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Another Goodwood Trade

24 May 13 08:28
In the 14.35 at Goodwood I think one who is entitled to go very well is the 8 year old gelding Harrison George. Today he goes in a class 4 handicap following up after a very good performance to finish 5th in a class 2 handicap at Newbury and other good performances in better races than the one he competes in today. He has lots of early speed to help him gain a prominent position early on but also has the stamina to see out 7 f very well.

It's been a while since he got his head in front but useful claimer Robert Tart has been booked to give him every assistance from the saddle taking off 5lbs. I'm expecting a bold showing and if he's in the mix coming to the 2f pole then his price should at the very least shorten up to give us a trade.

Harrison George can be backed now for 2 points at 11.0 at the books (boyles) and on Betfair. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 8.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 7.0 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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A Right Royal Trade

23 May 13 08:14
In the 14.35 at Goodwood I think we can gain a trade from the front running favourite King Of The Danes. He's got a healthy strike rate with 2 victories from his 5 racecourse starts and put in quite a taking performance last time out where he made all and held on to win fairly comfortably. He's been put up 6lbs for that victory however prior to that race he had finished a good 2nd in a class of race higher than today's contest. This gives me the impression that there could still be some more progression left in him as it's hard to tell just how hard he was working last time out in front.

Either way we can expect a bold showing from the 3 year old colt, which should mean he will trade shorter at some point during the run. He has every chance of defying the penalty and going in again in this grade.

Kind Of The Danes can be backed now for 2 points at 4.5 at the books (paddy, victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.3, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 2.9 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 16.40 at Brighton I like the chances of the 6 year old gelding Finlodex who is stepping up in distance after being tried recently over 1m. In his last 2 races he has been traveling powerfully but just appeared to be outspeeded in the finish & both times he was sticking on at the end to suggest that he may just improve for the step up in distance. Last time out he performed with credit on a firm surface at Bath which has a similar uphill finish to Brighton to suggest that he may go well in a handicap at this track.

With the consistency arriving this season he should be traveling powerfully coming into the home straight which should at the very least see him go much shorter in running. Given he's unexposed at the distance any improvement could be just what is required to take this contest at a healthy price.

Finlodex can be backed now for 2 points at 10.0 at widely at the books. If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 7.2, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 6.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Looking at todays cards it’s taken until the 20.10 at Windsor tonight to find a suitable bet/trade and it comes in the shape of the highly unexposed Godolphin runner, Ustura. The 4 year old gelding has had just 3 racecourse starts and after winning a maiden he finished 2nd in a very similar race to today’s contest at Haydock last September.

The real clincher is the horse he finished 2nd to at Haydock, Brockwell, has come out since and been placed twice in some valuable handicaps a grade higher than today’s race. So with some space form we are getting a picture that Ustura could be much better than those he competes against today. Whilst he is making his reappearance the form of the Saeed Bin Suroor stable has taken off in the last few days with 4 winners from his last 10 runners. These Bin Suroor horses clearly are ready to go & do not need the run!

The main danger in the field for me is Icebuster who I think could just improve for the step up in distance. Rather than back that unknown I’d rather stick with the emerging form line through Ustura and whilst I expect a bold showing from both I think the Ustura is more likely to trade shorter in the run.

Ustura can be backed now for 2 points at 5.0 at the books (paddy). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 3.7, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 3.2 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck

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Looking For A Soulful Trade

19 May 13 00:54
I'm planning a nice sunday lie-in hence posting this tonight as I don't expect the price to last long in the morning...

In the 15.10 for me the filly bringing the best form into the race is the Tim Easterby trained Body And Soul. She is yet to run a bad race and has gained 4 victories from her 6 racecourse starts. She likes to be prominent but races best when gaining a little bit of cover before coming with her run in the final 2f of the race. Her consistency makes her a great trading option and although she is making her reappearance I'm expecting a bold showing 1st time out in a handicap.

Any amount of progression may be possible from this filly making her an exciting horse to follow this season if she picks up right where she left off last season.

Body & Soul can be backed for 2 points at 6.5 now at the books (hills, victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck

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Bolting Out & Trading

16 May 13 00:46
In the 1st race today at York (13.45) I like the chances of the in form Jamaican Bolt. He was progressive last season notching up 3 victories and on his re-appearance this season he ran a good race over 6f trading from a BSP of 10.o down to 2.22 in play before fading in the final furlong into 5th place. In his last race of last season he finished 2nd by a neck to Jack Dexter who is now competing in group company, also that day behind him was Mass Rally who came out in a similar race yesterday over 6f & won.

