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In the 15.15 at Chester it may just pay to keep things really simple. The favourite is Storm Moon and I have to say that rather than this price being based purely on form it has a huge amount to do with his draw in stall 1 & his front running style which is ideally suited to the Chester 5f track. The things we can say with a high level of certainty in this race, Storm Moon will bound out and attempt to make all as quickly as possible & it will be down to the others in the field to see if they are good enough to catch him.

It's nearly impossible to make up ground around Chester's tight bends so turning for home it's very possible that Storm Moon may have given the field a fair amount of work to do. At this point regardless of the result I'd expect Storm Moon's price to shorten up & give us a trade. He has every chance of lasting home, his other two runs at the track he's been very poorly drawn but has still run with credit to demonstrate that with conditions & the draw in his favor that he's capable of a very big run today.

Storm Moon can be backed for 2 points at 5.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 16.25 at Chester the Tom Dascombe trained Ballista is well drawn in stall 3 and loves nothing more than to dictate the fractions from the front. Masamah is the current favourite for this race & whilst he also likes to front run he's also one who I would suggest underperformed last season & he can be inclined to throw the towel in from halfway.

I think that if Ballista does manage to grab an early lead it could be curtains for Masamah although even if that doesn't happen he could just tow Ballista into the race and allow the Dascombe horse to take things up in the 2nd half of the race. Ballista is returning from a busy winter schedule in Meydan and has had a shorter break than his other rivals making their seasonal re-appearances (including Masamah).

If Ballista hits the front at any point I'd expect his price to shorten up during the race & give us at the very least a trade.

Ballista can be backed now for 2 points at the books (fred, victor, lads). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.50 at Yarmouth I think we can gain a trade for the front running Love You Louis who has had 3 outings on the all weather this year, in one he was victorious and he traded odds on in his other two outings. In all he's been available to trade on in 8 of his last 10 races due to his front running style meaning he's nearly always in with a live chance come the 1f pole.

This race is fairly open and many of these runners are coming from all weather winter campaigns. Love You Louis has been going very close in this grade already so providing he translates a similar level of form to turf then he should at the very least go much shorter in running than his start price & he has every chance of lasting home for all the money.

Love You Louis can be backed for 2 points at 9.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.55 at Beverley there are some pretty big prices being offered about the front running Balinka even though she has a strong chance on form.

She's a natural front runner meaning she's been available to trade on in 6 of her 8 racecourse starts to date including in all of her last 4 races. She didn't quite fire on her last start last season (still traded) but she can be excused that run on heavy ground. The time before that in a better class of race than she competes in today she managed a place.

Today's race is competitive enough & she is making her seasonal reappearance which helps to explain the big price however her stable is in very good form and she is capable of being right in the mix if she runs to her best on ground conditions which are in her favor from a good draw.

Balinka can be backed now for 2 points at 17.0 at the books (victor, stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 12.5, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 10.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Lots of big races going on today & after looking through every flat card it's fallen to nearly the last race of the day for me to find what I consider to be the best bet.

In the 20.20 at Doncaster the Marco Botti trained filly Summer Dream is the selection. In her reappearance in a similar race at Kempton she was poorly drawn & had to sit & suffer around the outside of Kempton's tight bend. Inspite of this extra energy which was expended to maintain a position she still stuck on in the finish and did not go out like a light as would have been expected.

She's been available to trade on in her last 4 races of 6 starts total so she's starting to perform to a consistent level and has really got the hang of things in her latest races. With a fairer track she should go very close today and should trade shorter in running if she's in the mix going into the final furlongs.

Summer Dream can be backed now for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 16.20 at Chepstow I think we can gain a trade from the Mark Johnston runner Sennockian Star. This horse is a typical Johnston front runner & has been available to trade on in each of his 9 races to date. He's managed to slip the field & trade below even money in all of his last 5 starts and has had terrible luck as he's been nabbed by just one rival each time.

He's been performing well in this grade & that elusive victory is not far away. Either way is run style is predictable enough that he should definitely go much shorter in running at some point.

Sennockian Star can be backed now for 2 points at 5.5 at the books (boyles). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 17.20 at Bath Picansort is bound to be popular given he has a turf mark nearly 20lbs below his AW weather one. However in spite of that this horse has never fired properly on the turf before so it wouldn't be a surprise at all if he didn't give his running.

However one who is remarkably consistent & put in a great performance on this course just two weeks ago is the 7 year old gelding Where's Reiley. That day he lead the field and traded down to 1.55 in the run before getting nabbed on the line. That was over 6f so today's drop back to the minimum distance should suit just fine. In fields of 10 or more at Bath it's advantageous to be drawn high & our horse is drawn in 13 of 15.

Hopefully he can go from the front again & make use of his lower turf mark to land the spoils but either way he should trade much shorter in the run at some point.

Where's Reiley can be backed now for 2 points at 6.5 at the books (victor, stan james, hills). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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The 16.20 at Bath is a wide open handicap which will likely be won by the biggest improver and I like the profile of the 3 year old colt Ivanhoe. In his last two starts last season he traveled like the best horse in the race at one point galloping all over the field which caused him to trade at below 1/3rd of his BSP on both occassions.

He wasn't disgraced in his 1st try in handicap company last time out in a similar race to that which he competes in today . It wouldn't take a huge amount of improvement over the winter to see him right in the mix in this race and if he can travel through the middle part in the way he did last year then at the very least he should trade much shorter in running.

Ivanhoe can be backed now for 2 points at 17.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 12.5 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 10.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 19.10 at Windsor the favourite Hanseatic has only had one visit to a racecourse last November where he won his maiden. He is a Galileo colt and is being very much priced up on reputation. He may well be too classy for this bunch of handicappers but given his lack of experience I definitely won’t be backing around 5/4 & even if he does get home it may not be totally straight forward.

The one I am interested in for a trade is the Clive Cox trained Greylami. This stable is in fantastic form currently with 50% of his last 20 runners being placed or better. Greylami has been running in better races on the All Weather than the one he competes in today and has performed with credit just going down by a short head in Janurary at Kempton. His all weather mark is much higher than his turf mark so having run off 88, 85 & 86 over the winter, today he runs off 76.

With his fitness assured and the stable in rude health I’m expecting a big run today. He’s likely to sit in mid field through the main part of the race before producing his challenge around 2f from home. He is a strong traveling sort & if he’s still going well when making up ground around 2-3f out then his price should shorten up for a trade.

Greylami can be backed now for 2 points at 9.0 at the books (bet365, hills). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.20 at Wolverhampton Moss Hill heads the market due to a good run last time out & timeform have suggested that he's hard to see past in this race. However, having watched the replay, the last day Moss Hill was allowed an uncontested lead, he could dictate the fractions to suit himself and appeared to have the run of the race to put in his good performance to finish 2nd.

There was a horse further back in the field who I thought was mor eye-catching given he was forced to sit in midfield untill getting a break which probably came just too late, he was finishing strongly but didn't quite get to Mr Moss or the eventual winner but finished a good 3rd. This was the Tony Carroll trained gelding Unlimited and this horse consistently puts in good performances. He's been available to trade on in 7 of his last 8 performances and given the sizable price discrepancy between him & Moss Hill his price looks pretty tasty at 5/1. A reversal in their placings would most definitely be no surprise to me.

Tom Queally has been booked for the ride today and I would expect the partnership to sit in midfield before arriving with their effort late into the home straight. Unlimited should be making good ground on the leaders in these latter stages & regardless of the result at some point his price should shorten up in running.

Unlimited can be backed now for 2 points at 6.0 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.4, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.85 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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