the can hits the wall can mean different things to different people. Here's what it means to me:

1. The financial system is more unstable today than when the crisis started in 2008, (think derivatives, undercapitalization, OBS entries and suspension of M2M).

2. The global economy at large is in worse shape today than when the crisis started in 2008 despite massive liquidity injections (think UK & US negative real growth, think China bubble). The structural issues haven't been dealt with (so far only malinvestment by desperate governments and the more information that trickles out of Japan, the more I'm beginning to espouse the idea that the "black swan" for the global economy may have already happened......it's called Fukushima).

3. Government balance sheets are in worse shape today than what they were in 2008 to be able to continue the moral hazard of bailouts and absorb defaulting private debt when (not IF) the next crisis happens.

What does this all mean for now? DEFLATION. What will be the response, since deflation is the enemy of the FED/CBs, a downdraft in the organic economy, and makes debt repayment (huge problem right now) more onerous?

The only thing central banks know how to do.....flood the system with more easy money. Ultra low interest rates for an "extended time" that no longer bare any relationship to correctly pricing risk and print, print, print and print some more fiat in an attempt to keep plugging the hole left in financial institution balance sheets as a result of asset deflation, and fund bankrupt government deficits. The result? Hyperinflation, that's were we are headed.

I can post a lot more but I'm getting a little tired of the lemmings screaming and yelling at me on here (enter lucky31 and Mrben stage left) virtually every time I post.

Menelaus
"---Hyperflation that's where we are headed. "
Fair enough but I still think you should add imho. But maybe that's a given in the context of your post.
Anyhow, you've got my attention that's for sure.
Would you be bold enough to stick your head out further and give a probability estimate on this call ?
Also for all my fellow non-economist laymen on here, how do you exactly seeing this scenario manifesting itself for the every day man in the street ?
What should they be doing currently to prepare themselves for any such event ( bear in mind many of them cannot or do not trade in exotic or even ordinary stock or bond investment vehicles ).

about apple and android, i understand the risk of competition.
but apparently - and thats from a friend who work for them - they are trademarking a lot of things which would make competition have to work very hard. to give you an example, i think the move with your finger from left to right at the bottom of the screen ( what you do when you switch on/off the iphone for exmaple ) , or the move with the thumb and index fingers widening to maximize the screen, they re all going to be apple patents and unlikely to be used by other devices.
the other thing that puzzles me is why america slowing down shud be bad for apple, they re really a global brand so as long as the world economy grows they still shud be fine ? in fact, with gadget-obsessed asia outperforming isnt america becoming less and less important?

i dont have a clue, this i know this is what apple is trying to do. i always suspected it but in fact  intellectual property is the most controversial area of law these days. at the UN they spend more time talking about patents than world conflicts.

Benny, whatever......you are a sad pathetic mug who has simply now become just....annoying.