RC919

Roland Garros - Tennis Trading

10.00 - Bertens v Petkovic

Petkovic is usually the player here I would say yes back her, she starts well is physically very fit and has the attacking game to do her job, however she is not very well, she in her own words 'has made good friends with the toilet this weekend.' Bertens has huge potential and can really attack her opponent if she gets a good start.

I have Bertens at 2.51 and Petkovic at 1.66, betfair gives these two odds pretty close Bertens 2.62 and Petkovic at 1.6. This game could not go on value though, you really need to see how Petkovic is holding up after the weekend she had a grueling match, if she is looking poor then I will be looking to back Bertens early on.

13.00 Jankovic - Errani

Errani beat Jankovic recently in Rome on clay, although that clay is very strange, the H2H stands at 2-1 to Jankovic. Shes got the game to really take it here to Errani she can really return a serve, I have here as the value player here my only worry is she has been know to start slow at times.

Jankovic comes in at 1.27 and Errani 4.77 for me, betfair gives them 1.92 and Errani gets a 2.08. Jankovic on that is a value player here, she has the tools to see off Errani, I want to make sure she is starting right before getting in.

15.00 Verdasco v Murray

Murray has an incredible record against left handed players, he also kills Verdasco on the H2H 9-2, the only difference they have not met on clay, which Verdasco is natural on, he does tend to go missing in big Grand Slams though.

The odds I have for these then are 1.36 Verdasco, 3.81 on Murray, betfair has Verdasco 2.48 and Murray 1.67. Murray had a tough game yesterday and gets a longer rest. I will not be entering this one on value, I want to see Verdasco push Murray early on then if he does he will show a good entry point, I will then get in as long as it is over my value price and I will not be in long, this will be a chase of taking the ticks while they are there.

I have also created a group on Facebook where I post all the tennis trades, so please invite all your friends as well...

https://www.facebook.com/groups/Tennistrading/

Roland Garros - Betfair Tennis Trading

10.00 

Bertens v Pavlyuchenkova (Pav - I am not typing that name out many times)

These two have no H2H on tennis insight, Bertens is a tall heavy hitter with a serve which can really hurt but so does Pav she has the same style big serve, who loves to attack from the baseline, so this could potentially be a cracking game!

I have Bertens at 4.11 betfair gives her 1.91, I have Pav here as the value selection 1.32 by my sums and betfair gives her odds of 2.06, this could well be the best game of the day for me to trade.

10.00

Giorgi v Kuznetsova (Kuz)

Giorgi has won the last 5 of her 6 games when the opponent is a big server which Kuz is, Kuz has a lot to here game she mixes it up, attacks is fairly good on all courts as well. Giorgi prefers a hard court, she is young though and has a lot of potential she keeps cool under pressure and might surprise a few here with some points.

I have Giorgi as fav here with odds of 1.67 and Kuz gets a 2.50 from me, betfair gives Giorgi 3.3 and Kuz 1.42. There has been a few upsets here recently, maybe this could be another, I would be waiting a few games before entering this one.

12.30

Seppi v Monaco

The H2H on these two being 2-2, both having won one on clay each, Monaco recently beating Seppi at Rome, where the clay is very strange anyways. We traded Seppi nicely on Monday, this might be a good game to trade both closely matched in the odds as well...

I get them at Seppi 1.28 and Monaco 4.59, betfair will give you 2.26 on Seppi and Monaco gets 1.79. I want to see how Seppi starts as he can start slow, I could easily see this going to 5 sets... there could be a very good opportunity to lay the first set winner here, unless Seppi wins it emphatically.

14.00

Kohlschreiber (Kohl) v Istomin (Iso)

These two have met twice before with both times being on clay and it being 1-1, they are both in some pretty good form at the moment and Kohl has the slight edge as he can handle big servers, he does have a heavy topspin to his game though which might not work as well here today because the damp clay will slow his play up, like Munich a slower court where Iso beat him.

