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Loved Up With This Trade

05 Jun 13 09:38
Tonight in the 20.15 at Ripon Yeeoow is rightly favourite after a victory at Ascot last time out in a race where the form has worked out fairly well. The issue is that this race today is a competitive enough handicap and his price is plenty short enough given the list of potential dangers. The one I'd like to take him on with is the 4 year old fillie Love Island, she has a strong traveling style which has enabled her to trade at the prices required in 12 of her last 14 races. She was victorious on her reappearance this year and looked to have progressed when being involved in a 4 way go at the line in a very similar race over course & distance just 2 weeks ago.

Since that race the ground has firmed up which should be in her favor and she has every chance of being right in the mix again come the finish line. She's likely to sit in mid field for the early part of her race before producing her effort between 2f & 1f. At this point as she makes her challenge I'd expect her price to at the very least shorten up in running.

Love Island can be backed for 2 points at 11.0 widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.30 Bobs Her Uncle has a perfect trading record being available at the prices required in all of his 7 racecourse starts. Whilst the fillie still hasn't registered a victory yet she's been getting closer being placed in each of his last 4 races. She's proven herself as more than capable of being right in the mix within this grade and from this current mark, it is surely only a matter of time before she gets her head in front but her consistency makes her a good trading option.

Bobs Her Uncle can sit on the speed or be covered up, either way she will make her challenge around 3f from home at this point she should make some headway and her price should shorten up for a trade.

Bobs Her Uncle can be backed for 2 points at 5.5 at the books (victor, stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Bullish Trade

04 Jun 13 08:29
In the 15.00 at Ripon I'm turning to the 3 year old gelding Noble Bull to trade. Last time out he should have been well out classed in a better race than the one he races in today however he traded from a BSP of 48.0 down to 2.72 in running & finished 2nd.  He has a solid enough trading record being available to trade in all of his last 5 outings. Positive tactics were used last time out to good effect & they brought about the desired improvement in performance.

Today's race is no where near as good so in my book a repeat performance should be enough to win, however regardless if positive tactics are used again then Noble Bull should trade much shorter in running at some point.

Noble Bull can be backed for 2 points at 6.5 at the books (lads, bet365). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Harbouring A Trade

03 Jun 13 08:05
Tonight in the 19.30 at Windsor I think we can eek a trade from the in form Poole Harbour. He's been placed in a couple of class 2 handicaps already this season so a drop down to a class 3 event today could be just what is required to get a victory. He is abe to sit both on the speed and be covered up in midfield before producing his run. I would personally rather he had a little more cover for longer than he got last time out so that we see his finishing speed used to best effect.

This horse is a battler & always keeps & finding when challenged so in a tough finish he's one to have in your corner. Available to trade on in every race so far this season Ryan Moore takes the ride today and the partnership have a very good chance for win purposes and should at the very lease trade much shorter in running at some point.

Poole Harbour can be backen now for 2 points at 5.5 at the books (lads & Betfair Fixed Odds). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.5 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Tribal Trade At Epsom

31 May 13 23:49
Early train to Epsom tomorrow so apologies for posting these overnight.

In the 16.50 at Epsom one who I think could be well handicapped for race like this is 4 year old gelding Caygua. Last time out he looked to be running a huge race at Newmarket when he was chopped off when making a run around 2f from home, he still recovered to claim 2nd place but I am left with the feeling that there could be more to come. He has a smooth traveling racing style which enables him to cruise onto the leaders heels on the bridle and has caused him to be available to trade on in 4 of his last 5 races.

Today useful claimer Robert Tart takes the ride and whilst a few of these have finished in front of him before he is able to meet them much better off at the weights and if this improving colt gets a decent run he can go very close and should at the very least go shorter in running at some point.

Caygua can be backed for 2 points now at 9.0 at the books (betfred, stan james, lads). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Two years ago in 2011 Captain Dunne finished 2nd in the Steller group handicap before going onto win the Epsom Dash off a mark of 105. This year just 3 weeks ago I put up Captain Dunne for a victory here in the Steller Group handicap http://stoozbet.com/15-15-chester-wednesday-8th-may/ That day he was a 12/1 shot and he traded at 1.33 in running before just getting touched off into 2nd. Today he goes in the Epsom Dash from a mark of 95 and I think that history has a seriously good chance of repeating itself.

