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Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
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Replies: 275
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How can it drag on for months?
There is a timeline for states certifying results. Once that is legally complete surely we will know the projected EC votes? |
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In just over 2 months the next Administration will start.
Just be patient for a few more weeks max. |
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Well Trump's whole strategy is trying to delay the confirmation process, so there's that. There's also the chance he just goes total dictator and just refuses to leave, as unlikely as that is.
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The projected votes are all over press.
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Cecil you are now making political points rather than looking at the rules of the market.
This is not about who we WANT to win. It is about following the rules. Anyone sitting in Betfair's shoes would be doing the same thing. They would not press the settle button on £600m market when the favourite is 1.07. |
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The prices of the current contracts are irrelevant.
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What are you on about Frog?
It's Betfair that are making political points because their rules say they settle on the projected winner, Biden. They are giving credence to ludicrous and baseless right-wing conspiracy theories about voter fraud. |
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Frog, Would I be correct in saying you are employed in the gambling industry?
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The projected EC winner can only be made once the states have certified the results or a candidate has dropped out.
Once the results are certified by the states we can add up the likely EC votes for each candidate and project a winner. As faithless electors are ignored for the market it can be settled at this point. Until then it is all speculation from the media. The officials in each state certify the results to provide information for the projection not the various partisan media outlets. Be patient. |
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Total hokum, that is not what it says in the Betfair rules. Besides, Betfair have already settled 43 states under their current rules.
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Again, I disagree. "Projected winner" is a well known phrase in US election parlance and it does not refer to the certification of votes by each state.
It's why this market was settled the next day last year. |
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What have state betting got to do with the next president market? Different rules.
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Cecil is Biden the President Elect currently?
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Why haven't Betfair settled the remaining 7 states? They settled the first 43 no problem.
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I would say yes, but that's irrelevant to the settlement of this market.
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Michigan might go to a large scale recount or re-voting since its dominion based computer systems seem to have been connected to the open internet against all rules.
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No it won't.
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It won't because you can't do that on Dominion, which has been debunked a million times already.
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Cecil, Biden is not the President Elect but in 'US election parlance' many of the people in the media are using that term. Clinton conceded the next day last time. It was not contested.
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lol johni nonsense
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Frog, Why haven't Betfair settled the remaining 7 states? They settled the first 43 no problem.
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Cecil,
If Trump concedes or Biden concedes then the election is over. Put yourself in Betfair's shoes. It is a PLC liable to shareholders. This is a market worth hundreds of millions of pounds. The election is disputed. The results are not certified. The words 'projected results' could be understood in different ways. I understand it differently to a number of people on here. It makes sense they wait for more certainty. Why would Betfair take the risk? Also the longer it goes on the more news stories they get out of it  |
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Nothing in the rules regarding conceding.
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The more news stories? Yes, rotten ones for them.
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Frog, Why haven't Betfair settled the remaining 7 states? They settled the first 43 no problem.
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Can we all agree that BF had an age to word their market properly and failed terribly.
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Yes pp, like I said earlier they are very happy to accept AP on settled states. If they're not settling these 7 then they shouldn't be settling the other 43.
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If Trump concedes I do not think Biden will be 1.07 for long.
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Totally irrelevant again.
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Which of the 43 states do you think Betfair have taken a risk settling on?
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Frog, why aren't Betfair settling the remaining 7 states using the same rules they settled the first 43?
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My speculation would be they are happy to payout early where they think the result is very unlikely to be change but are holding back where there is a chance things could change.
In racing they settle before the weigh in if they can see there is very little chance of a stewards. If there is a chance they wait to check. Reversing a payout is a nightmare. reversing it on big markets much more so. Be patient and be realistic. |
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This isn't waiting for a stewards, Frog. This is they've weighed in and they're waiting to see if the horse fails a drug test at some point in the future.
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Concessions can be withdrawn
as in 2000. |
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Every horse race they settle on is the projected winner as opposed to the official one, so I don't think that's a road you want to go down!
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I have plenty of patience. Why won't they settle North Carolina? Called for Trump, result not disputed.
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The point is frog given the market rules, they wouldn't be taking any risk settling the presidents market and if they were "wrong" can always fall back on the market rule wording. If it goes bad the usa will be in a state of civil war, so i doubt ppl will be that bothered at ibas.
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Why won't the settle Nevada? Called for Biden. Result not in dispute.
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