Politics
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How possibly could Betfair ever settle this as a Trump victory?
The rules state.
"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market."
Biden has got most projected Electoral College votes. it is agreed by all of those who call the projection.
I think any legal challenge by Biden backers in the small claims court are bound to win.
The state betting rules are different,
"Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2020 US presidential election?"
So here it is perhaps reasonable to wait until after a legal challenge/recount.
With the 2 different rules, they clearly should pay out on the Next President market, and they can do so BEFORE they settle all the State markets.
So if a pay out on Trump is impossible, it's a bit rich Betfair still allowing punters to back him at 11/1????
What am I missing here?
The rules state.
"This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market."
Biden has got most projected Electoral College votes. it is agreed by all of those who call the projection.
I think any legal challenge by Biden backers in the small claims court are bound to win.
The state betting rules are different,
"Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2020 US presidential election?"
So here it is perhaps reasonable to wait until after a legal challenge/recount.
With the 2 different rules, they clearly should pay out on the Next President market, and they can do so BEFORE they settle all the State markets.
So if a pay out on Trump is impossible, it's a bit rich Betfair still allowing punters to back him at 11/1????
What am I missing here?
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Nothing.
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trump could theoretically get enough votes discounted in the states he lost, to turn it round.
This would effectively end democracy in the usa and will lead to states not recognising his presidency and a civil war, so I don't think it will happen. |
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I'm sure this will go the same way as the previous thread, but I agree they should have settled for Biden based on a couple of things.
* "Projected results" is universally accepted to be media projections within this context. The media have done this for nearly 200 years now. * EC votes are determined by the popular vote in the State so these are intrinsically linked, so Betfair are clearly settling State markets off projections of these numbers. * They have a precedent for settling off media projections, by their own admission. I don't see how Biden backers could lose at IBAS, for example. Betfair say they reserve the right to wait for official confirmation, but they're still settling off "projected results" - so official confirmation of what? Projections? Ultimately the moment has gone. If they'd settled immediately on Saturday they could have just pointed anyone disputing the settlement to "projected results" and we'd have all moved on by now. But their own ridiculous statement last Friday brought doubt into the settlement and they have compounded that error by delaying. |
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So I'm not missing anything then.
Dave...."Trump could theoretically get enough votes discounted in the states he lost, to turn it round.". Maybe he could, but they've already projected, and as such should have paid out. The fat lady has sung. Sad for anybody who is backing Trump and cannot win. |
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Yep, highly unethical. They should have suspended the market on Saturday if they weren't going to settle it, or provided greater clarification as regards to the rules. I appreciate that caveat emptor applies in Betfair's markets, and they police themselves to an extent, but there will definitely be people betting into this market now who cannot win.
Can bet that the 2024 market rules will be very different! |
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Republicans drop Arizona lawsuit
The BBC now projects that Joe Biden has won Arizona - the first Democrat to win the state since 1996. It extends his victory over Donald Trump by an extra 11 electoral votes. Last week Republicans filed a lawsuit in the southwestern state asking for an audit of ballots cast on election day. The case was filed against Maricopa County, the most populous in Arizona. It did not make any allegation of fraud, but rather sought a hand recount of a few hundred ballots at issue. But on Friday US media reported the Trump campaign had dropped the case. A filing said that "the tabulation of votes statewide" had "rendered unnecessary" a judicial ruling - meaning that the margin of Biden's victory was too great for the result to be affected. According to the BBC's election results data, Joe Biden won the state by more than 11,000 votes. |
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I have been paid out on Arizona but not on Betfair
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I think, despite their previous actions, BF could maintain that the "projected electoral votes" are projected as a result of the state being won and that has to be finalised. However, there is clearly an enormous issue with them settling 43 states without the result being finalised. The optics of apparently giving credence to a shocking attempt to subvert democracy are also pretty bad. I think I might move to **** once this is over as much as possible.