The Epsom Dash is the fastest horserace in the world with a unique 5f downhill track. It suits Captain Dunne so well because this horse is built for speed. He struggles on other tracks because he often gets out in the lead but isn't quite able to sustain it for long enough. At Epsom this is less of an issue. With such a good performance at Chester I've been planning this bet today for a couple of weeks & the final ingredient to fall into place is the draw. This is the real clincher, over 5f at Epsom a high draw is favored and Captain Dunne is drawn in 18 of 20. This is on the stands side & should allow him to run the rail all the way to the finish line.

Clearly I'm not the only one to have noticed that Captain Dunne has a fantastic chance. Tom Segal, aka Mr Pricewise has also selected him which may affect the amounts you can get on. Nevertheless at 8.15am Ladbrokes will be going 9/1 about Captain Dunne and I will be taking every penny I can get. Given this is a trading blog I'll record the back price as 8/1 because you can get that with Bet365 & Coral at 8.30am, across 3 bookies people should be able to get what they require on.

If you back Captain Dunne at 9.0 for 2 points (10.0 with ladbrokes at 8.15 & 9.0 with Bet365 & Corals at 8.30). If you want 30% profit lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.8 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Hopefully A Good Trade

29 May 13 11:21
A short write up for Good Evans in the 16 40 at Nottingham.

He's been available to trade on in 4 of his last 5 starts including in 2 better class of races than he competes in today at Chester. There are question marks over many towards the head of the market and 10/1 is a price which will only get shorter either before the race or in running as he likes to go from the front.

Good Evans can be backed for 2 points at 11.0 at the books (fred). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Will We Get Another Trade?

28 May 13 08:03
In the 16.10 at Redcar I think we gan gain a trade from the re-appearing and lightly raced mare, Willbeme. She has a tremendous strike rate with 3 victories from her 6 racecourse starts and in two of the races where she wasn't victorious she traded heavily odds on in running.

She has lots of early speed and likes to be up with the pace, in her last outing last season she traded as low as 1.31 in running but wasn't quite able to sustain her effort over 6f. Having watched all of her past races I'm convinced that she's naturally a 5f horse and it's just been her class that has gained her the victories so far over 6f, the last f has always been a bit of a struggle.

Given she likes to be on the speed this can be used more to her advantage today especially with the step back in trip. She should at the very least trade much shorter in running at some point and has every right to improve, if she does so then anything can happen in the shake up.

Willbeme can be backed now for 2 points at 10.0 at the books (victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 7.2 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 6.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Turning To The Don To Trade

26 May 13 22:13
Over sprint distances at Windsor ideally you want to be dawn low and the horse with the perfect draw in stall 1 is the 4 year old colt Don Libre. He ended his season with a well deserved victory at Kempton where he had the early speed from a wide draw to get across & make the running, he still had enough in reserve to kick clear of the field. He was arguably unlucky the time before that when too much use was made of him too early & he was just grabbed in the final strides.

In those races Don Libre had to do a lot of the work early on to gain his prominent positions which leads me to think that there could be much more left in the tank. Today is his seasonal re-appearance however this time last year his come back race went perfectly as he ran out a 6 length winner so he should be ready to go today. One slight negative is that he hasn't shown great form on turf so far however with just 2 runs on the surface it's way to early to be writing him off just yet.

With a good draw to gain that prominent position we should see him trade much shorter in the run at some point & if he's come on over the winter then who knows what will happen going into the final furlong.

Don Libre can be backed now for 2 points at 8.5 at the books (paddy). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Last week I put Jamacian Bolt up for a trade here http://community.betfair.com/stoozbet/blog/2013/05/16/bolting-out-trading but he was then made a non runner. So the theory behind backing the horse is exactly the same for tomorrow: He goes in the 14.55 at York (saturday).

Jamacian Bolt was progressive last season notching up 3 victories and on his re-appearance this season he ran a good race over 6f trading from a BSP of 10.o down to 2.22 in play before fading in the final furlong into 5th place. In his last race of last season he finished 2nd by a neck to Jack Dexter who is now competing in group company, also that day behind him was Mass Rally who came out in a similar race last week over 6f & won.

Jamacian Bolt's form is stacking up right left & centre and the drop back in trip to 5f today should be exactly what is required given his early speed and the fact he wasn't quite able to sustain it over 6f. Jamaican Bolt's overall trading record is excellent being available at the required prices in 10 of his 11 races to date.

This is a pricewise race so fortunately we can take advantage of the prices reverting to those initially advertised by the bookmakers in the morning. At 8.30am William Hill will be going 8/1 about Jamaican Bolt so that's when you want to be getting stuck in.

Jamaican Bolt can be backed for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (Hills at 8.30am), if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.6, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.7 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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