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Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
Next President settlement, without ramping our conspiracy theorists please.
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Replies: 275
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frog, as far as I am aware, only Betfair have not settled their markets.
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As far as I am aware Betfair are the only place that has a £0.6bn market on the outcome.
What happens if they settle and the 1.06 shot loses due to a legal change or withdrawal of a candidate through death (or something else) before the result is certified? Very easy for bookmakers to take a gamble on paying out as Biden is a big winner for most of their books. |
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AP calls N Carolina - let's see BF settle that one now
frog - what's your view on BF settling state markets when it is just the AP call and not certified? They have done this numerous times. |
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Smarkets had a huge Presidential market, in hundreds of millions I believe. They paid out no problem, along with every state called.
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Irrelevant frog. The market is settled on "projected winner", which is Biden. And yes, Fox, CNN, AP, et all HAVE settled this market in past years, and 43 of the States this year.
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Maybe the guy who presses the
settle button is on suspend duties on Armenian div 2 footy? Anything is possible I read it on a forum |
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Projected by who?
Fox projected Arizona days ago. Others did not. Would you expect Betfair to settle Arizona because someone on Fox decided Biden had won the state? Others, including the most powerful man in the world, may have projected Trump had won. Be patient. The market is still live. The horses are entering the home straight but there is still a fence for Biden to clear. Hence the 1.06 and not offers. |
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Fox were wrong to call Arizona. No one else did. Bookies didn't settle.
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But they have now as everyone has called it.
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327350069947936768
Wonder if Betfair will settle these States based off this? |
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Except Betfair
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Bookmakers can settle what they like based on their own risk.
Betfair would be crazy to settle a live market where the favourite is still trading at 1.06. Why would they do that? What happens is the 1.06 ultimately loses. Do they try and get the cash back from peoples' accounts to resettle it or payout from their own pocket on the actual result? |
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Well no, because Biden has won according to the rules and the settlement stands.
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We will not be able to make a projection of EC votes for certain until all the states have certified their results.
Once those results are certified we will be able to project the EC vote numbers. Before then, unless someone concedes, this cannot be done. |
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There is no reason at all for Betfair not to settle the market according to their rules. They also haven't settled multiple states where there is no dispute regarding the result.
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frog, who is we?
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I have been paid out on exact EC votes by Smarkets.
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Anyone. How can you know for certain until the results are certified what the EC results will be?
Betfair has drawn the line there in case of 'faithless elector' in the EC. Just be patient. |
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Faithless electors do not count frog. Who is we? Do you work for Betfair?
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Good for Smarkets. There are run in a different manner (seeding?).
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frog, do you work for Betfair?
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No. When I say 'we' I mean anyone.
'Projection' is about the media. It is about actual certified results or a candidate conceding. That is my understanding of the rules. |
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frog can you answer my earlier question? how can BF settle some state markets which haven't been certified then?
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Frog, Would I be correct in saying you are employed in the gambling industry?
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This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
'most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.' will be known once the states certify their results. |
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Smarkets settled NPM on Sunday and Trump ECV today
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Frog, Would I be correct in saying you are employed in the gambling industry?
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I'm getting a little p1ssed off with it all if I'm honest. I'm 15k green with 8k red, most of it in the Trump EC vote, I've already wasted 1k of green because I just don't trust those yanks.
Trump need to man up an feck off. |
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Hank,
The rules for state betting appear to be: 'Which party will win the popular vote in the named state at the 2020 US presidential election?' I suggest that in markets where there are big wins for one party or another they are happy to take the risk settling. Also it is a party and not a candidate. Not sure conceding or a candidate pulling out would make a difference. |
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What, like Pennsylvania and Nevada? Sorry, that argument doesn't make sense.
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Frog, Would I be correct in saying you are employed in the gambling industry?
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Why the 20 questions on repeat?
I am just giving my opinion on the rules having been on Betfair since the beginning. You have to see it from their point of view. |
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Frog, just give me an honest reply please. Are you employed in the gambling industry?
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I am not prepared to give personal information other than to say I have been involved in the gambling industry for decades.
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My personal opinion is given their rules Betfair would be crazy to settle the market currently.
It is a live market. If it wasn't Biden would be 1.01 to lay with no offers to back. Everyone else would be 1000.0 to back with no offers to lay. |
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That's not true either, there are numerous reasons why Biden is not 1.01 including people laying off, loons fancying Trump out of blind faith, finite liquidity with big hitters already tied up, the prospect of the market dragging on for months, etc.
Pretty much everything you've posted in here tonight has been nonsense. |
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Market hasn't looked right for a while.
Folk on here betting without understanding the rules. So It's hardly surprising, is it? Misleading title for market. 1.01... 2024 is better defined |
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The 2024 will have rules coming out of its backside. Every eventuality will be covered. To be fair these rules would be fine with the addition of just five words: "according to the Associated Press".
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Read through most of the thread - have green on Biden 39 quid
 - after getting spooked during the night of election count. You'll see my post on it when Trump hot 1.35 or whatever, I couldn't believe it. Decided to get out .I dont expect to get paid yet, as frog100o said rules as clear - its on projected electoral college votes. The Trump campaign is looking to mobilise 'faithless electors'ave no chance in succeeding. However even though 0-6, 0-5 with 4 break points against, or - 5-0 down injury time, the match is not over..... and should not be settled. 1.07 great price though  |