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I take your point on board Dave but surely "projected winner" is a widely understood term in the context of elections and that would be a pretty easy case to argue? And if they wanted to rely on certified results, surely they should have said that? Obviously it was a massive oversight not to define the source of the projections but I think given previous evidence and the state markets it would be relatively simple to convince an adjudication service that they meant by the media.
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Again though, why they haven't come out and clarified this is anybody's guess. Crazy.
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^^I agree with that as I indicated- it is the definition of a commonly used term in the election and previously by BF in practice, but if for some reason they had to explain to eg the UKGC for some reason, why they hadn't settled, they would say that they were waiting because of the aggressive legal action.
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Yes, agreed, but I guess the counterargument would be that the potential for legal action is factored into those projections. Certainly at this stage there hasn't been anything to suggest that there is even a shred of evidence that will lead to the result being overturned.
As you say, I do think it's an incredibly bad look to be leaning into right-wing conspiracy theories about vote rigging, particularly in lieu of any evidence. |
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The legal disputes could alter the projections.
Hence delay. |
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But the projections have been made?
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Indeed they have.
But could change. I would think, off top of my head without ramping, I hope No offers biden 250/1 trump |
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press conference at 9 by trump, concession speech maybe ? its with fauci so me guess is no.
scores now on doors= 306 to 232. The same score Trump beat Clinton by in what he described as a landslide. Wonder if he admits this is a landslide ? |
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Isn't the main dispute over Dominion and the Pennsylvania result? I don't think that settled yet.
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No dispute as far as Dominion are concerned.
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you can bin Penn and Michigan and Biden still wins
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According to the MSM but they don't elect the President as far as I know.
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Election officials refute Trump's fraud claims
On Thursday, Donald Trump claimed on Twitter, without proof, that 2.7 million votes for him had been "deleted". The tweet was flagged - as many of his missives on the platform are these days. But hours later, there was a more significant rebuttal. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," a committee made up of federal and state election officials said in a strongly-worded statement. They added: "The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history. Right now, across the country, election officials are reviewing and double checking the entire election process prior to finalizing the result." Trump's claim about vote-deletion was linked to the initial miscounting of votes in one Republican-leaning Michigan county. Unofficial results there at first favoured Mr Biden but were later corrected in President Trump's favour. State election officials acknowledged what had happened, saying human error was to blame, rather than a software malfunction. |
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Desperation from you Foinavon
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I don't doubt it was the most secure, they are always looking to tighten security but the claim is of fraud which is a different beast. You may be right, but I doubt the Rep side is ready to concede yet.
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MSM do provide projections
Which, according to terms of this 600 million pound market, is what we are punting on. |
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Oh, the Republican side are ready to concede but they are terrified of Trump.
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Why do you say it's desperation? I'm just contributing to the debate. It matters not to me from a betting point of view.
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Foinavon, what is 100% certain is this market isn't settled on who occupies the WH on Jan 20.
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Come on Foinavon, you know fine well that it's the Associated Press that call the states when there is no doubt as to the winner.
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Betfair had no problem settling 43 states so far by the same method.
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They might report the result but that's not what I said, read my post again.
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Which one?
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Jesus wept.
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Well Foinavon, which one of your posts do you wish me to read again please?
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Bit of a plummy on Biden...
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Maybe a reaction to the presser? Although no indication he'll concede.
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Somebody running out of money?
Lol |
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I don't think there's any chance he'll concede, I don't reckon he'll even mention the election, will just be about Covid. Worst case scenario he doubles down on the fraud angle ahead of the march tomorrow.
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They need to wait for the results to be certified by the states or one of the candidates to concede.
It is not up to Fox News or CNN to settle the result. It needs to be done through official channels. Biden is still only 1.06 to win. 1.06 shots lose everyday on Betfair. There are recounts and legal challenges going on. A bookmaker could settle early where they are the counterparty and want some publicity like Fred Done used to do for Man Utd. But for a £0.6bn market where Betfair is not the counterparty. Grow up. |