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Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
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Replies: 275
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If team Biden were to declare they were launching legal action to overturn the North Carolina result, would Betfair unsettle the market?
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On "Popular Vote Winner": I know it's a much smaller market but seriously how can Betfair justify not settling this with almost two weeks gone? The margin in Biden's favour is north of 5.5 million votes! Besides the rules state This market will be settled upon popular vote percentage figures as published by CNN. By referring to CNN's figures, there's a 0.0000% chance of this ever being settled with Trump winning, yet you can still lay him at 25-30. Got 20 k locked up in that market myself. Oh, the incompetence of Betfair!
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That's terrible wording for that rule as well. Do CNN display their results to a decimal place?
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Just checked, they do, but why would you even bring the possibility of a dead heat into question?
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Yes, I wonder if they have any clue at all. SC, I hope you are right that they are going to finalise these markets soon. Looking back at similar political markets in the past (plus Formula 1, Cycling, Juventus as winners of Serie A one year etc, etc), they will of course take forever to settle.
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If they counted every vote in America for Trump that hasn't been tallied so far in the popular vote market, Biden would still win.
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Crete - it doesn't look like they do mate. As you say this is not the first time Betfair's rules have caused confusion and embarrassment but it should be the last. I don't know why they don't employ someone specifically for this purpose; to create watertight, unambiguous rules for markets such as this. Maybe they do? But if so they need their P45.
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They did employ someone who knew how to make these rules so that they could settle asap - hence the CNN rule in popular vote and "projected electoral votes" in the president market. purple simply state "next president" so they can't settle till jan 20th. If BF wanted that they could have adopted the same rules.
They then lost their bottle. |
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Do you think it's just an oversight then? It seems mad to state the method of settlement but not define from where that is drawn, surely must have just been an error?
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They have settled 44 states now but won't settle the other 6 using the same rules as the others
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Yes Sergeant, if they used CNN for he popular vote, why not just quote, abc, cbs, nbc, or all of them even, for the projected vote.
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Not an oversight, they know what the rules state. They (think) they are losing nothing by waiting till there is complete certainty, but they have lost my business for any market that has sufficient liquidity for my needs and I doubt I'm alone.
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I meant an oversight at the time the rules were written, dave. As Kev says, they have stated their sources for other markets, why not this one? Surely must have been an error by someone.
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Dave, you are not.
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no the rules were meant to be settle on the press projections, there was no oversight in writing them
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Trouble is PP, you get markets on here, and liquidity on here for politics, that you just don't get elsewhere.
I tried to put a bet on NY for the state betting at 1/50 with PP, and my max was £50, similar with California, Hawaii, etc etc........on here, well 5000 @1.04/1,03 is easy, and free money. So there is no option really. Hills & Sky even lower amounts. I'm more certain than 1.01 I'll be paid out on the President market, it's just annoying isn't it. |
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There is another exchange option available...
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One who paid out long ago on Presidential winner, states, Electoral college totals, popular vote...
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I’m sure BF would love to settle this market, I’d guess their projected comission will have stayed pretty much the same over the last week despite the increase in matched bets.
A Georgia recount sounds a logistical nightmare, it’s not lile the ballots are sorted as they would be in the UK, plus those large ballots are great for asking multiple questions, legalise pot? Marry ya sister? etc, but a pain to sift through. |
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Haven't used my purple account for ages, maybe I should have a look again.
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They make you sign some declaration about best execution if you haven't been for a while - make sure that you have standard screen resolution or you won't be able to tick the "I agree" box.
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Cheers Dave.
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Are people suggesting that
when a decision to settle is made then bets are placed Before the button is pressed? That would be naughty! |
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They did employ someone who knew how to make these rules so that they could settle asap - hence the CNN rule in popular vote and "projected electoral votes" in the president market. purple simply state "next president" so they can't settle till jan 20th. If BF wanted that they could have adopted the same rules.
Some rules for settlement on the odd non politics markets have been written for them, more or less, by the punters. Such as next manager markets on football |
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You only have to look at the odds to understand the uncertainty over states like Wisconsin where Biden is 1.08 to win. Why would Betfair settle it early?
NC on the other hand has been settled because there are no recounts or disputes there and Trump won easily. He was 1.01/no offers to win it. Betfair appear to have been willing to take the risk settling it. |
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The prices are irrelevant. Everyone else has settled.
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Betfair Sportsbook have settled bets on the state of Georgia. Meanwhile Betfair Exchange are still taking bets on the outcome
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You only have to look at the odds to understand the uncertainty over states like Wisconsin where Biden is 1.08 to win. Why would Betfair settle it early?
Are you joking? |
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There are no live suits in nevada and biden one easily, not settled.
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won easily ffs
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The only company that has not settled is Betfair
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Apologies if I missed it....but irony of ironies, has anyone asked Betfair for a market on when the next President Market might be settled?
I do wonder what will tip them over the edge? |
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I mocked one up myself last Friday and had next week (i.e the current week) as 25/1! Although I didn't have anything for after this week so probably would have had to void; sloppy rules just like Betfair.
I think now they're going to need either a concession or the States to certify and they'll settle one-by-one until it's mathematically impossible for Trump to win based off their settlements. |
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It's mathematically impossible for Trump to win and has been for some time.
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I agree, although I meant in terms of EC votes based of Betfair's market settlements.
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A sportsbook is not the same thing as a 'non-seeded' exchange.
Betfair sportsbook can take the risk that Georgia will not be reversed on the recount when it is 15.0 to do just that. Betfair exchange cannot payout on behalf of all their losing punters on Georgia bets. That would be completely unfair on those losing punters during a recount and/or legal action. I am amazed some people fail to understand the difference between a sportsbook or a 'seeded' exchange to the Betfair exchange. |
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It's the same company mate.
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frog, Georgia is bad enough but there is no legal challenge/recount in Nevada. It wasn't even flipped by Biden, Hillary won it in 2016. Why aren't Betfair settling that market please?
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327956491056279552
Trump admits Biden won. |