Nov 13, 2020 -- 10:49PM, frog1000 wrote:

If I was running a PLC i would not take the risk trying to claim 'projected Electoral College votes won' is definitely a commercial media outlet when hundreds of millions are on the line. Would you?

Well yeah I would if:

a) that's what you've done every other year
b) it's the Associated Press
c) there is a tradition within US elections that the media projects the winner
d) this tradition has been going on since 1848
e) everyone knows what "projected winner" means in the context of the US election

Nov 14, 2020 -- 6:35AM, Dave23 wrote:

How do those on here, that suggest Betfair should settle the 2020 US Election on media projections alone, believe they should have handled the 2000 US Presidential Election and the Florida projections? The Networks first called/projected Florida for Gore and then for GW Bush; neither of these projections should have been made at the time they were made. If the other states had all went the way they ultimately did and had been been safely called at the time of the Florida projections, should Betfair have settled on the first Florida call, the second call or neither? Re the inauguration: Whilst I of course expect the market to be made void, as Trump will be inaugurated for his 2nd term, to demonstrate my faith in the great man, I've gone for a max bet (although I may not have done so if the maximum stake they accepted had been much more than £15.40). Clearly the odds compilers and most punters (money) expect otherwise.

Well Betfair have some discretion of course, they're not going to just instantly settle a swing state like Florida because it's called, they'd give that call a little time to breath, particularly when it was clear it was close.

Associated Press never called that race and the networks have also learned from this and are definitely more cautious now. It's not the same though, because that was one very close state. And it was 20 years ago.

There is no doubt about this result.

Nov 14, 2020 -- 11:21AM, Dave23 wrote:

Sergeant Cecil,The AP link you provided in your 23.58 post didn't work for me. However, I have no found the article to which you refer on their website [https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races]. Clearly, based on the sources I stated, there must be some dispute as to what counts as a call or perhaps whether an AP subgroup is part of the AP. I'll perhaps look into it later. Gore may or may not have obtained more [legal] votes in Florida. However, the Florida Supreme Court had no lawful justification for making the rulings it did regarding the recounts. Hence, the Supreme Court tossed out its judgements. Whether they were then correct in their later 5-4 judgement is more debatable.politicspunter,That's 'cos there was no cheating in North Carolina! More likely, it's because, as you and/or others have already suggested, it would be a little awkward for Betfair to settle sufficient states in favour of Biden that would take him beyond 270 EC votes and yet not settle the Next President market.

It's a tricky one but I don't think it's relevant really for this market when Trump requires multiple states that Biden has won by clear margins.

It is rather embarrassing for Betfair to be settling all the states Trump has won but not the ones he is disputing. I've said it before, but it's not really a good look to be leaning into right-wing conspiracy theories. That said, I think we're close to the end of this market now, the certification process is carrying on whether Trump likes it or not and results will soon be finalised.