Jamacian Bolt's form is stacking up right left & centre and the drop back in trip to 5f today should be exactly what is required given his early speed and the fact he wasn't quite able to sustain it over 6f. Jamaican Bolt's overall trading record is excellent being available at the required prices in 10 of his 11 races to date.

This is another pricewise race so fortunately we can take advantage of the prices reverting to those initially advertised by the bookmakers in the morning. At 9am Paddy Power will be going 7/1 about Jamaican Bolt so that's when you want to be getting stuck in.

Jamaican Bolt can be backed for 2 points at 8.0 at the books (paddy at 9am), if you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 5.9, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Prompting You To Trade This

14 May 13 23:28
In the opening race at York I like the dual code running gelding, Prompter, who is returned to the flat today following an early season jumps campaign in 2012. The 7 year old gelding finished 3rd in a similar race at this venue on his last flat outing from a mark of 97. That day the front three pulled clear of the field and he traded down to 1.21 in running. Today he returns to york in a similar race but from a mark of 94.  His trading record on the flat is excellent being available at the prices we would require in 9 of his last 10 flat races.

I would expect Jonjo O'Neill to have trained this horse specifically for a race like this and at a venue he clearly loves I'm expecting him to go very close. The faster they go up front the better for him but he has a smooth traveling style which allows him to stay on the bridle longer than most as the gallop unwindes into the final furlongs & the pressure comes onto his rivals. He should be right in the mix at this point with every chance and should at the very least go much lower in running at some point.

This is a pricewise race & Corals are going 14/1 about Prompter at 8.30am in the morning, this is the price I'd be snapping up.

Prompter can be backed at for 2 points at 14/1 at Corals (8.30am). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 11.0, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 9.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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Here's A Jazzy Trade

13 May 13 07:02
Getting a jump on the day today so this goes up early. In the 16.25 at Doncaster King Of Jazz should really have found himself an opportunity which he can take advantage of. Timeform’s comment is “expensive to follow” because he can travel very well through his races but his strike rate is pretty low with just one victory from 22 attempts. On the plus side that victory did come at this course!

In spite of rarely putting his head in front he has run with credit in three handicaps already this season which were of a better class than he runs in today. The drop of class should be exactly what he needs and I’m expecting a big run today. He can run prominently or be held up making him versatile regarding tactics, as a trading option he should go much shorter in running at some point regardless of the result and has every chance of landing his elusive 2nd victory.

King Of Jazz can be backed for 2 points at 6.5 now at the books (Victor). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 14.05 at Ascot I like the record of the Mark Johnston trained fillie Scatter Dice. As is the general profile for runners for this blog she likes to be towards the front of things & will probably try to make the running. Today’s race is a class 3 handicap and she’s been available to trade on in every one of her races at this level. The only times she hasn’t traded has been above this grade.

She’s had 2 races so far this season & made 2 solid efforts last time out trading as low as 1.29 in the run. With her form assured we can expect another bold bid from the front today. She stays further than today’s 1m4f so I’d expect Fanning to make it a strongly run affair & she should stay on up the Ascot hill. If Scatter Dice is still going well between the 3 & 2f poles then we should see her price shorten up for a trade.

Scatter Dice can be backed for 2 points at 6.5 now at the books (Victor, boyles). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 4.8, or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 4.1 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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In the 15.50 at Chester you'll be unsurprised to hear that I'm sticking with a front running horse that's drawn low & in this case the horse that fits the bill is the Scott Dixon trained Dr Red Eye. This gelding is much better on turf than on the all weather so I'd be inclined to not read too much into his form over the winter on that surface inspite of him winning at Wolverhampton on his last start. That was jut over a month ago & demonstrates his wellbeing for today's event.

Dr Red Eye loves to go from the front and performs remarkably consistently on turf being available to trade on in 6 of his last 7 turf outings. He's gone well at this venue before, the softer ground conditions today aren't a concern and with a great draw in stall 2 he's likely to make a bold bid from the front. If he's still at the front heading into the home straight then we should see his price shorten up somewhat to give us a trade.

Dr Red Eye can be backed now for 2 points at 8.5 at the books (stan james). If you want 30% profit then lay off 2.6 points at 6.2 or if you want 50% profit then lay off 3.05 points at 5.4 to give you a 1 point profit in all outcomes.

Best of luck.

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