I get Kohl at 1.31 and Iso 4.22, betfair is very close 1.37 Kohl and 3.6 to Iso, I will wait for this to start and hope Iso gets a few games off German and that price can rise to give a better entry point. He has slight value at present but you cant back a 1.37 shot!

Enjoy...!

Good Morning,

There won't be any tennis from me today, got a lot to sort out and things to do this morning so will try and get a game or two looked at later....

Yesterday's Roland Garros

Seppi v Giraldo

Gave a lovely profit and did not really make us work to hard for this one!

Wozniak v Cirstea

This game had me in a loss to start with Wozniak took the first set, so I layed her here hoping for a Cirstea victory, so at that point I had a back on Cirstea and a lay on Wozniak I needed some from Cirstea that is exactly what I got the next two sets she won, I let this one ride out a little longer that usual due to the Cirstea really upping her game!

Stephens v Peng

This game I had so many emails about like wow she's going to drop the first set as she started poorly, she always tries harder in a GS tournament, she won the first set...trade out great profit!

Roland Garros

10.00 Seppi v Giraldo

I have not been trading Seppi a lot recently going against him a lot, but in grand slam tournaments he is 8-4 and Giraldo is 1-4, Giraldo also pulled out of his last match with a hip flexor injury, this could play a part here. Giraldo is a clay courter who has a big serve and very athletic and the 5 set format will suit him here but he has been known the start slow like Seppi who also loves a 5 set game so I am hoping for some good entry points.

I have Seppi at 1.50 and Giraldo 2.99, betfair has Seppi at 2.56 and Giraldo at 1.63. So on those stats there is some value on Seppi, I'd like to see how they both start though.

10.00 Wozniak v Cirstea

These two have not met but in qualifying Wozniak spoke of sharp pains in her calf, which is not good and signals a nerve injury, so hopefully Cirstea can capitalize on this, she has great endurance, athletic play however she can start slow BUT I have her at value here.

I have Wozniak at 3.72 betfair has her at 2.24, Cirstea at 1.37 while betfair gives her 1.72. Some Value on Cirstea here, she can do the job especially if Wozniak is not on it fully, that calf will give her a tough time as well if the injury rears its ugly head.

12.30 Stephens v Peng

Firstly I have this game as exactly the same odds as betfair does, does not happen very often. Stephens love grand slams and is known to actually put an effort in for them, at the price of 1.92 she does not seem to bad value here, Peng is playing a lot of doubles and doing well there so maybe her heart will not be fully in it however Peng leads the H2H 2-0 both of these coming on a clay court. I will be hoping for Stephens to put the effort in this game as it is a grand slam, she could be a good game to trade here.

Yesterday's recap

Well I gave a little intro about Nishikori being off it and not being 100% and he was not in no time at all two sets dropped and good profit.

Rosol I said I wanted to see how he served well he lost his second service game and then lost the first set easily, a tactic readers of my blog know I like to lay the first set winner as a lot of times you only need the threat of a break and the price shoots up enough to give a nice profit, here he battled to a second set TB giving a nice profit.

Cilic was a non starter at those odds, I said he was value compared to what my odds had him at I know some people who follow these posts backed him and would of made a good amount of ticks on him as he won the first and second set quite easily.

Roland Garros.

I will be cautiously getting involved today, I want to watch a few matches see how players are doing, Nishikori for example can be incredible on clay but he is not a safe game to work on at the moment as he has a hernia and agrees himself he is not 100% going into this tournament, he plays today against Klizan a decent player. Think it will be a bit quieter today for me, I want to just dip in and out of a few games get a feel for how players are doing and get an on overview.


10.00 Roland Garros

Rosol v Vesely

We traded Vesely last time out and I was to potentially trade his match here, both cal play on clay and Rosol is very good in 5 sets, but Vesely has won the last 5 from 6 when playing a countryman!

I have these at 1.90 Rosol and 2.11 Vesely, betfair comes in 2.18 Rosol and 1.82 Vesely. I want to see how Rosol serves before entering this game, he can serve very well

Cilic v Andujar

I had a little look over this game, its the same time at Rosol though, my sums get Cilic at 1.04 betfair gives him 1.30, there is no value backing him at that price at all but if Andujar comes out and attacks Cilic he might be able to take a few games off Cilic which could give a good entry point on Cilic.

