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Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
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Replies: 275
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Frog, are Betfair in some sort of financial difficulty?
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I have no idea. Paddy Power Betfair is a Plc. Look it up if you are worried about it.
The fact and bookmakers have paid out has nothing to do with an exchange paying out. If the exchange decides to payout they are paying out with other peoples' money not their own. Different thing entirely. |
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You have no idea if Betfair are in some sort of financial difficulty? That worries me.
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Why does it worry you?
Are they? |
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Can't see them being in trouble.
I can understand the caution, to some extent But having had trump at 250/1 yesterday,i think he's 500/1 now and that's maybe a bit short. |
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Can confirm this market has now been settled on the Daq.
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764,853,236 Betfair delighted with proceedings
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67M traded on 1.05 biden alone. must be a massive record for a particular tick ?
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I guess we are looking at December 12th at the earliest and possibly January 6th the latest. When will the limited Wisconsin re count be finished? Maybe that will be the earliest they will pay. No worries. Nice to have something in the bank Sir!
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Amazed the Racing Post has not run a story on this.
It is filth of the highest order by Betfair not to make public a position. |
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they posted this 9 days ago, don't know if it was posted here
Betfair Help @BetfairCS · 10 Nov Hello there! We will wait until there is clarity around any ongoing recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results before we can settle the market. We will update our blog and social media channels when there is any further news. and this was posted on their blog US Election: Betfair market settlement scenarios Dan Thomas 02 November 2020 2:30 min read Joe Biden and Donald TrumpA guide on how Betfair will settle the US Election markets View market There are different scenarios for market settlement purposes on the US Election this week - here's how Betfair will treat them... 1) Settled on Tuesday Night This is possible but not probable. For this to happen, there would need to be a sizeable win for Joe Biden in Florida, coupled with three or four other key states reporting results faster than is anticipated. 2) Settled on Wednesday or Thursday This appears more likely than a Tuesday settlement, given the logistics of the counts. Significant increases in postal ballots will, for example, cause counts to be slower than previous elections. Betfair markets would remain active and trading throughout. 3) Contested Result A contested result includes a legal battle regarding re-count, the Supreme Court deciding the winner and any scenario other than a clean Electoral College vote majority. This could happen if we see a margin of less than 1% in a key state like Florida, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nothing would be conceded in this scenario and the projections couldn't be made given the margins involved. There is potential after a re-count that a result would be determined, but legal challenges would be likely should the state Electoral College total be the balance of power in terms of winning the presidency or not. There is no way of giving a clear view of settlement time in advance in this case, but these market rules will apply: "If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled." |
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Thanks, don’t think we had seen that on this thread but it’s very consistent with what one of their senior politics traders was saying on their podcast from a few days before the election. Shame I didn’t listen to it at the time, actually, as it might have clued me in to the possible trading potential even once the race was basically already over. Even then though, I don’t think I’d have predicted the level of support for the prospect of Trump winning despite being very obviously defeated.
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Yes, don't believe for a minute it has anything to do with above, it's filthy.
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As States certify results, you'd think the State markets still outstanding would be settled.
Even though this isn't really linked to the "projected" winner. Once Biden hits 270, you'd think the President market would be settled. That seems logical. |
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This endless bleating is getting really tiresome. Betfair isn't going to settle the Next President market whilst there is still legal uncertainty over the projected Electoral College winner. Are you people thick, or what?
Have sufficient States certified their election results for us to project an Electoral College win for Biden? The answer is demonstrably NO. I suspect Betfair will probably wait until all State election results have been certified, because if a single state doesn't certify their results, this could lead to a "contingent election" decision by the House of Representatives - a possibility which Betfair clearly references in the rules. |
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Lol
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They are held in an independent trust to be precise. Escrow is I suppose the effect with a market settlement, but the protection comes from the trustees who take no interest in the transaction, they just hold the money.
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and also lol to
I suspect Betfair will probably wait until all State election results have been certified, because if a single state doesn't certify their results, this could lead to a "contingent election" decision by the House of Representatives - a possibility which Betfair clearly references in the rules. |
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"This endless bleating is getting really tiresome. Betfair isn't going to settle the Next President market whilst there is still legal uncertainty over the projected Electoral College winner. Are you people thick, or what?
Have sufficient States certified their election results for us to project an Electoral College win for Biden? The answer is demonstrably NO." This is what we're talking about, do keep up. Georgia should certify tomorrow, Michigan and Pennsylvania on Monday. That's enough certified projected EC votes for Biden if you include states Betfair has settled as winners. |
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And time to ramp up the pressure ensuring that they realise that their rules state that faithless electors etc should be ignored.
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What legal challenges?
 Some people think this is going to be settled in the Supreme Court. It is such a joke it wouldn’t make Judge Judy! I do think the market will be settled before December 14th. The game is up. |
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Although I am more than happy for the show to go on. I am enjoying the Chump humiliation. I would like to see more of tucking my shirt in Guilliani and Fredo so Amrika realises these clowns should never ever run for elected office again.
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So Georgia has "certified" ....but
"Once the votes are certified, state law allows the Trump campaign to ask for another recount, given the narrow margins. The campaign has until Nov. 24 to make that request" So no Georgia settlement till at least then. |
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you think Chump has the money to pay for another recount? The first one was free under law!
This is going to cost the Republicans millions if they do challenge...good. Dead seabird! |
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The question is " how and why is this market gobbling up millions every day "?
Are people backing Biden @ 1.05 and hoping to lay @ 1.04 ? |
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Money laundering.
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Russians
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There are plenty of people who haven't read the market rules who are laying biden, because they think they will win if he isn't inaugurated on 20th jan. They are being accommodated by people who have read the rules.
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not really that sad
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It would be a bonkers bet anyway though!
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Guess you mean £2k red on Biden though.
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Yes, apologies.
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