In the 17.20 at Bath Picansort is bound to be popular given he has a turf mark nearly 20lbs below his AW weather one. However in spite of that this horse has never fired properly on the turf before so it wouldn't be a surprise at all if he didn't give his running.
However one who is remarkably consistent & put in a great performance on this course just two weeks ago is the 7 year old gelding Where's Reiley. That day he lead the field and traded down to 1.55 in the run before getting nabbed on the line. That was over 6f so today's drop back to the minimum distance should suit just fine. In fields of 10 or more at Bath it's advantageous to be drawn high & our horse is drawn in 13 of 15.
Hopefully he can go from the front again & make use of his lower turf mark to land the spoils but either way he should trade much shorter in the run at some point.
Where's Reiley can be backed now for 2 points at 6.5 at the books (victor, stan james, hills). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.
Best of luck.
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