So a tentative day today with no real clear opportunities, this can often happen on the few matches, need to get rid of some of the stragglers!

Review

13.00 Dusseldorf

Vesely v Karlovic

Now my sums get this out as value on Karlovic, but the way Vesely performed yesterday, he was unreal! Karlovic however has this big serve which is firing this week and has done very well to get here.

Vesely I have at 2.06 betfair has him at 1.46, Karlovic is at 3.1 on betfair and I have him at 1.94. There is some value on Karlovic here, especially as if his serve keeps going like it has been this week he could easily keep serving the games out and really push the young Czech here to a TB which would see that price of 3.1 tumble, he only needs a hold and a threat of a break for the market to over react and that will not be as high as 3.1.

Well big Karlo gave us a fright slightly here didn't he? I thought there would be a TB in this, the young Czech will be a quality player but when he did not convert the set point I know Karlo would have the mental strength to take the first set, if it went to TB you'd always fancy the stronger server.

Karlo took the first set and the match, giving a great start to the day and some nice green.

15.30 Nice

Delbonis v Simon

Another player we traded yesterday, Simon. He was pretty good yesterday but Delbonis leads the H2H and has been good this week so this could be a really good game to trade.

I have Delbonis as the value player here, my sums get him at 1.32 betfair gives 2.48?! Huge for a player who leads the H2H which was on clay recently and he won in straight sets. Simon is priced by me at 4.10 betfair giving him 1.66.

Well this was a crazy price for Delbonis and he did not disappoint taking the first set quickly and what seemed easy, I traded out just before he took the first set. Reason for this was I had a good green, key to trading do not get greedy!

I will be back Monday/Tuesday with another installment!

Vesely v Karlovic

Now my sums get this out as value on Karlovic, but the way Vesely performed yesterday, he was unreal! Karlovic however has this big serve which is firing this week and has done very well to get here.

Vesely I have at 2.06 betfair has him at 1.46, Karlovic is at 3.1 on betfair and I have him at 1.94. There is some value on Karlovic here, especially as if his serve keeps going like it has been this week he could easily keep serving the games out and really push the young Czech here to a TB which would see that price of 3.1 tumble, he only needs a hold and a threat of a break for the market to over react and that will not be as high as 3.1. 

15.30 Nice

Delbonis v Simon

Another player we traded yesterday, Simon. He was pretty good yesterday but Delbonis leads the H2H and has been good this week so this could be a really good game to trade.

I have Delbonis as the value player here, my sums get him at 1.32 betfair gives 2.48?! Huge for a player who leads the H2H which was on clay recently and he won in straight sets. Simon is priced by me at 4.10 betfair giving him 1.66

11.00 Dusseldorf

Vesely v Melzer

These two have never met so it could be an entertaining game, Vesely has some huge potential, he does have a very big serve and loves the clay court. Melzer is an old pro though and can handle a lot of players with big serves. This makes for a great game...

On the odds then I have Vesely at 1.55 betfair prices him at 2.12, which is a huge difference! There seems to be some good value on him here, Melzer 1.87 on betfair comes in with me at 2.82.

15.00 Dusseldorf

Seppi v Istomin

Seppi leads the H2H 5-2 between these two, but he is a slow starter as we all know, he can me massively consistent when he is in the groove though. Seppi has lost the last 4 in a row against the big serve which Istomin does have in his locker...The last time these two met Istomin beat Seppi too, the two times before when Seppi won Istomin made him work hard for it.

I have Seppi at 1.75 and Istomin at 2.33, betfair has Seppi at 1.57 and Istomin at 2.7. Potentially some very good value in Istomin.

17.00 Nice

Simon v Berlocq

Simon leads the H2H 4-3 but Berlocq has not half hit some form, he loves the clay and the heavy topspin game he likes to play will really help here. Although Simon is no push over he is a very good returner of serve and can defend well and equally add topspin to the ball and he is at home!

