SHAPESHIFTER

I'm changing how the days are rolled out to take on the noon starts.

I'll be posting the 'weak faves' earlier.  I'll try to do this all at once but if the schedule doesn't allow, I'll post the earlier races then double-check and post the balance.

I'll then follow with any selections to back, again, if necessary posting the early races then returning.

I'll continue to put updates in bold but it is worth checking in later since I tend to use the stop watch on the first few races these days then may follow with a later selections.

Evening racing, I will post if I will be playing.  Good luck on your day.


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WEAK FAVES FOR 29-November


Taunton
1:05 Suerte Al Salto (result: 2nd)
3:55 Miss Exhibitionist (unplaced)

Early prices: Suerte Al Salto 3.70, Miss Exhibitionist 4.10)

Uttoxeter
1:55 Me Fein (2nd)

Early prices: Me Fein 4.70

SUMMARY 3 for 3 on the day. Only one horse, Me Fein, remained fave at the off.  Suerte Al Salto and Miss Exhibitionist both drifted out to 2F in the markets. 


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Newbury
12:25 Aaim To Prosper (result: 2nd) -1.00
1:30 Polarbrook EW (5th) -1.00

Taunton
2:50 Billy No Name EW (fell at the last when 2nd) -1.00

Uttoxeter
12:45 Scholastica (1st BFSP 2.60 (2f)) +1.60
3:35 Henri Parry Morgan (6th) -1.00

SUMMARY A second day of 20% strike rate.  An LSP risk of 5 points would have returned a loss of -2.40 (-48%) 

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Despite the weather on Tuesday, I enjoyed the racing.  True, 2 winners and the third paying EW dividends will, of course, make any grey day a little sunnier but the breaks between races allowed me to enjoy each race more.

When it becomes 'rapid fire' and the sound of radio and television in the background, it becomes numbing.

Instead, some room to breathe and watch some good racing under challenging conditions for both horses and jockeys.



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WEAK FAVES FOR 28-November

Strike Rate:
Kempton: 14 Meetings: 20 for 26 (77%)
Lingfield: 13 Meetings: 21 for 28 (75%)
Wolverhampton: 16 meetings: 25 for 31 (81%)

Lingfield
1:00 Corporal Maddox (result: 1st BFSP 2.33)

Early Prices: Corporal Maddox 3.70

Wolverhampton
1:40 My Own Way (4th of 11)

Early Prices: My Own Way 4.60


SUMMARY Corporal Maddox 'slingshots' to the front ending the latest streak at 8.  The day finishes at 1 for 2


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
12:30 Tebbit EW (10th/10) -1.00
1:00 Dozy Joe EW (5th) -1.00
1:30 The Strig EW (1st BFSP 6.00/2.15) +3.00

Wolverhampton
1:10 Gran Canaria Queen EW (8th) -1.00
2:10 Sweet Vintage (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY Only 1 for 5 landing dividends, the winner being The Strig at 5/1 EW.  An LSP risk of 5 pts would have returned -1.00 (-20%)


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A grey day no matter where you are in the UK today.

I've spent the morning cross-referencing to see where I can find some 'edge' on today.  When the conditions go in the direction we're seeing today, I find it comes down to performance at key tracks that can offer up some insight since relying on how a horse performs on heavy in the past often is a bit random.




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WEAK FAVES FOR 27-November

Lingfield
No selections for today.

Early Prices:


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
1:00 Topaze Collonges (result: 1st BFSP 2.72) +1.70
1:30 De La Bech EW (1st BFSP 5.03/1.39) +2.00
2:30 Ya Hafed EW (3rd BFSP 7.20/2.52) +0.25

SUMMARY All three bets return dividends, De La Bech beating the top two in the betting moving in from 5/1.  An LSP risk of 3 points would have returned +3.95 (ROI 130%)

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Friday ended the week on a good note with both 'weak faves' landed and a 50% strike rate on backs.  23 bets were placed last week with half returning dividends and a quarter winning.

Presently, 'weak faves' is on a streak of seven and turned around from a rough start to the week including a drifter on Tuesday (Projectisle out to 6/1 / 4F in the market).

On the weekend, I met with my 'technical' wizard who is taking my 'dashboard' to the next stage.  It comes down to taking how I read form and we're developing ways to speed up analysis without compromising how one approaches the cards.


Good luck with your week. 


