In the 16.20 at Chepstow I think we can gain a trade from the Mark Johnston runner Sennockian Star. This horse is a typical Johnston front runner & has been available to trade on in each of his 9 races to date. He's managed to slip the field & trade below even money in all of his last 5 starts and has had terrible luck as he's been nabbed by just one rival each time.
He's been performing well in this grade & that elusive victory is not far away. Either way is run style is predictable enough that he should definitely go much shorter in running at some point.
Sennockian Star can be backed now for 2 points at 5.5 at the books (boyles). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.
Best of luck.
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Winner over 7f as 2yo so one could presume that it's ideal distance could be todays 8f.
Blinkers first time also persuaded me to back it, but also laid my stake off in running, as you indicted, (mainly because my luck has been out of sorts since start of flat).