I have Simon as the heavy fav here with a price of 1.48 betfair gives 2.02, seems huge value for a player who can play as well as Simon. Berlocq is given a 3.07 by me, which betfair makes him favorite at 1.94.

12.00 Strasbourg

Stephens v Goerges

This is a game which could be a nice one, both with the big serve who like to attack. Stephens on her day is a great player, if she is not on it then we have a great chance here. Goerges is tall and hits that ball hard.

I have Stephens at 1.84 and Goerges at 2.20, betfair gives them 1.66 and 2.42. Slight value on Goerges here, would like to see how she starts first before entering this one.

12.30

Benneteau v Berlocq

This is going to be my favorite one to trade, 1-1 on the H2H, Berlocq the defensive clay court baseline, who is against somebody who I think he should see off, however Benneteau might just surprise a few here!

I have these at 1.43 Benneteau and 3.33 Berlocq, betfair has them 2.3 and 1.67. So good value for me on Benneteau, I will need to see some good signs from him before I part with any money. 

13.30 Nurnberg

Knapp v Hercog

These two have met once before with Hercog taking that match, this was on a clay court. For those who do not know these two are both big servers, who love the clay. They are both attacking baseliners, however I think Hercog is very clever and has ore defensive nature to her game when needed.

For literally the first time ever betfair pretty much agrees with me Knapp 3.6 and Hercog 1.33, I have them at 4.1 to Knapp and 1.32 to Hercog.

15.00 Dusseldorf

Becker v Monaco

Monaco the clay courter is playing a player who will not give up here and has a huge serve and can move around the court very easily. Monaco is on fire at the moment though...

Betfair has these at 4.6 Becker and Monaco 1.25, I have them at Becker 1.64 and Monaco at 2.56. I will be waiting to see how these start but it might well be worth a small lay on Monaco at 1.25.

17.00 Dusseldorf

Istomin v Nieminen

This one could be a corker as well, for me Istomin is a decent player playing well recently, the H2H does not look goof for him but he has a big serve which is firing is enough to get a closer game especially first set.

I have these at 1.27 Istomin and 4.77 Nieminen, betfair have them at them at 2.44 and 1.68. Huge value here for Istomin, need to see how he is playing really though before going in this game.

Nurnberg 10.00 Peer v Knapp

I think this will be a closer game than a lot of people think, people have Peer down as the overpriced player here. Maybe because she leads the H2H 1-0 and that was on a clay court, but Knapp put up a fight in that game and it was not straight forward.

Knapp has a huge serve for a lady and hits the ball flatly, if she can get on her game she will have the potential to see off Peer. I would be tempted to back Knapp from the start BUT and it is a big but she has not found a hot streak of form at the moment so I want to see how she gets on for a few games here, I have her priced at 1.66 betfair gives us some value there at 1.94 with Peer coming in at 2.04 on betfair and my ratings giving her a 2.51.

Strasbourg 14.00 Torro-Flor v Keys

Madison Keys the young american with some huge potential comes up against the not that much older spanish Torro-Flor. These two have never met but should be a good game, Torro-Flor is a defensive baseliner who can be incredibly consistent. The american is an attacking heavy hitter, she can be erratic but have the potential to step up here. Keys has the bigger serve which might come in handy.

I have Torro-Flor at 3.50 here and betfair gives her a 1.86. Which means there will be value in Keys, betfair 2.00 while I think she should be as low as 1.40.


Dusseldorf 17.00 Brown v Lu

For his style and what used to be his long locks I love the way brown plays the game, his big serve, the way he starts very fast, he can play on clay as well! He is erratic at times though and is coming up against Lu, who attacks the ball and is very athletic, but he is also erratic, so both of them together means cracking trading.

Brown has lost the last 4 out of 5 in his home nation of Germany, Lu losing the last 7 of 8 when facing a big server. Currently Brown is priced at 1.82 on betfair I have him a lot lower at a very low 1.36 he is a fast starter and can serve well maybe this could be cracking value. I have Lu at 3.78 betfair coming in at 2.12.