SUMMARY: WEEK OF 19-23 NOVEMBER

WEAK FAVES
8 for 11 selections correct for a strike rate of 73%
November is now 22 for 28 (79%)
The present streak is at 7 in a row

SELECTIONS TO BACK
23 selections on the week
6 winners (26% strike rate)
Including winners, 11 selections paid dividends (48%)
An LSP risk of 23 points would have returned +5.00 for a 22% ROI


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WEAK FAVES FOR 26-November

Kempton
2:05 Kells Belle (result: unplaced)
Early Prices: Kells Belle 3.35

SUMMARY 1 for 1 today as Kells Belle finishes outside the frame.  Streak is now 8 in a row.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
12:30 Thoresby EW (result: unplaced) -1.00
1:30 The Druids Nephew (3rd) -1.00
2:05 Miss Milborne EW (2nd BFSP 5.90/1.70) -0.15
3:10 Greenlaw EW (2nd BFSP 5.40/2.00) +0.00

Ludlow
12:40 Calaf EW (2nd BFSP 5.50/1.80) -0.10

SUMMARY No winners on the day though 3 of 5 returned each-way dividends after shortening in price.  An LSP risk of 5 pts would have returned a loss of -2.25 (-45% ROI)


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SUMMARY: WEEK OF 19-23 NOVEMBER

WEAK FAVES
8 for 11 selections correct for a strike rate of 73%
November is now 22 for 28 (79%)
The present streak is at 7 in a row

SELECTIONS TO BACK
23 selections on the week
6 winners (26% strike rate)
Including winners, 11 selections paid dividends (48%)
An LSP risk of 23 points would have returned +5.00 for a 22% ROI

The blog is published Monday to Friday before the first race of each day

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WEAK FAVES & VALUE PLAYS: 23-Nov


For me, an interesting week as I piece together 'new form' for the jumps season.

Still, with the earlier start, I'm still finding getting my rhythm going is one of the challenges.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 23-November

Haydock
12:45 Ubaltique (Result: 2nd)
1:20 Domtaline (2nd)

Early Prices: Ubaltique 3.20, Domtaline 2.86

SUMMARY 2 for 2 ends the week on a positive note after going 1 for 4 on Monday and Tuesday.  7 selections in a row brings November to 22 for 28 for a strike rate of 79%)



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Ascot
12:55 Barney Cool **EW** (result: 4th) -1.00
1:30 Minella Class (1st BFSP 2.88) +1.80
2:05 Lordofthehouse (4th) -1.00

Haydock
1:55 Poungach (1st BFSP 4.10) +3.00


SUMMARY Focusing on the first races of the day only returns finds 2 winners from 4 selections.  Based on the early odds, I expected Barney Cool to drift to 5/1, thus the EW angle.  Instead, it moved into 5/2 before off.  A LSP investment of 4 points would have returned a profit of +2.80 (70% ROI)



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Yesterday, all three 'weak faves' were successful.  For Emulating, the race unfolded the way I thought with the early pace making it difficult for the horse to find room early on to get into stride.  However, looking at the replay, the amount of power the horse has became evident as it shot too far out on the last bend then gained ground when straightened out. 

Though 3rd that day, those with speed ratings would be advised to rate it at the winning time rather than where it placed. 


Yesterday, complete opposite results over the two flat meetings.  Part of this is that the new surface at Kempton has meant readjusting how I relate past performances to the race the horse is faced with.


The ground is different and if you look at some of the horses that have won there at bigger odds the past few weeks, I'm finding some 'clues' to their improvement (a bit simplified):

- On good ground, they tended to finish badly on previous races because of how they ran during the first furlongs (bad start/slowly into stride).
- They have dropped down in weights.

My read is that they are able to get into stride earlier and better than previous performances on the new surface giving them significant improvement.

An example from yesterday: Royal Caper winning the 6PM at BFSP of 119/1 beating my selection, Girl Of Cadiz.


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WEAK FAVES FOR 22-November


Kempton
6:10 Light Burst (result: 5th of 9)
Early Price: Light Burst 4.20

Market Rasen
3:10 Billy Cuckoo (3rd of 5)
(added 1:45)

Early Price:Billy Cuckoo 3.40

SUMMARY 2 for 2 with selections today bring the week to 6 for 9 (66%).


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
4:40 My Sweet Lord EW (result: Unplaced) -1.00
6:10 Lord Ofthe Shadows EW (result: 3rd BFSP 7.60/2.20) +0.10
6:40 Estedaama (result: 5th) -1.00
7:10 Kingscroft EW (result: 4th) -1.00


Market Rasen
12:40 Westlin' Winds (1st BFSP 2.91) +1.80
2:40 Likearollingstone EW (1st BFSP 10.73/2.75) +5.70

SUMMARY Tricky conditions at Market Rasen but 2 for 2, both opposing favourites.  An investment into the evening card gave back part of the afternoon. A LSP investment of 6 points would have returned +4.60 (76% ROI)


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With racing about to get underway, I am posting the first four races of Lingfield then will update shortly.


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WEAK FAVES FOR 21-November
Strike rate:
Lingfield: 12 meetings: 20 for 27 (74%)

Hexham
2:10 Hobbs Dream (4th of 6)
Early Price: Hobbs Dream 3.60

Kempton
6:00 Derwentwater (unplaced)

Early Price: Derwentwater 2.82

Lingfield
1:00 Emulating (3rd)
Early Price: Emulating 5.10

SUMMARY 3 for 3 with 'weak faves' on the day. 2 of the 3 remained favourite and were available at shorter prices at the off than when flagged up.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
4:00 Place That Face (result: 1st: BFSP 2.35) +1.30
6:00 Girl From Cadiz EW (2nd: BFSP 8.80/2.43) +0.20
6:30 Belgian Bill EW (2nd: BFSP 5.80/2.39) +0.20
7:00 Moderator (unplaced) -1.00

Lingfield
12:00 Majestic Jess (result: unplaced) -1.00
1:00 Sunblazer EW (unplaced) -1.00
1:30 Sudden Wish EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY Tale of two tracks.  The afternoon in Lingfield produced no returns while the evening had a 75% strike rate.  A LSP wager of 7 points would have produced a loss of -2.30


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With racing about to get underway, I'm posting Southwell then will follow up with the balance of the day shortly.


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WEAK FAVES FOR 20-November
Strike rate:
Southwell: 9 meetings: 11 for 13 (85%)

Fakenham
2:30 Stentorian (result: unplaced)

Early Price: Stentorian 3.65


Southwell
1:20 Projectisle (1st BFSP 7.00)

Early Price: Projectisle 3.55

SUMMARY One for two strike rate.  Projectisle won after drifting from 5/2 out to 4F in a 7 runner race.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Fakenham
1:30 Roc De Guye (result: 2nd in photo but actually well beaten by 'first winner') -1.00

Southwell
12:50 Spitfire EW (1st BFSP 5.60/2.29) +2.95 (in from 7.00+)
2:50 Sir George EW (4th of 13) -1.00

SUMMARY One for three is enough to return a profit on the day.  And LSP investment of 3 points would have returned +0.95 (30% ROI)

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I ended up taking Friday because of a distracting morning.  But I took advantage to sit back and enjoy Cheltenham while reassessing my strategies and approaches.

As one who invests in sports betting, I want to grow as a player. 

With football, we start off playing 1X2.  In between, we look at correct score flutters and playing the over/under markets.

For myself, I started taking the attitude that if a team is going to win, I need to find bets where I felt the team would win by more than a goal so I moved into the asian market.

It evolved further where I research matches then spread "X" amount of pounds over several bets.  My attitude being that if you are going to put the time in researching, maximize your return.

Success with this strategy means anywhere from a 100% strike rate with solid returns to a loss that would be a bit more than if I had simply played 1X2.  And some bets land in the middle landing some dividends. 

As long as the value is there and the strike rate consistent, then returns are there on a monthly basis.

It's something that this blog should be illustrating, as well. 

Originally starting as a patch of horses that I felt wouldn't win their races, I looked beyond the linear approach of the lay and, as mentioned in previous postings, looked for what I thought would be the 'value back' with the fave eliminated.

The past two weeks, I tried to take this further by looking at the field and when eliminating the fave and listing what I thought was the value play.

It also was me trying to 'step up' my game as a punter. 

I take the approach that betting is a bit like boxing; you're at for X amount of rounds where you want to score points while waiting for your moment where the knock out punch is there and you take it.

So, for me, going a 'few rounds' gaining or losing a few points while waiting for an opening to lay down a solid play makes sense. 

But, continuing with the boxing analogy, I've been throwing too many punches.  I find a fave that I think is 'weak' but switch gears/strategy and hunt for the back that I think will run better.

If you look over just the past few weeks, it's a strategy that worked well.  But if the strike rate dips, the 'break even' days can roll into losses putting the winnings back into the pot.

So, yes, some days would bring a 70, 80, even 120 percent return but soon it got redistributed into the pool.

I plan on evolving and bettering my game.  It means occasionally going down a path or approach to see if I can take it on. 

But it also means that some rounds, if I'm not 100% sure of things, I'll throw a few less punches till I clearly see an opening that offers several blows can be landed to score points.



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[b]WEAK FAVES FOR 19-November

Leicester
1:10 Red Rouble (result: 1st BFSP 5.00)

Early Price: Red Ruble 4.40

Plumpton
1:50 Billy Merriott (result: 1st BFSP 3.30)


Early Price: Billy Merriott 3.45

SUMMARY Both of Monday's selections won their race, including Red Rouble who drifted to 3F in the betfair market


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Leicester
2:10 Court In Session (result: 3rd) -1.00
2:40 Minsky Mine EW (3rd BFSP 5.80/2.09) +0.05

Plumpton
2:50 On The Feather EW (3rd BFSP 5.50/2.01) +0.00

SUMMARY 3 plays on the day.  Court In Session was caught out when the final fence was bypassed BUT, in my view, lacked the extra that would have been needed in the finish.  Both EW's were prominent in the race but, again, lacked the finish needed to win and were in the frame.  An LSP invesment of 3 points would have returned a loss of -1.00 (-33% ROI)

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I got up this morning with the intention of 'regrouping' and posting some selections but a combination of ringing phones and other commitments, it became a compromise.

Also, based on the "ups and downs" of the past two weeks, I need to regroup on my 'strategies' and 'direction' I am taking my approaches.

As well, some excellent racing today and tomorrow and will take in as much of that as a 'fan'.

Back on Monday.  Best of luck with your weekend.